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/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? /5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ?

10-16-2016 , 09:39 AM
V 1 = Usually plays $2/5 and pretty tight preflop. He opens a fair bit of hands especially in LP and doesnt defend much facing agression. He is semi-competant and can read hands semi decently but has the "see monster under the bed" syndrome and always imagine the worst in a hand. Its fair to say this is a bigger stake then usual for him.

V 2 = Wealthy recreational player who usually plays $1/3. First time I see him play $2/5, let alone $2/5/10. Plays extremely WIDE preflop and doesnt defend too much vs 3bets unless he has a decent hand. But he will flat 2bets with any offsuit connecter, gapper, etc..

V 3 = Recreational player who has played 2/5 and 5/10 in the past but usually palys 1/3. Very loose pre and is capable of making moves post.

V 4 = Old school pro. Has been here for a long time and plays 5/10 +. Doesnt like to fold to 3bets much when he is the PFR.

Hero Image: V1,V2, and V3 all respect my game alot. They see me as a TAG capable of making moves, I have 100h+ with all of them and they usually play straightforward vs me. V4 I just started to play against this past week at $2/5+, no real dynamics yet.

OTTH - Straddle

V1 $40 CO, V2 call BTN, V3 call SB, V4 call BB, Hero looks down at A2 and makes it $245 ($2,100 eff). V1 calls, V2 and V3 fold, and V4 calls.
(We are risking $245 to win $160, it has to work %60 of the time to insta profit not even counting postflop equity, I think this is a great spot to squeeze given profiles even if this time I got called in 2 spots. I would rather have A2-A5ss but so be it)

Flop ($815): A24

Vs both of their ranges and given we smack the board pretty hard, what is the most optimal plan going to the river? Is there any merit to checking? What sizing do you choose if you bet?
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 12:07 PM
$230/$450/stuff

Pre is spew
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 12:23 PM
Choosing A2o to 3bet squeeze is a bit too loose even the dynamics is really good. I would use A2s, 67s, 78s type of hands to 3bet light in this spot. I would go bet bet line. You can get it in by river easily. Bet 1/3 pot all the way.


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/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
$230/$450/stuff

Pre is spew
Why is it spew given villains profile ? I expect them to fold over 60% of the time and thats all i need to insta profit on the hand.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 02:02 PM
Because for this to be a good play they have to fold more like 80% of the time. Why would you make a 245$ squeeze in a good lineup for 15$ EV ?

As played, i think best plan is to represent exactly AK as long as you don´t see a 3 or a 5. Then you can represent a scared AK
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGambler
Because for this to be a good play they have to fold more like 80% of the time. Why would you make a 245$ squeeze in a good lineup for 15$ EV ?

As played, i think best plan is to represent exactly AK as long as you don´t see a 3 or a 5. Then you can represent a scared AK
Where did you get the 80% of the time ? And how did you end up with $15 ev?
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10-16-2016 , 02:56 PM
preflop not suited as u say, but i believe it has its merits.
I would say it is not a so spewy action if we are seen as straightforward and we dont raise often - it should also fold out most Aces off suit that beat us

I do not think we can easily stack off here unless one of them has AK or some of them feels like a move with 45s (very unlikely in their range given description and position)

Especially if V1 has MUB syndrome: he will see u with AK if he does not have
V4 if a good pro and maybe could consider a strong nybr with AK?

i do think mostly if u stack off u are not sure to be good in this config.(vs 44?)

i would bet half pot bet here or 2/3 pot - it should take the pot down
1/3 - half pot bet might have merit of induce bluff (even if ppls tend to play straightforward) eg V4 could call with 33/55 and try a float


we preflop spewy we hit big but Fragile and unlikely to have a hand that we beat that can be stacked off, we are oop, What do you think about ending the hand Now instead of giving cheap cards? just standard bet and take it?
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10-16-2016 , 03:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night
Why is it spew given villains profile ? I expect them to fold over 60% of the time and thats all i need to insta profit on the hand.

Think in long term on your 3betting range here. I would not say it is a spew. It is reasonable but a bit loose.

Your 3bet value hands here could be TT+, AJs+, AQo+ given V light open on CO.

You definitely add A2s-A5s in your 3bet bluff range, and you include A2o here, you are also likely to include A2o-A5o in your 3betting range in this situation.

You then just have too much bluffing combos in your 3bet range to make yourself pretty unbalanced over bluffing oop in this situation.

Since eff is really deep, you would expect people call your 3bet lighter IP against and makes A2o very hard to play.


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/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night
Where did you get the 80% of the time ? And how did you end up with $15 ev?
What is your EV if the fold ~65% ? For this to be worth it, it has to be more. IMHO in the 80% range.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
$230/$450/stuff

Pre is spew
This sizing seems wrong.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-16-2016 , 11:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by surf doc
This sizing seems wrong.
I don't get myself in OOP 3bet wars 200bb deep multiway terribly often but when I do I usually have the nuts and I find the most effective way of getting stacks in is just raptor betting the entire way (1/4 to 1/3 psb)

Assuming starting stacks of $2100 and one flop caller we'll be stuffing $1,175 into $2,175 which feels good, and we got there by nearly doubling our very tiny flop cbet each street.

