Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-31-2016, 01:25 PM   #1
Adioviaan
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 9
2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Villian(500): TAG player who is positional aware. Imo a player who is pretty solid seen him 3-4 times befor.

Hero(350): LAG/TAG. Imo at this point seen as LAG since I played a lot a hands and showed quiet some aggression so far in this session.

Preflop:
Hero on the HJ with A2 opens to 20.
Villian on the BTN calls

Flop:
pot is 46 : board: T92
Hero: bets 24, Villian calls

Turn:
pot is 90 : J
Hero bets 60 and villain raises to 140. Hero??

Please give your opinion and reasoning on the following:
A) Is this a fold on the turn after action villian?
B) Or an oppurtuun moment to go all-in and use fold equity, and for the times villian calls a dog with outs?
Adioviaan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:11 PM   #2
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Pot is 290. 80 to call. That's what around 27% direct on a call. You'll about need to stack him to make up for this call if you bink. (Which can be hard to do with a flush) This big raise here looks kinda like a made hand trying to get the money in so playing for stack on the river is possible. Depends on your BR imo. Small BR and I'm not using IO so heavily but if you're rolled for it I believe it's a call.
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:26 PM   #3
RaiseAnnounced
journeyman
 
RaiseAnnounced's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: The merge is a lie
Posts: 278
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Our sizing is silly. What argument could there possibly be for 1/2p on flop with QQ? There's high value for protection on this board, a larger size sets up stacks better for 3 streets, and we have a low enough cbet frequency to sustain a larger size.

EDIT: Then again, I don't open 5bbs from the HJ, so our ranges once we get to the flop might be very different from each other. Though if you're opening A2s, then probably not.

Once we've sufficiently shaved off the top of his range, we sure as heck can go bombs away on the turn for like full pot to setup a river shove.

As played, I probably just shove. I don't think our FE is very high at all, but I have no idea how to outplay him for his last bit of stack on the river, and there's a lot that could potentially go wrong.

Last edited by RaiseAnnounced; 01-31-2016 at 02:35 PM.
RaiseAnnounced is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:29 PM   #4
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,035
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Easy call. You only need to make an additional $40 off villain to make the call breakeven and with $170 behind it is fairly likely you can get stacks in.

Dwannabe, this is not a "big raise." This is the kind of raise a bad player makes with a made hand and then still stacks off with when the flush hits.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:32 PM   #5
RaiseAnnounced
journeyman
 
RaiseAnnounced's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: The merge is a lie
Posts: 278
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by dwannabe View Post
Pot is 290. 80 to call. That's what around 27% direct on a call. You'll about need to stack him to make up for this call if you bink.
You're mixing ratios and percentages. Either you're calling $80 to win $370 so need 21.6% equity, or you're calling $80 in a pot of $290, so you're getting a price of 3.625:1, and so need 21.6% equity.

You're also assuming our 5 outs to two pair/trips are totally dead, which I guess means you're putting him on like JJ/87s exactly.
RaiseAnnounced is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:38 PM   #6
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Dwannabe, this is not a "big raise." This is the kind of raise a bad player makes with a made hand and then still stacks off with when the flush hits.
Misuse of the word big I agree. But I said exactly what you said in the same sentence. That he most likely has a made hand and may still gii in if the flush comes.

I'm not sure why he has to be a bad player making the raise tho? I don't hate the V's raise tho. It's putting Hero in a tough position strongly considering making a call with a hand Around 20% equity.

And sets up great balance for later to save money on semi-bluffs.
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:48 PM   #7
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiseAnnounced View Post
You're mixing ratios and percentages. Either you're calling $80 to win $370 so need 21.6% equity, or you're calling $80 in a pot of $290, so you're getting a price of 3.625:1, and so need 21.6 equity
You do know ratios and percentages are by nature and definition equal right?
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:48 PM   #8
E Mo
journeyman
 
E Mo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Austin, Texas
Posts: 336
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

I think you're getting too good of a price to call and try to hit your flush to fold.

