What bluffs does villain have here? AK? ATs? AQ specifically blocks those. It's kinda hard to find other bluffs unless he just lost his mind.

This kinda comes back to the turn decision imo. We are not getting direct odds to call, we are oop so implied odds are less important and a lot cards that improve our hand might be tainted. Either lead turn yourself (Hello range advantage) or just check and give up.

No I don't think he's bluffing air... I think most of his "bluffs" are to block a chop (AQ, Q9s are two most likely hands - maybe Q8s if it's in his range pre... He probably would have bet flop with QJ and QT).

Yeah, V has a range advantage on me. I get that. But still, if I'm folding 100% of my range except for the very very rare times I show up with KQ, then I *think* it's clear we're not at an equilibrium... Because then he should 2x pot with his entire range. But if he does that, then I should start calling at least some of the time (he would need to have a ton of KQ to make calling always negative EV if betting his entire range). It's not like he has *that* much KQ in his range (I do recognize that there are spots where we would have to fold 100% of the time, or very close to it - it doesn't feel to me like this is one of them)... So if I want to balance my calls in this spot against him, I need to have at least one or two Qx combos to call him with (and perhaps more).

Call and chop. Compliment him on a creative bet.

Call he rarely has KQ. Might consider raising to fold out Qx

played fine, now fold

lol at making 7 posts in this thread before including this info.

This doesn't make it a call. Let's say you chop 50%, win 10%, lose 40%

EV = (.5)(+155) + (.1)(+ 910) + (.4)(-600) = -71.50

If we assume frequencies of chop 60%, win 10%, lose 30%, EV is +4, so it doesn't take much tinkering to make it a profitable call, but the high probability of chopping changes the EV calculation compared to a situation where you are highly likely (or guaranteed) to win or lose the entire pot.

Outright winning this pot by calling seems very unlikely... If villain wants to fold out all of my non Qx range, he can probably just bet pot here - it's hard to imagine him 2x potting this with complete air.

If villain has at least Qx here, then to call we need him to show up with Qx (no K) hands 4 times as often as KQ... Because we only win ~$150 when we chop, but lose $600 when V has he nuts.

Yeah I just included 10% win since multiple people mentioned it and I usually like to assume a spaz rate of at least 3%. Disagree that you fold your bluffcatchers (78, 2 pair, sets?) to a psb though.

If you assume it's always a chop or fold, the breakeven point is.

EV = 0 = (x)(+155) + (1-x)(-600) where x is the probability of chopping. solving for x gets 79.4%

Its gotta be a joke that river is even a marginal decision right? I dont think its super likely he has a Q here, id say its a pretty obvious KQ or air situation, but there is a ton of air, so seems like a snap call. Smart bluff by V, I would never ever ever put you on a Q here, like lol who checks back the Q on river? (but maybe kinda smart, so not saying its a bad move)

FWIW as an aggro reg who likes to click the 3 bet button, I would be making a big river bet with 100% of my air as V. I could see playing a hand like T9 with this exact line.

Also wouldnt this be wrong forum for 2/5/10? (straddled pot would still be low stakes, but mandatory straddle would mean its basically a 5/10 game)

What did V show up with?

+1 - its time

Was thinking about this last night and started to lean to fold because maths too. It sucks that its going to be a chop sometimes and we have to hand it over, but KQ probs shows up enough to make it - ev. Guess that comes down to reads. I guess every single fish in existence is calling off with a Q, and Im not qualifying myself as a fish, but I dont know if - in the thick of it, Id be good enough to fold myself. Assume V knows. Obv close, but Im starting to.lean to fold now.

Not sure why KQ checks the flop as a "decent reg pro" that 3b in position

What should he be checking there though, that hes also bombing river with?

This hand wasn't 3bet pre... KQ seems like a reasonable hand to sometimes check back as PFR on this flop. I mean, he does know that I'm not one to give up on hands easily so he shouldn't just be cbetting 100%.

