Hello guys

First post here, hope you can help me with this in my opinion super hard riverspot ...

Hero looks down at TT in LJ and opens to 24.
HJ, BTN and SB call, rest fold so 4 players on the flop, 100 in the pot

Flop comes AsTs5s and it gets checked to me again. Hero bets 60, CO folds, BTN raises to 210, SB folds, hero calls the 210.

Turn comes (AsTs5s) 6h (520pot).
Hero checks, BTN bets 310, Hero calls.

River comes (AsTs5s 6h) 2d (1140pot).
Hero checks, BTN shoves 800 all-in.

Hero ???

Been thinking about my decision for hourssss today... Thanks a lot!

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I asked a similar question two weeks ago. I flopped top set on a monotone board OOP and the answer was jam turn. (Our stack sizes were smaller, and the flop was K high which adds a lot of Ax combos that aren't going to exist here.) I took your line, called river, and lost.

Tough hand. The presence of the As on the flop really changes things, here. In my hand, villains are drawing to the nut flush draw a lot. In your hand, what bluffs could he have? KsJo, KsQo, KsTo? He could also have AKs, AQs, and maybe AJs, but he should almost always be checking the river with those instead of jamming with them.

Value hands you beat: A5s (3 combos), ATs (3 combos), 55 (3 combos), maybe ATo (6 more combos), too. I think he bets those for value and hopes to get called by AK, AQ, AJ. TI definitely think he takes this line with 55.

But with the A high flush, he also has a lot fewer flushes. 67s, 78s, 89s, 79s, J9s, QJs, KJs, KQs. I don't think he ever has aces.

I think you 3-bet the flop.

As played, yikes -- I probably call river. (In before aggressive villains always have the nuts.)

Don't you think you just isolate yourself against flushes by 3betting flop? If I 3bet flop I basically have to shove right?

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I understand your point. But I don't think it's necessarily true. I think you get value from the two-pair hands, 55, and you fold out the broadway spades. There aren't a lot of combos of flushes. Also, in this hypothetical, you have to assume you don't yet know he's going to barrel the turn and river. Wouldn't you raise the flop with AT, A5, 55, AKs, AQs, AJs, KsTo?

Not at all with AxKs or something, don't see why..

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That's fair. You may bet turn with that hand, but he's not raising flop with that hand if he's reasonable. He's ahead of almost every hand you have except a set.

Because you have a good deal of fold equity given your pf open and if you had AxK♠️ you’d be drawing two streets to the nut flush, in the event you’re called, but ideally your flop raise would take it down.

These are some things u should be thinking about in this spot:

Does V 3b with AK pre?

This is a spot where checking flop is really good and see the action on the turn. Sure some Ax hands will call you but other than that you aren't getting 3 streets of value from a marginal hand of same strength in this spot.

Checking flop almost guarantees show down which is what our goal should be.

Despite the strength of or hand (SET) it is not that strong relative to the board, also with so many V's in the hand it makes V less likely to bluff here and rep the flush

Even if he has 55 does he reraise flop and bet turn and river? Unlikely but possible

Raising to 24 is a lot preflop what were stack sizes?

Without good reads try to soul read and decide if you think he is bluffing or not. The problem is you are losing to most of his value range which basically only consists of flushes and hands with Ks in his hand that he decided to make a play with

More often than not he has the flush here, I fold on river, the only other hand that would make sense is AK with Ks that decided to go for it on the river.

Still a clear fold for me

I think checking flop is really a good consideration here. Thanks for that. I folded river and he showed me Ks9c. Still think it's a good fold...

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Checking the flop is bad. Your hand is still very strong compared to the board. And checking lets all XsXx hands draw to a flush for a free.

looks like you are playing 300-400 BB eff.

Stacking off here depends a lot of V - especially set vs monotone board. Just not enough information in a vacuum.

This doesn't make it impossible to answer. I think the non-exploitive play here is to 3B flop and, as played, call river.

Do you always open to 24 at 2/4 when there are no limpers? Waarom zo groot?

At the end of the evening 24 gets more usual yea. Omdat iedereen die sizing gebruikt haha.

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