It's also really neat to cbet 1/4 pot and watch villain roll eyes / yawn fold when you're holding 9 high or whatever silly bluff combos you'd have here.

I guess $220/$440/stuff might be better but I def don't like going bigger. Would certainly like to hear your thoughts.
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10-17-2016 , 05:25 AM
Pre is very bad. As in minus 10-15 big blinds. You greatly overestimate your fold equity. It's probably less than 33% (V1 has a strong range, and donks V2 V3 are very likely to come along) and your postflop equity counts for very little.

It is tempting to check here given that they're both so likely to miss this flop, but I see a few problems here. First, their ranges are very pocket pair heavy, which means that 1) they're likely to try to check down with weak SDV, 2) they draw to the second nuts and tend to only put in big money after they've improved to beat you, and 3) they are bluff catchers that might come along for a small flop bet. Basically, you should try to get them to put you on a bluff and get a little protection for your hand instead of letting them freeroll their 2 outers. V1 will have some Ax as well, but I still prefer betting because I think given the description that he'll tend to check back his AQ AJ for pot control.

I go with a 200-300 bet. Turn sizing will depend on whether it brings backdoor flush draw (betting bigger if so) or an A/5/3/2 (betting smaller).
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10-17-2016 , 08:43 AM
Here is my math/reasoning behind the squeeze. FWIW I know what a balanced squeeze range looks like but I thought this PARTICULAR spot was gold to squeeze in terms of how WIDE V2 flats 2bets and how little V1 defends VS 3bets (USUALLY). He will 4bet KK/AA only and fold the vast majority of his range. I understand that A2o is not an ideal squeeze candidate but I think it yields a higher EV then flatting.

V 1: opening 29.41% or 390 combos
-After 3bet he continues with 75 combos = continuing 20% of the time, folding 80% of the time

V 2: VPIPs 42% or 550 combos
-After 3bet 100 combos = continuing 18%

Once V1 and V2 folds, it is VERY unlikely that V3 or V4 continue OOP, and even if they do, I still have at least 30% equity vs there range and positional advantage.

Obviously this is not a good strategy for a long run and eventually villains will adapt, but sometimes in live poker I believe it is okay to take exploitative lines when the occasion presents itself. thoughts?
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10-17-2016 , 10:41 AM
I think your opening range for V1 is too wide; I'd expect him to continue at least 1/3. And I think you're dead wrong about the continuing frequency of V2 and V3. They're donks, they like to call. They probably each continue around half the time.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-17-2016 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton555
I think your opening range for V1 is too wide; I'd expect him to continue at least 1/3. And I think you're dead wrong about the continuing frequency of V2 and V3. They're donks, they like to call. They probably each continue around half the time.
They are but I take into account my image. They see me as tight/capable player and they are botu playing way above theyre usual stakes. I honestly doubt any would go crazy and i expect them to play tighter then usual. And fwiw, ive seen V2 fold KQss ooop to a big 3bet once. Even though he plays a suuper wide range pre he doesnt cope well to 3bets.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-17-2016 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
I don't get myself in OOP 3bet wars 200bb deep multiway terribly often but when I do I usually have the nuts and I find the most effective way of getting stacks in is just raptor betting the entire way (1/4 to 1/3 psb)

Assuming starting stacks of $2100 and one flop caller we'll be stuffing $1,175 into $2,175 which feels good, and we got there by nearly doubling our very tiny flop cbet each street.

It's also really neat to cbet 1/4 pot and watch villain roll eyes / yawn fold when you're holding 9 high or whatever silly bluff combos you'd have here.

I guess $220/$440/stuff might be better but I def don't like going bigger. Would certainly like to hear your thoughts.
Think about their range for calling 3 bets and compare that with their range for calling 1 or 2. Then consider the number of cards that kill our action or kill our hand.
/5/10 250bb Deep Squeeze spot - How to proceed ? Quote
10-17-2016 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by day'n'night

OTTH - Straddle

V1 $40 CO, V2 call BTN, V3 call SB, V4 call BB, Hero looks down at A2 and makes it $245 ($2,100 eff). V1 calls, V2 and V3 fold, and V4 calls.
(We are risking $245 to win $160, it has to work %60 of the time to insta profit not even counting postflop equity, I think this is a great spot to squeeze given profiles even if this time I got called in 2 spots. I would rather have A2-A5ss but so be it)
pre is just the definition of clicking buttons....you should more or less have your ranges pretty defined as far as what hands you wanna be 3b with pre. looking down at a2o and just deciding to dig this far down into your range to 3b because of random assumptions/reads you have and then justifying it with random % is just, yea clicking buttons. id 3b here a pretty tight range and mostly polarized for a large 5-7x sizing but would probably throw some mergy hands in and cut out some of the worster bluffs. kqs+ and like jj+/maaaybe tt could make it in. then would bluff some small % of my junky suited combos like 26s and 52s

id x flop or bet very small like 25% pot
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