Live game in Casino, blinds 2.5e/2.5e
Villain is young hooded player, about 25. Sober, silent, observing game.
Seems to be regular, have seen him few times in same place.
He has been steady winner, not showing bad hands in the past, rarely going to showdown. Made one great call with second pair against a bad player. He covers me, showed a set once for a big win.
I've played few hours and not shown anything out of the order. Slowly grown my stack to 515e. I think he views me as a competent player, we haven't played in same hands that would have gone far.
Villain opens CO to 7.5e
Hero calls from BB with T
7
I'm thinking he has a wide range and he is good enough player to fold to a raise on flop or turn. Also we are very deep, over 200BB effective stack.
Pot: 17.5e
Flop: 4
5
8
Check, Villain bets 15e, Call
Villain would CBet his entire range but his betsize is bit big so I am thinking to not check/raise him here but instead look if the turn card allows me to do something, also I can always hit the gutshot I got.
Pot: 47.5e
Turn: J
Check, Villain bets 35e, Call
Now I'm 100% sure he is value betting a good hand and J gave me very sneaky double gutshot. His bet is large and I quickly fudged that I need to get atleast 80e from him on the river if I hit my hand just to break even and made optimistic call that I can get paid off if river card is good.
Pot: 117.5
River: 9
(BOOM)
What should we do? Lead in or go for check-rase?
My stack left: 457.5e, Villain covers me.
QT would be nuts but I don't think there is any QT in his range, Q
T
would be disgusting but apart from that I think I have the best hand.