I'm mostly settled with my thoughts and opinions on this hand, but I thought it was an interesting spot so figured I'd post it here.

Hero and villain are both deep (~3k). Game is 2/5/10 (forced straddle). Villain is a decent reg/pro. He likes to click the 3bet button pre, but I've never seen him go too crazy post.

Action...
Pre: Couple limpers, then villain raises to $60 in HJ. Folds around to hero who calls with AQo from BB. Everyone else folds. Villain's raise sizing is usually $50 after a limper, so I didn't think there was anything too crazy about his sizing - he could have lots of Broadway's, medium to big PPs, biggish suited cards, etc.

Flop ($150): J93r. Hero checks, villain checks.

Turn ($150): Tx. Hero checks, villain bets $80. Hero calls. Thought was mostly we're deep, if I spike a K I can win lotsa moneys.

River ($310) 8x. Hero checks.. I didn't really think too much about it. It's pretty hard for me to have any bluffs here if I bet, but more importantly it's really hard for me to have the nuts... Villain bets $600. Hero?

Call

Fold

Did the T complete the rainbow?

I'd fold. We're hoping he has AQ exactly and I'd lean to the 2x to being KQ heavily even though it should have cbet flop.

I also wouldn't cold call AQo from the bb facing a 6x open and several ep limpers

I'd jump head first. Given V's info it dosn't make any sense to me with the Q much less with a bluff.

Yeah, T completed the rainbow. I feel like AQo is way too strong to fold, and while it can play ok as a 3bet OOP, I do expect to get flatted a lot, and I just really don't love playing unsuited big cards OOP in big pots/deep. I'm not convinced there's a ton of value in 3betting this hand OOP though I see it a lot. Like I'd rather 3bet 9Ts or even 88.

Yea not flatting 60 w AQo either, esp if I notice the sizing difference. If he's only a decent reg that tends to mean a lot. Also prob betting turn and river.

AP ckf

I meant there wasn't a sizing difference... Like it was basically 40 + 1BB/limper... And a couple people started raising bigger at this table, so standard sizes started to increase. Anyway, I feel AQ is easily ahead of his range.

That doesn't mean calling>folding - AQs plays better as a call/3b. Also lumping it in w T9s 88 is a useless exercise-they're very different in how they make money.

I see, but the truth is even those little $5-$10 seemingly nothing increases can give away hand strength, ime.

IMO you look like you have a weak bluffcatcher in his eyes. You didnt 3bet pre and just x/c 3 streets. You even did this to give him a chance to bluff the river and he's done exactly what you wanted, you just dont like the sizing because you're worried he knows he's coolered you. But honestly he shouldnt think you have that many straights. His 2x size looks more like a complete miss that he wants to fold out some random pair. Why didnt he cbet flop? Your preflop flatting range I imagine is probably like 22-77 and a bunch of random suited aces + connectors/gappers. He can easily double barrel vs this range if he has KQ on this flop, yet he does this weird nonsense.

I call and expect him to say "nice call" and refuse to show his hand.

Another point to mention about this hand is I chk-raise flops a lot. More than anybody I play with. Like where someone else might go for a light 3bet or fold, I'll opt to just call a lot pre, and then chk-raise if I have any semblance of equity (ok I'm not quite that crazy but I do check raise a lot). So some villains do tend to sometimes start playing more pot-controllish with me.... if that matters at all for his flop check-back range.

^ well yeah I think it's relevant now, if you think he's observant enough to be annoyed with how often you x/r that he just delays his cbets. If you're a raising machine and shift into call mode that heavily weights your call downs towards showdown value. So now the question becomes how big of a laydown can you make in his eyes when the straight gets there? How many of those hands wouldnt raise the turn?

Lets say he has the nuts on the turn so he goes for classic value because it's just impossible for to have a made hand yet. The river completes a ton of hands you could have, and it's not like he has to bluff 2x pot to get you to lay down 66.

