Hero is in BB with 3d 4d.

OMC raises in MP to 20. Hero calls BB.

Flop Ad 5c 7d. Hero checks. OMC bets 20. Hero?

Preflop is close. This OMC in particular has paid off 3 big barrels with AA on T976x no flush on a previous hand so I think I can call and try and hit something. Once OMC bets the flop, I can pretty much narrow this OMC's range down to AK, AQ, and AA.

Here's the problem. Do I raise and try and "build a pot" (I don't think this OMC would ever 3-bet unless he has exactly AA) or do I check call and potentially lose money should I turn or river the straight? The problem here is that if the frontdoor flush comes in, I'm not sure if he'll pay it off but he will guarantee pay off 3 streets if a 2 or 6 comes in.

What would you do?

For the record, I raised to 80. OMC called. Turn 3o. I bet 150. OMC called. River Ko. I checked OMC checked back with AQ.

either way is fine. you know that you don't have any FE from your V, so by inflating the pot, you are just creating more variance for yourself. since you are a 4 to 6 dog and OOP, you probably should just want to play a smaller pot.

Lol at pre

Confused at how this is Lol at pre. Against this specific villain, I would play 3d 4d over Td Jd simply because I have implied odds with my low suited connector. In addition, if the board came TTx I wouldn't get paid as often as if it came 33x. When a villain is so strong preflop and is likely going to play straightforward and we are playing so deep, I think we can definitely play our baby suited connectors.

He paid off 3 barrels with AA on a 4-liner but won't pay off on TTx.

Hm.................

I would take J high over 4 high anyday (JTdd vs 43dd)

Flop seems like a pretty obvious call if he can't fold overpairs to aggression.

never folding this hand in the bb against a nit 300bb deep

The reason I thought flop was interesting is because we could potentially be raising for (value??) because we are ahead of his range. 3d 4d has 53.64% equity against a range of AA, AQ+ and 55.3% against AQ, AK (assuming he sometimes slowplays AA) and is favored over all combos of AQ and AK. Is this a situation where we want to put more money in while "ahead"? or am I completely misunderstanding a concept.

Fold pf. Raise on the flop is fine, but once he calls, the turn is spew. He can't both fold to that bet and pay you off when you hit.

I can get behind a PF call with 33 or 44. But calling 43s OOP and hoping for a miracle flop seems like burning money.

Being able to narrow villain’s range early in the hand gives us a huge advantage. I’m calling anything playable with an SPR of 40 against a preflop nit. It is possibly even provably correct with a solver after assuming his range.

It's difficult for me to see how calling 43s can be profitable, unless this OMC can be bluffed off of scary boards.

Without fold equity, we're just playing BINGO with a crappy hand OOP that's going to need A LOT of help to win.

minimal fold equity vs this player type; however I'm forced to wonder how this OMC would respond to an overbet OTR after you bet the turn?

Can this guy call down with one pair? , he can certainly have AK so maybe K isn't best river , but we are fairly confident he is calling a normal size bet from 1/2 to full psb

I should've bet less on the turn as a blocker bet. The problem is, if I check I think he is betting on the turn every time. I think I should bet like 100 so I could set a price to draw rather than check to him and potentially have to face a large PSB. The thing is, I think that my hand on the turn still has around 40% equity so I still wanted to have the betting lead in case I hit.

This sounded ridiculous to me, so I checked it. A ~14% range of 22-QQ, Axs, BBs, suited connectors down to 43s/53s has an EV of $7.64 in a $40 pot with $1500 stacks vs a range of JJ+, AQ+, so losing a bit over $12 with every preflop call on a board of K62 with a flush draw

We aren't saying we have more equity in that situation, but, if you knew your opponent had that range, it makes it far easier to play against on various board textures especially if you know that he's playing ABC postflop. In addition, you would have massive implied odds should you hit because you know that his range consists entirely of overpairs in certain spots.

I'm a bit confused. Did you only solve one flop? Which bet sizings did you use (the optimal strategy definitely includes overbetting for us). I understand that it takes a lot of computing power to solve from the flop, but one flop doesn't represent the situation very well, and K62 is not a very good flop for us, either. Villain is uncapped and we only have six combos of sets, and the board is pretty static, which favors villain.

Also, if we have an EV of $7.64 that means we're losing $15-$7.64 = $7.36 per pre-flop call, no? Regardless, that's a lot, so it's possible I'm way off on this one. I'd love to study this spot myself, but I don't have a solver yet. Maybe it will push me to purchase or make one.

Edit: What sounds ridiculous? The stuff about information advantage or that it applies in this spot?

this seems perfectly fine to me all around, giving up on the K is reasonable but I think we can fire away on a lot of other cards

I would have probably fired the third bullet tho, i would bet every card but the Ace i think but i don't know if that's good or not but the rest of the hand seems good, definitely not folding pre

it's not really necessary to bluff the river in a vacuum but i definitely want to be the one always bluffing, there is some metagame in showing this down as a bluff so yeah, I'm always betting the river

too many outs

Pre is way more than fine against a dude who can't fold AA to 3 streets of aggression and being 300bb deep, raise pf isn't even that big. If we flop a straight, trips, or two pair, he will pay us off hugely. Flush maybe not so much since it's obvious but who knows, he lol called 3 streets on a 4-liner.

Flop raise is "standard" in theory but against said opponent and your range assumptions (AA, AK, AQ), your flop raise is super spewy, and I don't know why you're expecting a double barrel here ott on a blank is a good idea against said range and vs dude who can't fold to save his life.

Agree with all of this. Call pre is fine this deep to defend our BB and close action.

Turn barrel is pretty spewy considering how illogical it is: we called in the first place because of the fact that V has trouble folding. Flop is draw heavy and turn is a brick

It's better to defend this hand preflop is villain is often giving up rather then not folding an overpair. If he has limping range from MP, and only opens premiums, I'd fold.
Nit will check back most of his overpairs, and can give up with some premium broadways straight away, so we are dealing with strong cbet range on the flop out of position. And as you described villain, it will be hard to get him to fold AJ-AK, unless you are ready to pot turn&overbet river.
Fold preflop, take a passive line on a flop.