4 handed everyone has agreed to straddle

Hero has a loose image after raising button and 4 bet calling with A9dd vs a bb who was down to 650 and steaming and chopped vs A9cc

V is aggressive and has chipped up without showing down at all so i will say he is probably good. Mid 20s ish with a lotta money so consider him a pro

We both have about 2k

Folds to me on bb with Ad8d raise to 25 v calls from straddle

Flop 88Tr

55

Hero bets 40 v calls

135

Turn T hero checks v bets 100

335

River 8

Hero?

Lead 200.
Sure it looks strong, but there's no getting past that once you ck-c turn. V should know you have a hand (88+, Tx,8x) which would make him less likely to continue bluffing with 22-77/Ax stuff if you ck riv. He might call occassionally with some hands but can still perceive you have some bet-f if he elects to get wild.. Of course, he can also have Tx which likely should raise pretty often.

Agreed but I think we should go smaller to try to induce bluff raises and Tx raises. 150 is my pick. I think it's more profitable to try to induce here than to check and hope he bluffs/values since he's raising his Tx value anyway and raising some of his bluffs as well.

Bet. $150 to $200 looks good. He's never folding FH, but he might check behind w/ a little one. He'll raise w/ a T.

He doesn't have any little ones. 99- plays the board and JJ+ 3! pre.

I really doubt Tx raises if you donk here, so your best chance to put in 2 bets on the river is to check to him. This has the added bonus of giving him a chance to bluff with his flop floats (or, indeed, any of his hands that now play the board).

edit: it seems ambitious to expect him to call with the board, unless you bet tiny.

Oh, yeah, the T. Duh.

$150. I don't think he's raising with anything but a T and he might call with anything to play the board. $200 might be pushing it.

Really? I cannot imagine TX doesn't raise here.

We rep an 8 quite well by donking here, and he might not bet his 8's on the turn. If he's smart, he won't raise with a capped range, but even if he's not, what worse would call a raise?

The board has a FH on it. A lot of stubborn players will call w/ almost anything, but I highly doubt they bluff when checked to unless they have a T (or better, which OP says isn't really possible). You really think he puts us on an 8?

I do agree that a very strong V is unlikely to raise Tx otr facing any bet, but I also firmly believe that same (rare) level of 2-5 player is far less likely to bluff riv once hero ck-c turn, ck riv in a 2b pot unless he thinks hero is a nitfish.

Perhaps you are right and this "aggressive" V has turn-riv bluff lines in which case hero is far better off checking and facing what should be a larger sizing with air/Tx/8x rep...I just don't see enough of it out here, nor do I have enough info on this particular V to think he's betting anything but a narrow value range here which he likely will size smaller than 200.

Idk, maybe you're right and I'm too ambitious, but I just think that even the "good" regs make more calling mistakes than betting ones in this spot - and also may mistakenly put in a value raise with Tx more often than what you may be used to -- perhaps.

This is how I feel, but I, too, could be wrong.

I ended up betting 300 and villain called but I think check/raise might be better. I thought seriously about checking the river since I think he bets it 100%.

he said he was glad I bet because he would have bet 500 on the river but poker players lie

Bet how much you would bet with JJ here.

If this isn't a spot to overbet I don't know what is.

Just bet the most you think he will call for a chop, or check if you think he is the type to try to bluff you off a chop.

Raise bigger pre to 30-40.

Yep.

Dream spot.

Two words: All in. Let him call it off with his 10 or be a non-believer.

Mmmm hmmm. So so sexy.

Check/shove. He's never checking back a 10 here and he's never calling a bet without a 10 so this is about as easy a decision as they come. Some percent of the time he'll be bluffing but most of the time he'll have to assume you both have a 10 and call to chop it.

Yeah i agree with check. This spot is so rare its hard to analyze in real time

Honestly i think i made a mistake betting. Its a perfect spot for him to overbet/call and i think he checks back 0%