Not folding here you block a queen the only hand that beats you is KQ and V should definitely c bet on that flop with that hand most of the time, with that being said V bet is extremely polarized he only has nutted hand or air

Expect to chop or win more times than you lose here

probably 3bet pre

would expect kq to often cbet flop, although maybe not at 100% frequency.

this is why we check river at some frequency, blocking river also seems good - if we look at our range this is an obvious call, whether anyone will 2x ob in a live game as a bluff is another question. bluff might be an ako combo? idk goodluck

Another thing to ask/think about... If we're always folding in this spot, i think it's clear we're overfolding. To prevent this, I'd like to at least have at least some naked Qx combos in my range that I call. What Qx combos are best for me?

River sizing looks like KQ assuming only obviously a Q pays for it so 1/2 PSB and 2x PSB get paid by same hands. No reason to make a 2x PSB bluff. With no sizing elasticity on river I expect AQ is a loser and fold is the right move, but I'm way too stupid to lay this down in real time.

Although AQ trying to fold out AQ might make the most sense.

3bet pre

the Queen is within your range and his check OTF is fine after you flat pre from the blinds. It shouldn't discount KQ.

If this isn't KQ I will be very surprised.

Why? (Serious question)

For what it's worth, one of the reasons I did not 3bet pre is because earlier in the evening there was a hand where I 3bet AKo to $220 after this same villain opened CO to $50, BTN called, and SB called. Villain 4bet to $660. With starting stacks of $2600, I didn't like calling OOP, didn't like shipping, and stacks not big enough to consider 5!/fold. So I just folded...

you have to fold in the hand where he 4bet you. I don't think he was 4bet/folding you light for $660. They do wake up with hands every now and then.

I would 3bet the AQo because he's likely wide enough where he either folds pre or flats with stuff like sc's, pp's or Axs then you take it away when he whiff's the flop. You're basically playing fit or fold if you flat, which usually ends in a fold. Take contrrol/initiative in the hand and force it back on him to really have something.

I don't think he was too "light" when he 4! to $660, but I do think he was a lot wider in this spot than most players. Part of the dynamic here (when I had AKo) was that BTN was short, and started with about $550, so it was obvious that I had to have a hand where I was happy to gii with BTN, and after the 4bet also obvious that villain is happy to gii with BTN too. Because of this dynamic, I think after my 3bet I have a perceived wide/merged range here of maybe like 99+, AJs+, AQo, and so I think villain - recognizing that a 4bet would fold out much of this - can also be somewhat wide in his spot.... Nonetheless, flatting AKo in this spot remained untenable.

That's not really accurate.
There are points on the map where you will only have folds bc of range disadvantage, many of them occur in capped range spots.

Boards like 8888K, 9TJQK, or any spot where you have fewer nutted hands as a percentage of range are going to be problematic facing large bets, especially when oop (where cappedness tends to take place more often)

Here, you do not have to do a lot of work to understand how this is a fold. Because he has all KQ combos he can more easily overbet his chops and revoke your ability to realize your equity in the pot, even with a Q. It makes sense for a player to do so as well from an exploitative perspective given you really do not have that many calls on a 4liner board even at a 1x psb, and he can likely win more of the pot with an overbet as a result.

Villain is throwing rock 100% of the time. How often should I throw scissors to make sure I'm not overthrowing paper?

Nah, I think this guy probably 2x's pot at least a little bit more in this spot with AQ than he does with KQ... He might always have a Q here (not positive), but he doesn't always have KQ... At least against me, that is, because I'm sure he knows I can fold a Q here and that I don't have many other hands here that might call a more reasonable sized bet anyway (so there's probably a bit more value in betting to block a chop than there is in betting to get value from a weaker hand - *maybe* I can show up with 3 combos of 89s, but I don't really see myself getting to this river with any other 2 pair or set combos this way - on the other hand, I still have a bunch of queens, and very rarely the nuts though I guess it's not completely impossible).

In previous sessions, I think we've both seen the other overbet as complete bluffs, though not 2x pot.