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Old 10-16-2017, 11:44 AM   #1
Viral25
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2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

I'm trying to make my OP's shorter and the main villain in the hand is an unknown 20 something who has been at my table for less than 20 minutes without any noticeable hands. So straight onto the action....

Folds to Hero (900 stack) in the CO, who has TcTs and makes it 14.
SB calls (800 stack).
BB calls.

Flop (pot is 42):
9h4d5d

Check
Check
Hero bets 32
SB raises to 80.
BB folds.
Hero calls.

Seems standard. Yes 45s and sets, but also a lot of draws.

Turn (202):
9h4d5d 8s

SB bets 140.
Hero calls.

So 67 gets there, but i think still enough draws left to call here.

River (482):
9h4d5d 8s 7c

SB bets 300
Hero calls????

So villain took his time on his flop raise and turn bet, around 15 seconds each time, while the river bet was much faster and more fluent. Also I dont think sets are betting this river often, but 67 and 6dxd obviously are. As mentioned i have no history with him so who knows.

As always any feedback on all streets is appreciated so let me know. Thanks in advance!
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Old 10-16-2017, 12:36 PM   #2
Lauda's hypothesis
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

So with theoretical approach such as you would play online for example, you can't fold flop right away. However live players are worse and they usually don't ch/r bluff enough. At least in Europe where I play. He's a young player tho, so he might be capable of bluffing (Folding to a older, passive typical live player right away on the flop would be eazy). As u probably noticed, its a good thing you don't have a diamond.

It's pretty tough spot but there are few things that may help you approach it:
1. Notice that your hand in this spot is a bluff catcher as he is unlikely to bet a worse hand for value unless he overplays A9
2. Think what are the best bluff catchers in this spot and where TT without diamonds is in this category.
3. You could fold TT with diamond on the turn.
4. If you call the turn, there are obviously better and worse rivers to come, so its good to already have a plan on which cards you gonna call off and on which u going to fold.

In this case one of the worst cards apart from diamons falls, so its a fold imo.
There are few small things which stands for it, for example you don't block ThJh which is a good bluff raising hand for a competent player.
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Old 10-16-2017, 01:06 PM   #3
momo_uk
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Fold the flop after betting 80% pot and still getting raised.
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Old 10-16-2017, 01:07 PM   #4
Playbig2000
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

easy fold otr without any reads.
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Old 10-16-2017, 01:20 PM   #5
M'Tuna
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
Fold the flop after betting 80% pot and still getting raised.
This seems super weak.
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:56 PM   #6
GTsO
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by M'Tuna View Post
This seems super weak.


Borderline for me, so okay either way depending on game flow. AP we're not calling down through the river for every runout from that flop; this is one of them I fold. Unless we started with double the effective stacks or something.
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Old 10-17-2017, 05:29 AM   #7
BackDoorFlush
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

B/f flop.
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Old 10-17-2017, 08:34 AM   #8
Viral25
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
Fold the flop after betting 80% pot and still getting raised.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BackDoorFlush View Post
B/f flop.
Feel free to convince me otherwise, but this seems like a really bad line vs a random 20-something. An OMC maybe, but even if he is only raising half of his draws it still should be a call otf.

The only reason i can think of for folding flop is that we are gonna get a lot of bad runouts where we get bluffed anyway. But we are gonna get exploited soooooo much by any player who has a pinch of aggression in his game.
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Old 10-17-2017, 08:54 AM   #9
Viral25
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

So i have to call 300 to win 1082 otr, which means i have to be good 27% of the time.
If we give him 76s/Ad6d/8d6d/9d8d and all sets, he only needs to have 6 missed flushdraws for me to call profitably. Whether he even bets sets or 9d8d is up for debate imo.

Meanwhile he should have a bunch of FD+overs and combo draws like A2dd/A3dd.

Board: 9h4d5d8s7c
Equity Winst Split
MP2 28.59% 28.59% 0.00% { TsTc }
BU 71.41% 71.41% 0.00% { 99, 55-44, 76s, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, 9d8d, Ad6d, 8d6d, Ad3d, Ad2d }

But maybe i'm just paranoid .
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Old 10-17-2017, 05:51 PM   #10
chop$
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Viral25 View Post
Feel free to convince me otherwise, but this seems like a really bad line vs a random 20-something. An OMC maybe, but even if he is only raising half of his draws it still should be a call otf.

The only reason i can think of for folding flop is that we are gonna get a lot of bad runouts where we get bluffed anyway. But we are gonna get exploited soooooo much by any player who has a pinch of aggression in his game.
Because even if the worst thing you're getting raised with is a FD and two overs you're an equity dog, you have a one pair hand that is unlikely to improve and the board is very dynamic.
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Old 10-17-2017, 06:46 PM   #11
ZockenRobot
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Viral25 View Post
So i have to call 300 to win 1082 otr, which means i have to be good 27% of the time.
I think it's 300 to win 782 right? Because your call is not in the pot yet.
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Old 10-18-2017, 02:52 AM   #12
kekeeke
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

super tough spot with a let's face it, ****ty hand. i wish you didn't put the whole hand because i can't help but feel biased here

honestly if it was for 100bbs id just shove it in OTF but for 200bbs i might just fold, TT is complete trash this deep, this is actually the worst hand you could continue with OTF, it's equity and playability are both terrible, it looks super weak but in reality it's just smart to fold because... your hand is trash, you really need the special kind of villain to call here and you don't have any reads so w/e next hand.
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Old 10-18-2017, 05:49 AM   #13
6bet me
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Against a young reg that's capable of raising the NFD and 2overs+FD on flop, and considering we don't have a diamond in our hand and all overcards missed, I'm pretty happy to call this river.
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:09 AM   #14
flopturntree
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

You have a bluff catcher. He has more value hands then missed draws, flop call is fine, turn call very thin, folding on river
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:11 AM   #15
flopturntree
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Considering shoving with 1010 blockers to absolute nuts but hes betting so much of his stack that it makes it even less likely of a bluff
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:12 AM   #16
flopturntree
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Re: 2/4 nl: TT on a scary board.

Very ambitious call on your part but its a losing play given specific hand
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