Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-15-2019, 04:04 AM   #1
momo_uk
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,288
2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

2/5 $1500 eff at the Wynn vs aggro-maniac whale (raising/barreling every hand like crazy, thinks heís tricky and will get paid off when he hits big, but apparently itching to give his stack away)

V opens $35 in CO, H 3! to $140 in SB with AQo, V calls (obviously, read ATC)

Flop ($285): K94r

Ideally, we would want to just bet small-ish on this texture, but thereís a chance this particular V will see it as weakness and raise as a pure airball bluff (seen him do it before).

OTOH, betting big once wonít get him off any pair or gutshot, essentially putting us in a crappy spot OTT as we will have to xf often since he is guaranteed to fire if we check. So betting once vs this player seems like lighting money on fire.

He would probably give up his apparently weak range to a double barrel OTT (excluding Kx that likely wonít fold) but that would turn out to be pretty expensive to find out.

What line do we take vs this maniac? Do we just close our eyes and bet $125, $275 and then check fold river? It would suck to punt off $540 to him doing this though.

What about the risk of getting our small cbet being bluffraised OTF? Yes, we will have stronger hands in our range too when we cbet small and would love to induce the bluffraise, but we arenít going to play this guy again and he is ready to bust out soon. So is worrying about my range really that critical in this spot?

What are we doing with QQ-TT in these spots?

Last edited by momo_uk; 02-15-2019 at 04:19 AM.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 08:05 AM   #2
QuadJ
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 4,777
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Against a real maniac you need a good portion of give up and check/fold this flop. With a real maniac you need to wait till you have value and then take him to town. If he starts folding to your straight value then you can mix in some bluffs. You had a strong hand preflop and whiffed the flop entirely, so a good portion of give up necessary.

I would also throw in some half pot c-bets. Partially for balance and partially because even a maniac is likely to fold the king high flop if he has air. Small c-bets don't generally work against a maniac, they just induce raises. Save them from when you want him to raise.

I would mix between the two. Roughly equally to start but you should bias the ratio based on how much he gives up if he missed the flop entirely. If he is the sort to call with air on the flop and see what you do on the turn then c-bet less often and barrel any turn when you do c-bet. If he is floats less then c-bet more often but give up on the turn some of the time.

If he is the sort to drag things out to the river before giving up then wait until you have some value most of the time. Don't raise him much preflop and don't c-bet air very often. If he won't give up you won't have trouble building a pot when you do hit so you need to just be patient and wait till you do have value.
QuadJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:11 AM   #3
momo_uk
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,288
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

If I check flop, heís 100% betting flop with ATC though.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:29 AM   #4
XtraScratch8
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,159
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ View Post
Against a real maniac you need a good portion of give up and check/fold this flop. With a real maniac you need to wait till you have value and then take him to town. If he starts folding to your straight value then you can mix in some bluffs. You had a strong hand preflop and whiffed the flop entirely, so a good portion of give up necessary.

I would also throw in some half pot c-bets. Partially for balance and partially because even a maniac is likely to fold the king high flop if he has air. Small c-bets don't generally work against a maniac, they just induce raises. Save them from when you want him to raise.

I would mix between the two. Roughly equally to start but you should bias the ratio based on how much he gives up if he missed the flop entirely. If he is the sort to call with air on the flop and see what you do on the turn then c-bet less often and barrel any turn when you do c-bet. If he is floats less then c-bet more often but give up on the turn some of the time.

If he is the sort to drag things out to the river before giving up then wait until you have some value most of the time. Don't raise him much preflop and don't c-bet air very often. If he won't give up you won't have trouble building a pot when you do hit so you need to just be patient and wait till you do have value.
I was going to suggest maybe not 3!ing pre against this player and waiting until you have value OOP because youíre going to whiff this flop and be in this spot often. I was in this exact same spot the other night twice and both times I wished that I hadnít of 3! pre (I won one of the two hands, but lost money overall because I cbet big on the one I lost and then it checked down after to the river with me losing.)
It feels pretty nitty to just flat this hand here, but I think against this type of player it might be easier to play if youíre comfortable in your postflop game (i feel like you def are).
I still donít know though. Itís probably correct to mix in some 3!s here, or your 3! range against this player gets completely capped.
Itís a tough spot for sure.
As for the actual hand, I think cbetting half pot about half the time feels right to me, but youíre probably just giving away more money most of the time you do.
XtraScratch8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:31 AM   #5
XtraScratch8
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,159
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
If I check flop, heís 100% betting flop with ATC though.
I think because of this check/call most of the other times you donít cbet.
Or just throw up the white flag and wait for the next chance.
XtraScratch8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:31 AM   #6
DooDooPoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 4,379
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Vs. a Maniac/Fish/non reg we should just flat this preflop. Our 3bets gain EV by Fold Equity which we do not have vs this guy.

