Saturday afternoon 2/4 game, bit of a tough table but i have position on the 3 worst players, two of which feature in this hand.
HJ: unknown MAWG, seems to be opening way too much (hands like JTo and A6s from EP/MP) and playing very fit-or-fold postflop. Either that or he just hasn't connected a lot with boards in the 2+ hours i've seen him play.
BTN: Chinese tourist, fun guy, has been talking about his many trips to Macau casinos. He has an insanely hot girlfriend sitting on the rail (sorry no pics
), so i'm guessing he is pretty wealthy
. He is pretty passive/stationy overall, especially preflop, but i did see him valueown himself with 2nd pair at least twice in spots where he really shouldn't be betting.
Hero/BB: 30ish WG, probably comes across as a reg/grinder. I've been somewhat active but nothing too out of line. I don't think i've shown down any hands up to this point.
OTTH:
Pre:
UTG straddles to 8.
HJ (stack 600) opens to 22
CO (solid player) calls
BTN (stack 650) calls
Hero/BB (stack covers) has
AQ and raises to 114.
Only HJ and BTN call.
Flop (374):
8
4
4
So for me, this is a major inflection point in the hand, do i cbet with 2 overs and a bdnfd, or simply x/f? And if i bet, how much?
In my mind, neither opponent is likely to have a superstrong hand on this flop, both players have a lot of unpaired hands in there range, and if i get called i can put max pressure on the turn on any A/K/Q/
, so....
Hero bets 160.
HJ tanks and begrudgingly folds (Seems like he folded a weak pair, something like 55-77 or maybe even an 8)
Unfortunately,
BTN shoves for 530 total.
So my lack of a well thought out plan got me in this mess.
I have to call another 370, to win 1434, almost exactly 3:1, giving me a pretty good price to call off. To be clear, 2 overs+bdnfd has ~26% equity vs a one pair hand and although he seemed passive, i cant entirely rule out flush draws either. Having said that, he probably has some 4x in his range as well.
So what do you guys think, could i have avoided this? Should I have c-bet smaller, or perhaps shouldn't have bet at all? And as played, call it off or fold?
As always, all comments and feedback are appreciated, so thanks in advance.