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2-4nl: AA turn decision 2-4nl: AA turn decision

02-28-2016 , 02:59 PM
Villian (covers): Solid reg. normally plays a limit higher. Not much of history.

Hero(650): Played for 30min. Tag-ish image

Preflop:
One limper, and Villian opens to 20 from the CO. Hero raised to 60 from BTN with AA limper folds and villian calls.

Flop:
pot is 130 - 6K8
Villian checks
Hero bet 80 , villian calls

Turn
pot is 290 - T
Villain checks
Hero bet 160 and villian shoves. Hero has 350 behind.

Best move as played by Hero???

What do you guys think of a turn check to induce on the river?
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 03:22 PM
Call turn shove. Reload if you lose. That's poker :-/

Prefer betting on turn - we likely have the best hand and want to protect. But understand a check if you're concerned about controlling pot size (not necessarily just to induce)
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 03:32 PM
Your hand is kind of face-up after 3betting pre, betting flop and turn as either AA/AK/KK and V is still shoving. I hate these spots with overpairs and little money remaining behind because V should know you're not folding AA/AK here most of the time.

You'd think V would check/call with all hands that you beat, so what is he shoving here that you actually beat? Some pair+fd combo? It's difficult to say, but it looks like you're beat. But can you really b/f after putting in~50% of your stack here?
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adioviaan
What do you guys think of a turn check to induce on the river?
I get that losing at SD is less painful than facing a turn c/s but that shouldn't be your motivation for checking turn. Turn is a 100% bet because you want value from Kx and you want to charge the draws. Its criminal to lose a street of value against AK or to give a free card to a FD.

Even worse would be to get in a situation where we give a free card to the FD OTT, they brick riv and c/f. Now we lost a street of value while giving two free cards to a draw that oop to us.
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
But can you really b/f after putting in~50% of your stack here?
I never really understood this concept that we're committed after putting in half our stack. I get it pre, but not really post.

Hero's line is standard and very strong. OTF we want value from Kx, draws, 99-QQ and 76/87 type hands. Nothing changes OTT other than 97 and TT got there. We're still trying to get value from the same flop range.

Once we get c/s it's a different story...especially after all the strength we've shown. A turn c/s is incredibly strong as is, never mind after we 3bet pre and doubled for half our stack. V's range now should be exclusively 2P (does he really have KT/T8/86?), sets, 97 and maybe AQ or QJ (does he really c/s when we're screaming AK/KK+?).

We put in 60 BB. Are we really committed to putting in another 70 BB with the very real possibility that we're drawing to two outs or drawing dead?
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 04:55 PM
Grunch.

After V calls the pre RR, I'm ready to play for stacks with SPR 5 as long as I'm generally pushing the action. I'm targeting AK here. KK obviously crushes us. QQ and less probably won't stack off with the K high board. 88 and 66 are possible, though calling a 3b isn't mandatory with them.

There are 6 AK combos, 9 set combos (theoretically possible, he many not play them all), 1 AA combo, if he doesn't RR with that.

I'd bet the turn larger, AK will likely call up to a PSB. I'd make it 100. That'll make pot 320 with 490 behind.

As played, V could have KK, 88, or 66 and be crushing us. He might have AA and be chopping. He could conceivably have KTs or some other odd holdings.

We need to call 350 to win 960. I think there are enough combos of AK that could play this way to make the call. I think we're often behind, but getting better 2.7:1 on a call.

I hate checking the turn here. There are a couple of draws and I am basically willing to play for stacks, especially if I'm betting all the way. Obviously the turn x/r here adds new information to the mix, but I'm still good with the turn bet.
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote
02-28-2016 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
I never really understood this concept that we're committed after putting in half our stack. I get it pre, but not really post.

Hero's line is standard and very strong. OTF we want value from Kx, draws, 99-QQ and 76/87 type hands. Nothing changes OTT other than 97 and TT got there. We're still trying to get value from the same flop range.

Once we get c/s it's a different story...especially after all the strength we've shown. A turn c/s is incredibly strong as is, never mind after we 3bet pre and doubled for half our stack. V's range now should be exclusively 2P (does he really have KT/T8/86?), sets, 97 and maybe AQ or QJ (does he really c/s when we're screaming AK/KK+?).

We put in 60 BB. Are we really committed to putting in another 70 BB with the very real possibility that we're drawing to two outs or drawing dead?
I don't think we can eliminate AK from V's range. It's probably reasonable to reduce the combos -- but it's reasonable to reduce all possible combos for one reason or another.

88 and 66 might not raise or call the 3b. All the 2P combos are candidates for a preflop fold. KK might have shoved pre. AA might have shoved pre.

There are arguments for and against all his possible combos. I think it's a mistake to completely discount any of them. We're getting 2.7:1 on a call against a solid V with a range we really can't confidently pin down. Solid V's are capable of big bluffs. They can detect a bet/fold and attempt to raise H off the hand. They can also x/r the nuts. Overall, I think calling is slightly profitable.

As you point out, sometimes we'll be drawing dead or to two outs. But sometimes he'll be the one drawing thin. Choosing either one of these as the reference point for our decision leads to poor decisions (either mubsiness or overconfidence). Either could be the case. What matters is the likelihood of each and the pot odds.
2-4nl: AA turn decision Quote

      
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