2/4 TPTK turn decision?
11-03-2014
, 01:18 PM
2/4 400cap
Hero (1300): Late 20's Asian male, LAG but others might seen as TAG since only showed down premium hands, just won a big pot few hands ago (limp-raised KK's and got 4 bet shoved and a flat, then 5bet shoved another bigstack and held up).
Villain (450): 40~50 European male, haven't really seen him play a hand since the beginning of the session (1 hr).
Pre: Hero opens A
J
to 25 in MP, SB calls, Villain in BB calls.
Flop (75): J
32
SB check, Villain check, Hero bets out 60
SB folds, Villain calls.
Turn (195): 2
Villain leads out for 100
Hero?
Thoughts on all streets are welcome, will post out river and results later.
Hero (1300): Late 20's Asian male, LAG but others might seen as TAG since only showed down premium hands, just won a big pot few hands ago (limp-raised KK's and got 4 bet shoved and a flat, then 5bet shoved another bigstack and held up).
Villain (450): 40~50 European male, haven't really seen him play a hand since the beginning of the session (1 hr).
Pre: Hero opens A
J to 25 in MP, SB calls, Villain in BB calls.Flop (75): J
32 SB check, Villain check, Hero bets out 60
SB folds, Villain calls.
Turn (195): 2
Villain leads out for 100
Hero?
Thoughts on all streets are welcome, will post out river and results later.
11-03-2014
, 11:20 PM
Quote:
Overall, we are probably getting odds to call the turn and re-evaluate river. However we may be in a tough spot on river if Villain gives us good odds to call again. I would probably fold this turn until we have better reads on V.
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Caveat: I am putting Villain in the "tight passive" category since you say he hasn't played a hand in an hour. Therefore he may not raise some hands that would normally raise preflop or flop here, which affects our ranging on the turn.
The 2 only helps his range if he has exactly A2ss.
This line doesn't make a lot of sense for a flush draw... He would either raise the flop or try to see a free card on the turn. $100 isn't a great blocking bet size either (to take over betting initiative for fold equity and a cheap river).
Sets are raising the flop with the draws out there.
If I'm correct that he's tight passive, I'm putting QQ in his BB flatcalling range, and even a couple combos of KK/AA.
We need 25% equity and have V's range at 33 (discounted), 22 (1 combo / unlikely), KJ, JJ (1 combo), QQ, KK (discounted), AA (discounted), A2ss (1 combo) and flush draws (discounted / not many combos for a tight passive). I would "discount" the hands that would normally raise preflop or the flop if we didn't peg our Villian as passive. It's hard to stove it precisely because of this, but I estimate we have 35-50% equity versus this range.
That said, we really only beat KJ and a few combos of flush draws. We could call turn and re-eval river, but I'm not comfortable playing a big pot with 1 pair versus a nitty villain here.
--
Caveat: I am putting Villain in the "tight passive" category since you say he hasn't played a hand in an hour. Therefore he may not raise some hands that would normally raise preflop or flop here, which affects our ranging on the turn.
The 2 only helps his range if he has exactly A2ss.
This line doesn't make a lot of sense for a flush draw... He would either raise the flop or try to see a free card on the turn. $100 isn't a great blocking bet size either (to take over betting initiative for fold equity and a cheap river).
Sets are raising the flop with the draws out there.
If I'm correct that he's tight passive, I'm putting QQ in his BB flatcalling range, and even a couple combos of KK/AA.
We need 25% equity and have V's range at 33 (discounted), 22 (1 combo / unlikely), KJ, JJ (1 combo), QQ, KK (discounted), AA (discounted), A2ss (1 combo) and flush draws (discounted / not many combos for a tight passive). I would "discount" the hands that would normally raise preflop or the flop if we didn't peg our Villian as passive. It's hard to stove it precisely because of this, but I estimate we have 35-50% equity versus this range.
That said, we really only beat KJ and a few combos of flush draws. We could call turn and re-eval river, but I'm not comfortable playing a big pot with 1 pair versus a nitty villain here.
the board should be J
322 which changes everything.My thoughts were he was repping a very narrowed range, however, he's never played a hand since my session started, so I was quite confused with his image and the weird line he took on the hand.
Just very curious about what might be the more +EV play here.