Here is equiab equities AQo vs Any suited hand/decent off suit hand.

I have this guy slightly over 50% of all hands


As you can see we are not that big of a favorite:

1) We are also OOP so even though our equity might be 63-64% we are going to under realize that equity.

2) We are 300BB's effective. high card off suit hands play very poorly in high SPR spots like this when we are very often going to have 1 pair type hands.

As played, just X/F. We are against a maniac, we do not have to play our range here, we can just play our hand.
DooDooPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:32 AM   #7
XtraScratch8
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,159
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

These are probably the most frustrating/difficult situations to play imo.
XtraScratch8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:40 AM   #8
momo_uk
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,288
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
I think because of this check/call most of the other times you donít cbet.

Or just throw up the white flag and wait for the next chance.

Check/call and then what? Heís certainly not giving up based on what Iíve seen so far. Calling him down blindly?
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:45 AM   #9
XtraScratch8
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,159
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

No, you’re right. Check/call is almost def the worst option cuz even if you hit Queen, you’re still gonna be guessing two streets.
XtraScratch8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 09:47 AM   #10
XtraScratch8
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,159
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

As I said, I hate these spots. It’s annoying because we’re often ahead here and it feels like getting run over, but I think we need to give up more small pots against this guy for less frequent bigger ones.
XtraScratch8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:07 AM   #11
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,316
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
Vs. a Maniac/Fish/non reg we should just flat this preflop. Our 3bets gain EV by Fold Equity which we do not have vs this guy.

Here is equiab equities AQo vs Any suited hand/decent off suit hand.

I have this guy slightly over 50% of all hands


As you can see we are not that big of a favorite:

1) We are also OOP so even though our equity might be 63-64% we are going to under realize that equity.

2) We are 300BB's effective. high card off suit hands play very poorly in high SPR spots like this when we are very often going to have 1 pair type hands.

As played, just X/F. We are against a maniac, we do not have to play our range here, we can just play our hand.
It might be close, but you will lose more vs a maniac by flatting anything in the sb. Besides in mw spots, sb flats are the biggest torch in poker. Worse than open limping.

I do like your overall thoughts though wrt equity realization vs wide no fold ranges. Interesting adaptation, I think I agree (other than when I am in the sb).
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:15 AM   #12
kashabrown
centurion
 
kashabrown's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 127
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
As I said, I hate these spots. Itís annoying because weíre often ahead here and it feels like getting run over, but I think we need to give up more small pots against this guy for less frequent bigger ones.
This.

I have this situation frequently in the 2/5 games I play in. Flatting with AQ and not c betting insures that I win the big pots and give in on the small ones.

Sent from my SM-N960U using 2+2 Forums
kashabrown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:20 AM   #13
momo_uk
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,288
2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

I was just watching a CLP video of David Tuchman uploaded last week where a reg is in this exact spot in the SB with AQo vs a maniacís LP open, and he flats from the SB, which David Tuchman thinks is a mistake.

He proposes to 3b big in that spot for fat value against a range we crush. Not sure what his postflop plan is though.

Those big hands weíre waiting for (to reduce the variance) may never come. Or he may already bust out by the time we get them.

Last edited by momo_uk; 02-15-2019 at 10:26 AM.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:24 AM   #14
DooDooPoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 4,379
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
It might be close, but you will lose more vs a maniac by flatting anything in the sb. Besides in mw spots, sb flats are the biggest torch in poker. Worse than open limping.

I do like your overall thoughts though wrt equity realization vs wide no fold ranges. Interesting adaptation, I think I agree (other than when I am in the sb).
SB flats can be okay. The reason the popular 3bet/fold strategy has been adopted from the SB is because:

1) It doesnít leave us with a capped range preflop OOP

2) It takes back initiative

3) Our 3bets (theoretically) have Fold Equity

4) We counter squeezes from the BB

Ironically, reasons #2 and #4 are null and void. Our maniac actually protects us from light squeezes from the BB. So the same reason we shouldnít 3bet is the same reason flatting is better in this situation.