Absolutely do not shove. You have probably zero fold equity.
E Mo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 02:58 PM   #9
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiseAnnounced View Post
As played, I probably just shove. I don't think our FE is very high at all, but I have no idea how to outplay him for his last bit of stack on the river, and there's a lot that could potentially go wrong.
You think we have very little FE so in all likelyhood, the worst hand. And should shove...
Not sure how that is +EV
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 03:23 PM   #10
RaiseAnnounced
journeyman
 
RaiseAnnounced's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: The merge is a lie
Posts: 278
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by dwannabe View Post
You think we have very little FE so in all likelyhood, the worst hand. And should shove...
Not sure how that is +EV
My intuition was way off on what equity we needed to be +EV on a shove with 0FE.

Also, my fear that we'll misplay a lot of rivers is probably overly MUBSy in a population where villain's range is probably much more predictable, probably almost never includes bare draws that shove blank rivers, probably almost never includes hands that x/f when our hand improves, and so on.

So flatting probably is best as there is very little debate whatsoever as to whether it's +EV.
RaiseAnnounced is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 08:47 PM   #11
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,035
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by dwannabe View Post
Misuse of the word big I agree. But I said exactly what you said in the same sentence. That he most likely has a made hand and may still gii in if the flush comes.

I'm not sure why he has to be a bad player making the raise tho? I don't hate the V's raise tho. It's putting Hero in a tough position strongly considering making a call with a hand Around 20% equity.

And sets up great balance for later to save money on semi-bluffs.
What's tough about the decision? We are getting 3.6:1 pot odds when we are 4:1 to hit our flush with an outside chance trip 2's or an Ace are a winner as well.

The raise is poorly sized and sets up a half pot bet of $170 when we hit which will be very difficult for villain to fold his sets and straights getting 3:1 on his call.

A raise of this size has absolutely no FE in my book and is just a nuisance raise like a mosquito buzzing around your head.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 09:05 PM   #12
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

^ I said its putting the hero to a tough decision. I already said I'd call.

Not sure why getting money in with a better hand is a bad raise. He's betting for value. You're making the assumption he will never fold if the flush comes in. He's making money every time it doesn't.

Maybe he puts hero on a flush draw and is trying to get a call here? Maybe he knows the hero does not have a hand that will pay more OTR unless it hits and has him beat. Which in this case he would be absolutely correct.

I just dislike the assumption that this V is a bad player because he is getting money in with a better hand lol. (If he is doing this as a semi bluff than I agree. Terrible raise. But if it's for value. Good raise.)
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 09:33 AM   #13
RaiseAnnounced
journeyman
 
RaiseAnnounced's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: The merge is a lie
Posts: 278
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by dwannabe View Post
You do know ratios and percentages are by nature and definition equal right?
It would have been more accurate if I'd said you're mixing up ratios and fractions. You were treating ratios like a fraction to derive an incorrect percentage.
RaiseAnnounced is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 01:13 PM   #14
dwannabe
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 150
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiseAnnounced View Post
It would have been more accurate if I'd said you're mixing up ratios and fractions. You were treating ratios like a fraction to derive an incorrect percentage.
I should not have put equity. I did straight odds. I apologize.
dwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 05:51 PM   #15
ZuneIt
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Where I can find out how2play poker
Posts: 2,160
Re: 2/4 NL - PAHWM: A2s in late position turn action

This is a hand where I caught up in a call otf because of the bottom pair. Even though I know it's possible V may have AT/A9.

Also, if the turn brings an off-suit K or 6, I can't find it in myself to fire. So, I am at the mercy of V's turn bet as to whether I get to see the river card or not if the turn is a blank.

I should start checking [against Vs I play against a lot] ott when I hit my str8 with an off-suit card here, looking for a c/r. Then maybe I'd get to see the river more often.
ZuneIt is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive