V is a winning player, regarded as one of the top winning regs in the room. Little laggy pre but plays a solid tag game. Def capable of thin value bets, bet folds a lots, overall solid TAG

Hero- 30 year old white male, seen by villain as tricky and aggro, capable of showing up with any 2, big bluffs, big calls, big laydowns all in my repitore

V 1500, Hero covers, folds to him in BTN opens 20, hero is BB and makes it 75 with A5hh. Villain counts out raising chips but calls

Flop (167) 467 one heart. Hero leads 85, villain makes it 220, we call.
Turn (607) 2 hero check, villain 345, we jam after ten seconds for his remaining 800ish

Thoughts?

Pre was close between 3b and muck, unprofitable to peel this OOP
Flop, rep OP's 88+, his raise is an attempt to blow me off broadway cards I feel
Turn- looks more like he has an overpair of some sorts as I don't expect him to raise sets on this flop v me, but he clicks it back pre with QQ+ sometimes JJ, seems like he more than likely thinks he's ahead yet he only bets roughly half pot. I pick up massive equity on the turn and feel it's a plus EV shove with him having to put in another 800 with a capped range of middling overpairs w no sets and no high PP

I’m not sure where you rate your skill level at, but attacking the best reg in the room with Axs OOP is going to be a tall order. I’m not gonna sit here and say fold pre, but just beware this is going to be a tough continuum of hands that may (most likely?) wind up being -EV long term.

That said, A5s is a great hand to play back with. I like the 3! and sizing. Flop bet/call is good. Turn is where we make a big mistake. You have played your hand like TT+ to this point. Continue telling that story. I would estimate your turn FE at somewhere between 0-0.1%.

You are 2:1 to hit your 15-outer being offered 2.7:1. Your hand is super disguised and even if one of the draws come in villain is still likely to keep betting putting you on a big overpair.

x/c turn -> bink river -> x/jam river

Johnny I love your posts and have learned a lot from you just lurking, so thanks for the input. I fold this pre sometimes but 3b it often vs a BTN open likely to be a very wide presumably weak range, I expect to take this down preflop a lot, or cbet most boards post and take it down there.

Turn i think your underestimating the size of the shove and if he's not snapping calling with a set or KK or AA he has a decision. A decision that isn't 99% calling. I think he would strongly re-evaluate my range after I 3b pre bet call a flop raise and check jam a turn. That line seems absurdly strong on my end. I think we can safely discount bluffs from his follow up on the turn, but since he can't have better than JJ here really ever, no two pair combos and no sets ( he wouldn't peel pre with low pockets and wouldn't raise the flop w them either), I think we put a lot of pressure on 88-TT. If you were in his shoes would you really want to lose a 300bb stack with a small overpair?. Think he folds here about 40% of the time tbh

I think call turn is the best way to proceed. It's a basic equity Calc and you're getting a good price. Seems a bit fps to put villian to a big decision when he's better than you at these types of decisions.

I responded on mobile prior to reading your last paragraph. A lot of this is going to come down to meta game dynamics and reads that we are not privy to. The way I would attack it is this:

1. What is V's BTN RFI range? Does he have a 4x and 3x sizing or is everything 4x?

2. What is your actual BB 3! vs. BTN steal range? What is your perceived BB 3! vs. BTN steal range in V's eyes?

3. What parts of V's range does he 4!, call and fold?

Make buckets for all 3 options at 100 BB's, 200 BB's, 300 BB's.

4. What is your actual and perceived c-bet range on a low connected flop?

This is important because this board hits villains raise/call defend range way harder than it hits your 3!/c-bet range. If your range is TT+ heavy then I don't know how/why you could discount sets and 2pair from his range. Defending with low pockets is perfectly reasonable.

Further, you are the one that is not going to have any sets on this board. Sure, you are "uncapped" and have AA/KK while villain doesn't, but he also has all of these sets and 76s/75s/65s/64s/54s. In theory he can also flat KK+ here and take you to value town if he thinks your fold-to-4b % is too high.

5. What is villains flop raising range?

You basically discounted it to strictly JJ-88 which is fine if that's your read, but I strongly disagree with it. Not to mention, raising those hands is generally a very poor strategy, especially IP. I would not expect one of the top winning regs in the room to play those hands this way, especially at that sizing. If he thinks you have mostly overcards then this is a WA/WB situation. You've got something like 6-12% equity to the turn vs. his made hands. There's no need for him to nearly 3x your flop bet to deny a portion of your range that has 6-12% equity while nuking his EV vs. your better made hands.

6. What is your bet/call range?

Once again, ranges get narrowed even more. Once you bet/call the flop you have no random broadway overs in your range anymore. Your range is TT+ and literally 8 speculative combos of A5s + 98s.

Therefore, villain is going to be on high alert that you actually have a hand. There is no way in hell he is going to bet 88-TT OTT, especially at that sizing. The best player in the room is certainly not going to raise the flop with 88 (mistake #1) and follow it up with another bet OTT (mistake #2) when you are telling him he's beat. In the odd chance he decided to turn those hands into a bluff he would be betting larger on the turn (like 450+/600) leveraging his stack for the river shove of 700/1500 or something in that ballpark.

Something's gotta give. Either your read on villain being a top player is off, or your range for him is way off. But he cannot be both given your description and reads on his range.

The way I am reading this hand up until you decide to x/r the turn is that villain has 2pair+ and is reading you for a big overpair. One of the biggest ways we make money in poker is when we have a hand that is completely unexpected from what villain perceives us to have and he in turn opens up his stack with a strong but not nutted range thinking he is beating our 'X' range when in actuality we have 'Y' which is far more nutted. I would be ecstatic that villain tried to suck in my overpair to pot commitment territory only to drop the hammer on him when he jams river himself after giving us great odds to hit.

Bet smaller on flop or x/c. I lean towards x/c

As played I hate the turn x/r. Turn is a clear x/c as played imo. What are we repping except some strong draws when we x/shove turn? What hands are we getting him to fold? I mean realistically we should have some sets as 44, 66, and 77 want to raise pre at some frequency I believe, but I doubt villain ever perceives us to have those (I wouldn't) as 99% of people are just gonna call those pre 100% of the time.

Betting or checking flop seems good
Always calling turn

I'm not sure who told you this but if we'd like to have a bb defending range this hand should certainly be in it - as a 3bet and a call. Unless we're worried about his 4x sizing not being a standard in this spot.

When V raises this flop he is not repping 88+. If this player is as good as you say he is then he knows this. He's repping sets/straights/two pair for value and then some bluffs - 9t/79/98

His range is uncapped, you are the one with a capped range.

I know who you're playing against and honestly I dont understand why you want to attack him unless you think you have a serious edge on him. Regardless I think in this spot he needs to understand you have a balanced 3bet range, and then you just have to play that range the way you would if you spiked gin on a board like this. You should at worst be repping a big draw with like 89s, AKhh for the backdoor NFD, a set, and sometimes a stubborn QQ+. So if you had any of those hands how would you play vs a reg?

I think x/r this flop should be a big part of your play, perhaps even an overbet with the draws, or just flat out 3 barrel and once again size it like 1.2x pot on the turn or something. You basically want to advertise that you know what he has and that you dont give a ***, are prepared to stack off, and are setting up a river shove. If he feels this is gonna go the distance he'll be forced to play straight up.

near 0 FE on this flop, bet 55-60 or x/c flop.

18 outs is sexy, but is he gonna buy the story you're selling? what's your perceived range here?

Turn xr is optimistic given effective stacks

Leading turn with an overbet, even all-in can be a good play

Not sure if serious but $1.5k effective, you think this V will raise/fold 44-77 pre in position to a small 3b but call 88-TT? When virtually there’s no difference between any of them?

Not sure how you came at the 6-12% equity figure? If V has 88-JJ and Hero has overs, Hero has ~27% equity, for example in a JJ vs AK scenario.

So I don’t see why we can totally rule out V raising for information/denying equity OTF.

We are OOP OTR. Checking when we hit the flush or straight, especially the straight, in the hope he jams the river seems bad to me because if he puts us on an overpair, it makes no sense for him to jam a 4-to-a-straight board. Also, he’s probably giving up with all his bluffs OTR anyway. If he has a set/2p, he’s going to call a shove a lot anyway.

So I don’t know why people want to check river if we hit.

Not sure how you came up with 18 outs.

The board is like 4s6c7h2h.

Considering the worst scenario that V has a set (6d6s for example), our outs are:

-all four 3s
-all four 8s
-9 hearts minus 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h

So totally 13 outs.

We're trying to get an overpair to fold. In that scenario, the 4h, 6h, and the 3 aces are also outs. If Villain has a set, he's not folding and yes, we then have 13 outs.

Generally, you want to stay out of the way of the best player in a room the size of Foxwoods. Foxwoods normally has multiple 2/5 tables. You should move to another table.

Beyond that leak, playing hands against the best player in the room OOP is a bad idea. You give up 2 of the four elements of playing a hand successfully. If you are going to play, raising is the right idea, but it is discounting the fact that the main value of 3 betting A5s is the fold equity. If you have a reputation of showing up with ATC and making big bluffs, he is going to call more often that normal.

Once we get past the facts that you decided to challenge the best player in the room oop with a mediocre hand with a loose reputation, all you have on the flop is a 1 card straight draw. I doubt he is sweating the 6 outs at most that he is giving up to the broadway portion of your range. Eholing has a decent range for him. Once you call him on the flop, he's not going to keep bluffing at you with air on the turn.

The turn is the time to call. The more outs you have, the less you want to bluff. Especially in this case where most of the outs aren't going to be believed.

Reread the paragraph again and think about how I came up with those numbers.

Because raising for information is unequivocally a terrible reason to raise.

Fair enough then. The chance that V bets a medium overpair OTT is so slim, that the assumption that we have 18 outs is pretty marginal.

Cannot figure it out. Care to explain?

Raising to deny equity seems okay though.

Equity to the turn is not the same as hot/cold equity.

If villain has 99 and Hero has AK, Hero has 12.5% equity to the turn.

If villain has 99 and Hero has A5s (like in this hand) on boards where he doesn’t have an OESD, Hero has 6% equity to the turn

Raising to deny equity to hands that are massive dogs at the expense of his value hands that crush 99 is just an all around terrible play when Hero is going to play straight forward on the turn given his unpaired broadways have poor equity on such a dry and static board.

Maybe this is too simple but if this is the best player in the room as you say, is he really going to give you credit for a set or a str8 on that board given your 3! range preflop? That doesn't seem likely to me so as a good hand reader, he is going to put most of your range as a draw with overs and no pairs (as I doubt you would play an overpair this way).

Line just doesn't add up for me and I would have preferred x/c turn as you do have a lot of equity and some of it backdoor with hearts which is disguised.

So basically you’re saying - V should call one time with 88-JJ and then fold turn if Hero bets, and bet himself if Hero checks because “Hero will play straightforward on the turn”?

Leading river after we hit a 3/8/heart is bad. our range is full of bluffcatchers by this stage and we'd like villian to either continue valuebetting worse or bluffing.

V's range is mainly sets and 2 pair OTT.

He is not betting those OTR because our overpairs are never calling him.