Almost all players have a losing winrate in the blinds, our goal isnít to win, itís to lose less than if we just folded.
DooDooPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:26 AM   #15
DooDooPoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 4,379
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
I was just watching a CLP video of David Tuchman uploaded last week where a reg is in this exact spot in the SB with AQo vs a maniac’s LP open, and he flats from the SB, which David Tuchman thinks is a mistake.

He proposes to 3b big in that spot for fat value against a range we crush. Not sure what his postflop plan is though.
I wouldn’t take much advice from CLP or Tuchman. They do think about poker at a high level.

Obviously we have a range advantage when we 3bet and get called but that is not the main consideration.
DooDooPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:29 AM   #16
momo_uk
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,288
2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

So basically youíre playing fit or fold vs him and letting him steal 80%+ pots from you in this fashion until you hit something? Feels slightly weak mainly because you may go forever without getting a hand better than AQo or flopping sets.

Would we not 3! AK in this spot either? Itís not much different.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:37 AM   #17
DooDooPoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 4,379
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
So basically youíre playing fit or fold vs him and letting him steal 80%+ pots from you in this fashion until you hit something? Feels slightly weak mainly because you may go forever without getting a real hand.

Would we not 3! AK in this spot either?
Not true. When we call preflop with AQ/AK we can call a lot of cbets vs him.

If this guy is a real maniac and we have zero fold equity, then yes we have to make a hand vs him by default.

Also I am going off your description of the player. We donít play ranges vs maniacs/fish. We just play our hand because they do not know any better.

Against better players we play a range because we have fold equity. And balance actually matters.
DooDooPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:51 AM   #18
aisrael01
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 406
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
Vs. a Maniac/Fish/non reg we should just flat this preflop. Our 3bets gain EV by Fold Equity which we do not have vs this guy.

Here is equiab equities AQo vs Any suited hand/decent off suit hand.

I have this guy slightly over 50% of all hands


As you can see we are not that big of a favorite:

1) We are also OOP so even though our equity might be 63-64% we are going to under realize that equity.

2) We are 300BB's effective. high card off suit hands play very poorly in high SPR spots like this when we are very often going to have 1 pair type hands.

As played, just X/F. We are against a maniac, we do not have to play our range here, we can just play our hand.
Two questions:

1. How can you begin to estimate the equity gap needed to surmount the disadvantage due to being OOP in postflop play? This is obviously a function of our and our opponent's skill levels. I had always assumed that a 10% point gap would be enough, assuming equal skill level. That's why I will sometimes 3B KJs from the SB against a loose BTN open (KJs is 57% against the range you posted). Maybe this is a mistake?

2. It is really hard to find hands which have more than 65% equity against the Villain range you posted. Basically just 88+ and AQs+. AKo has ~64.5% equity. If what you're saying is correct, you suggest it may be correct to only 3B a range of 3% of hands {TT+,AKs,AQs} against a 60% opening range. This seems excessively tight. Or am I oversimplifying your argument?

Last edited by aisrael01; 02-15-2019 at 11:02 AM.
aisrael01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 10:56 AM   #19
samo
veteran
 
samo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,328
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

As played, Cbet/fold 1/3 PSB. Could be bluffing, but the crazed maniacs I've played with usually have it.

Given this particular opponent, widen your range/play more hands when ip. Agree on 3b here, only smaller sizing given his low fold equity %.
samo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:06 AM   #20
DooDooPoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 4,379
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01 View Post
Two questions:

1. How can you begin to estimate the equity gap needed to surmount the disadvantage due to being OOP in postflop play? This is obviously a function of our and our opponent's skill levels. I had always assumed that a 10% point gap would be enough, assuming equal skill level. That's why I will sometimes 3B KJs against a loose BTN open (KJs is 57% against the range you posted). Maybe this is a mistake?

2. It is really hard to find hands which have more than 65% equity against the Villain range you posted. Basically just 88+ and AQs+. AKo has ~64.5% equity. If what you're saying is correct, you suggest it may be correct to only 3B a range of 3% of hands {TT+,AKs,AQs} against a 60% opening range. This seems excessively tight. Or am I oversimplifying your argument?
My strategy is vs this player specifically. Everything you have said is true vs an unknown and especially a reg.