I thought it was 3! Too. Disregard last comment

Yes not a 3b. Still applies as pre flop raiser in position. Don't think KQ is a good check back hand as we should have alot of pairs and Ax in our sb range. We should/can assume hell bet all the KQs combos that have a bdfd. Not saying he 100% bets all KQ combos but he will more than not.

I'm not sure why he would go for massive value here when you checked 3 times and especially checked river. I think his huge overbet is really bad(as value with nuts and 2nd nuts) unless you guys have some ridiculous meta/history,. It's way too optimistic for him which makes me lean towards it being a big bluff trying to fold out 9x and worse. Think he has AK alot for the blocker effect, sets, 2 pair.

I agree with all of what cika says except for river having bluffs. For a long time in live poker i said "lol he can never have xx bc of flop action, turn action, pre action, etc etc." Guess what. They always have it.

KQ checking flop is bad, and his river sizing is also really bad regardless of his holding

I don't quite understand why everybody keeps giving villain a lot of non-straight bluffs...

First, I don't think my river check with AQ was all that odd/tricky. It seems somewhat standard... I mean, what am I getting value from if I lead this river? Plus leading Qx here on river gives villain even more incentive to raise bomb all of his Qx hands to block a chop (unless I go for the 2x river bomb myself, which accomplishes little for me). Anyway, both villain and I should have a fair amount of Qx in our ranges going to river - so it just seems like complete suicide to 2x the pot with AK or two pair or whatever. If he has AK and wants me to fold hands like KT, AT, and I guess the rare times I get to the river this way with like 89s, 88, 78s - then there's just no reason to 2x the pot. A PSB, or even like a 2/3 PSB, should in general get me to fold most of my non-Qx hands here. And no villain should possibly think that I'm folding Qx hands all that often to 2x pot (even if I am).

Also, I for one often do check-back two-overs + gutshot on the flop as PFR. I think it works out pretty well as I can call a turn bet if it bricks (which often enough ends in x/b/f on river, giving me the pot), I can delay c-bet, and I can often get money into the pot when my equity is realized.... But I also keep a lot of second pair, sometimes top pair weak kicker type hands in my x/b range -- and I have somewhat of a habit of taking lines where I check back flop then raise a bet on the turn (to villains that always lead turn after PFR checks back flop).

Anyway, results of hand were I folded... It was a pretty quick decision as I had kinda expected an overbet here and when I checked I knew I would x/f if it were really big. In many many hours of live play, I have seen spots like this overbet (usually raise shoves) a bunch of times, but they always have at least the one straightening card if not the nuts... If we assume that villain is doing this only with Qx and KQ then he needs to have 4 Qx hands for every 1 KQ hand just for us to break even. Of course, if there's even a tiny bit of air here, that changes things a bunch - but again, I just almost never see air... It's pretty hard to find 4 Qx hands for every 1 KQ hand, but considering villain is probably more likely to size down at least a tiny bit with KQ to try to get more calls, it might be close.

If I do want to call with Qx sometimes in this spot, my thought is I really don't want to block AQ as that is the most likely Qx hand (that's not KQ) for villain that takes this line. So if I want to balance out my calls at least a little bit, I think I should be doing that with QTs above AQ, and also maybe I should sometimes be check-calling turn with KQ.

I don't know what villain had.

You have to call because he never puts you on a straight and nothing else can call that bet, herego he's bluffing because every other hand folds to that bet. There are too many crying calls you can make for $200 or less that he needs to target if he has KQ. Plus you like have a blocker

How does V view H?

Since you two have a decent amount of history I think the his opinion of you is the most important thing. For example has he seen you lay down big hands to over bets or have you got curious and called over bets before? Not knowing this I call mostly I expect him to c bet KQ more often and 78 is also in his range. More often than not you guys probably chop

I agree that it’s a chop most of the time. But if V never has worse, and sometimes has the nuts - it has to be a chop almost all the time (at least 80% of the time). That’s the conundrum.