if our overpairs are never calling otr (which is 90% of our range) then it might be a good spot for him to bluff then right? so let him bluff ya banana

It's just so rare that he's going to triple barrel a bluff on this board after we call 2 streets.

Do you really think he's going to fold sets/2p if we shove a heart river?

Do you also think he's going to thin-bet 2p/sets on a 3/8 river when checked to?

I would

I would

+1

So in the second case, if you're Hero and face a shove holding an overpair on a 3/8, you're calling too I assume?

i doubt i'd get here very often with an overpair with this line but no, i'd be folding alot considering most of his bluffs are now valuebets.

You are wrong. It would be a mistake for villain to x back the river when 90-95% of our range is overpairs.

Villain doesn’t need to shove, he just needs to make a value bet. If you don’t think people are capable of value betting a 4 straight or backdoor flush river facing a likely overpair then you need to work on your thinner value bets.

Thinking about this hand more it seems like we are 3! Preflop for a few reasons

1. To not let V steal too easily
2. Because we have decent equity vs his opening range

So that's fine. Folding sometimes/most of the time could be good too vs this guy

Flop, our equity probably went up. But I think pot control is a good way to proceed here because we're oop, and V just isn't very likely to play a monster pot without having us owned. Best way to realize our equity is to just keep the pot small and try to show it down. Obviously this changes on the turn depending on the card. I just really think if a lot of money goes in, you're way behind vs this guy on this board. So why keep bloating the pot? Unless you think you have decent FE which I'm not sure is the case. If anything it's very thin.

I just don't see a reason to bloat the pot here on the flop.

Potential issues w this line of thinking is that V will notice that we 3! Then x flop. So to balance this out I guess sometimes we'd have to also x flop in similar spots with a monster or at least a hand that's likely to be ahead like top pair.

I think x/c flop is the best play by far, as played x/c turn

I get that we're OOP; however, we are 300bb EFF...thinking A5s is EVER possibly a fold vs a BTN open is absolutely absurd.

If it's a leak it's probably a marginal one, and I'd say folding like 25-50% of the time is probably fine

You're oop vs a huge winner

Doesn't mean you just fold every time he steals but if there's ever a time to tighten up it could be here. Also this situation might not come up often enough to even matter. Could just play nitty/tight and lose maybe a small amount of ev but how much will it really cost us? If he attempts to steal like 6 times in a session, and we fold them all, no big deal. Hopefully that makes sense. I'm not advocating to just give away ev, but it's not like we are lighting large amounts of money on fire in this very specific spot (best player in the room opening from the button so we just tighten up and accept a very small ev loss while he's at the table in this spot)

I guess you could kind of see it like splitting 88 I'm blackjack vs an ace. Your ev is - but it's still better than other options so you take the least - ev route and move on. Not that playing bj is a good idea but whatever

Folding or 3! Preflop probably are both fine IMO. You can make strong arguments for both and neither one is likely to be largely - ev

I'm not saying we have to get crazy and defend super wide against this guy in this spot.

However, if we are folding A5s here EVER 300bb eff it is 100% a mistake unless we are really lacking that much confidence in our postflop play (in which case we shouldn't be playing at this table)

I'm not convinced it's that big of a leak, given that our likelihood of stacking off vs doubling up is tilted heavily in V favor when stacks happen to go in

To me that outweighs the small ev loss of folding pre, if that's what you choose to do

3! Is fine too but I don't think fold is as awful as you think

Could there be some merit to leading flop smaller with hands like this and also sets/over pairs or is that too tricky/transparent?

Like bet flop 55 and set it up to hopefully induce a raise when you have a set, and hope he just folds or calls here when you have some good equity

Could be check>bet 55/call flop>bet 1/2 pot/call

You're not stuffing an overpair OTT. Pretty ambitious jam considering Villain is saying he has 2p+

pre we can call or raise so that's fine. If 3betting, $80 minimum, probably bigger is better given stacks. Postflop I think you played it fine.

Check flop

If you don't think villain was acting pre I wouldn't be betting turn and I don't really think jamming makes sense intuitively but I haven't done the math. It will be harder to get paid off OOP if we hit but I think your fold equity is pretty low. Kinda hard to imagine he has too many raise folds in him. What part of his range do you think he is raise/folding out of his almost 4 bet but decide to flat range? You look pretty strong here, I doubt he's raising you with a wide range of bluffs.

That being said, what percent do you think this tell is real given he's a pro? Seems pretty bad.

From your villains perspective there are two points.
1) You should almost always have a big over pair TT-AA
2) This board coverage is better for his range than you range

In short this means you should be folding, however its pretty easy to level yourself.

On another note, I am not convinced villain has many sets and 2pair hands. I would think more bluffs and draws. meaning A high could be good most of the time. Would V play 89h 8Th this way?

tough. would like to know results

We are blocking a bunch of draws smarty

“More bluffs and draws” and then you proceed to list two combos.

From a strictly combinatorics perspective, villain has all 9 set combos and all 6 suited 2pair combos as well as between 6-12 5xs combos including the 6 combos that are already made straights (85s and 53s).

Villains range is crushing ours here considering we have 95% overpairs and a handful of draws.

3b pre good but way too small. Btw against a strong player flatting is not good w this hand deep.

So now you’re betting this flop when you have a fantastic ckc hand agaiant a player that is likely going to pressure you real hard on this board+and a number of turns because your range is f**ked on tons of run outs. Besides all that equity, you can actually retain some legit A high sdv by keeping things wide, let alone all the money you make from a huge portion of his range on straight completing turns.

Turn is a ckc for similar reasons. Rivers are cake.

It's fine

Flop call is debatable.. turn shove +ev

Just because we aren't calling with overpairs doesn't mean the villain won't bet the river. I would think a pro may tend towards thin value more often than the average player and pull the trigger. Theres also the idea of leading small on the river with a blocker bet to both induce spaz, and to allow us to protect some of our worse hands.

Not sure how you can have such concrete reads (never raises a set on this flop, never peels pre w low pocket pairs even tho he’s getting odds to do so, etc) and then say he’s the best player there. Wouldn’t he play sets both fast and slow.. given how deep we are, I completely disagree that he can’t have sets. I think your c/r is completely FOS to a good hand reader. What are you repping here, I’m in agreement that a turn c/c would have been the best play.