1) Your “skill” against opponents when you have limited fold equity is not going to come from bluffs. It is going to come from your preflop hand selection and your ability to value bet thinly.

2) KJs would be a better 3bet than AQo here even though it has less equity against his range. Why is this? Because suited hands have more visibility postflop and over realize equity while off suit hands under realize.

We have an 11% chance of flopping a Flush Draw with KJs and by that metric alone we would be able to play it profitably postflop.

My strategy vs this opponent would be to flat in the SB with all of our strong off suit hands/low suited connectors/pairs under T and to 3bet all of our premiums + broadway suited connectors. Since we have almost no fold equity we need to 3bet hands that flop well + can flop top pair more often.

This is why 3betting a hand like 87s would most likely be a mistake vs this opponent. We will flop 2nd and 3rd pair too often in a big pot and be unable to continue vs aggression.
DooDooPoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:08 AM   #21
aisrael01
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 406
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

I normally will X/F in this spot. It isn't even necessarily unbalanced. If we're 3B'ing a range of suited broadways and large PPs, we should have plenty of value hands to continue with in this spot: AK, KQs, AA, KK make up a hefty part of our range. If you want to include some semibluffs, use your 3 combos of AQs with a backdoor flush draw.
aisrael01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:28 AM   #22
RoyalRumble
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 356
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01 View Post
I normally will X/F in this spot. It isn't even necessarily unbalanced. If we're 3B'ing a range of suited broadways and large PPs, we should have plenty of value hands to continue with in this spot: AK, KQs, AA, KK make up a hefty part of our range. If you want to include some semibluffs, use your 3 combos of AQs with a backdoor flush draw.
Agreed.

If we 3bet tight like AQ+ and 99 + then we have literally the worst hand we can possibly have.

If we 3bet wider we have KQ, KJ as well as AJ, AT.

We can also continue postflop with AQ on a lot of boards. Boards like 229 we still crush his range and continue for value and we generally have 2 overs as opposed to 1, possibly with a gutshot at times.

If he has 100% open, 100% call 3bet and 100% bet flop when checked to then that money isnt going to be around for long and not forcing the BB out and giving ourselves a chance to win it all with a hand as strong as AQ seems crazy.
RoyalRumble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:29 AM   #23
aisrael01
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 406
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
2) KJs would be a better 3bet than AQo here even though it has less equity against his range. Why is this? Because suited hands have more visibility postflop and over realize equity while off suit hands under realize.

We have an 11% chance of flopping a Flush Draw with KJs and by that metric alone we would be able to play it profitably postflop.
This part doesn't make sense to me. The value of suited hands against a regular opponent is that they make great candidates for semibluffing. But successful semibluffs require fold equity to be profitable.

If we have no fold equity (i.e., we are forced to win at showdown) then we should just look at raw equity to value hands. KJs has less raw equity than AQo, therefore is a less profitable 3bet.

AQ will flop a pair 33% of the time, whereas KJs will flop a pair or flush draw 44% of the time. So we will be able to continue with KJs on more boards. However, KJs is dominated by more hands than AQo when it flops a pair, when KJs pairs its Jack there will often be an overcard on the board, and AQo dominates more of our opponents range than KJs does (since V has a lot of weak Ax hands), so that balances it out somewhat.

Personally I think both KJs and AQo are slam dunk 3bets against this type of player.
aisrael01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:40 AM   #24
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 8,770
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

I like the 3bet vs. this player and I follow through on this flop about half pot. This is a good flop for us. We really do take it down quite a bit, and if he calls, we can evaluate turn. If he raises, we have to fold and c'est la vie.

If we flat him pre with good/premium hands and only play when we hit, we could be in loads of trouble.
Javanewt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2019, 11:55 AM   #25
aisrael01
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 406
Re: 2/5 1500 eff: AQo vs maniac on whiffed flop OOP

If Villain is only calling the flop with any pair or gutshot, then a half pot cbet turns an immediate profit.

On the other hand, if Villain is sometimes floating with backdoor flush draws and often floating with his Ace highs, then a half pot cbet is a disaster (unless we plan to double barrel).
aisrael01 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online