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2/4 bottom set 2/4 bottom set

09-17-2017 , 02:40 PM
Prehand Descriptions
V1 is 30's WG. Winning player. TAG: Actually tight, but I think a bit less aggressive than ideal (but I might be a bit more aggressive). Capable of bluffing, but I expect multi-street bluffs are rare and I think his bluffing frequency is lower than it should be. I think he could win more by adding some more bluffs; he probably thinks I could win more by bluffing a bit less.

V2: MAAG. Just sat down, no specific reads.

H: MAWG. V and I have played occasionally for a few years. No specific relevant history hands.

$2/4 NL (9 handed)
SB V1 ~1500
BB H covers all
EP V2 ~1000

Hero is dealt 7 7

Folds, EP V2 raises to $20, folds, SB V1 calls, BB H calls

Flop ($56) J T 7
V1 checks, H checks, V2 bets $35
V1 raises to $110, H?

With the x/r, pot is $201; V2 has ~$950, V1 has ~$1350.

I don't remember V1 ever x/r in an interesting situation (such as showing down a pure bluff or overplaying a hand). I'm not sure whether he 3b TT & JJ pre.

I think his range is something like
98s, JJ?, TT??, JT, combo FDs, especially with straight outs.


Fold, flat, or raise? Why? If we're flatting or raising and hand continues, general approach for turn and river?

Reasoning behind recommendations is much appreciated.
2/4 bottom set Quote
09-17-2017 , 02:58 PM
tough spot imo... sounds like you think V1 is nitty for the most part?

what frequency do you think V1 is 3b JJ? and how do you think villain plays AhTh type of hands?
2/4 bottom set Quote
09-17-2017 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315
tough spot imo... sounds like you think V1 is nitty for the most part?

what frequency do you think V1 is 3b JJ? and how do you think villain plays AhTh type of hands?
On the nit/TAG boundary, shading toward TAG.

Good questions on frequency. I don't have specific reads -- he hasn't really been on my radar for close examination.

If I had to guess, I'd say maybe 50/50 to 3b JJ and maybe 25% or less to 3b TT, but those are just stabs.

I think it's probably less than 50/50 that he x/r NFD + pair, but certainly possible. Again, just a stab.
2/4 bottom set Quote
09-17-2017 , 04:20 PM
Any read on what V2 plans to do or how much he likes his hand? If you think there is a good chance he was making a continuation bet and plans to make a trivial fold then it helps your situation.

For the most part though I can find a fold in this situation. If V1's range is as tight as you suggest you are less then 50/50 to win the hand already. If V2 has a real hand you can be in terrible shape. You have to put some bad draws in their ranges or hope that V1 and V2 are blocking each other to continue.

This comes up every so often and it generally works out that bottom set can be folded to mulitway action on a board where somebody could easily have flopped the nuts or a huge draw. You need middle set+ or a nut draw to easily continue against a tight range. If villains are bluffy or laggy and can be betting/raising with weak draws or air then bottom set may be worth going with. Effective stack sizes and pot size matter and favor folding in this case, the pot is not big and remaining stacks are big. If effective stacks are small or the pot very big hero may be priced in even if hero expect to be behind more often then not.

Part of the problem with continuing is that is really unclear what you should do. If you are beat already then folding now is best. If villain is on the weaker end of his drawing range or has a made hand drawing to beat you then you would like to raise now. Against the stronger end of his drawing range it's better to flat now and push on safe turn cards.
2/4 bottom set Quote
09-17-2017 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
Any read on what V2 plans to do or how much he likes his hand? If you think there is a good chance he was making a continuation bet and plans to make a trivial fold then it helps your situation.
No reads on V2, no telegraph. Using population, for his PFR I expect him to have something like ATo+, A8s+, TT+, suited broadways, KQ, some SCs, plus or minus depending on his particulars and how he's feeling that day. That's roughly my "standard" range estimate for an EP raise.

I don't expect him to get tricky here. If I called or raised, he'd continue with a monster or big draw, raising the top end. He'll fold a whiff or weak draw.
2/4 bottom set Quote
09-17-2017 , 06:59 PM
Goodluck 400 blinds deep
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09-18-2017 , 01:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaevictis
I think it's probably less than 50/50 that he x/r NFD + pair, but certainly possible. Again, just a stab.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaevictis
No reads on V2, no telegraph. Using population, for his PFR I expect him to have something like ATo+, A8s+, TT+, suited broadways, KQ, some SCs, plus or minus depending on his particulars and how he's feeling that day.
So you have no reads on V2 and just a stab on V1. I have no idea what you should do.

Quietly fold and pay more attention to how your opponents are playing.
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09-18-2017 , 11:04 AM
Though the spot is for the most part readless, I’d make the following observations. Live, we don’t know what V2 will do, but I’ll assume he is weak given the OP focus on V1.

1) V1 range: AhQh+/AhTh/KhQh/Th9h/JJ/TT/JTs/98s. If he is more TAG than TP (tight passive) I’d expect AhQh+/JJ are more likely to 3-b pre. If so, that leaves 10 combos (JJ/TT/98s) ahead and 5 combos (AhTh/KhQh/Th9h/JTs) behind. Alternatively, if u think all JT combos are live, better for Hero.

2) If V1 checks, does he expect Hero to bet, i.e. what is the V view of Hero? OP, I know u mentioned he believes u could be less aggressive. Does this play into your analysis?

3) On a drawy board that is 3-way, I’d expect a strong hand to donk value and not risk the flop to check through.

As for the action … I’d lean toward flatting the raise, and hope V2 folds. V1 should be on alert and since he leans more passive and is oop, I’d expect him to slow down OTT with hands that don't improve. If he leads on a blank, I’d fold given the opponent, besides the larger stack vs. smaller pot ratio.
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09-18-2017 , 01:48 PM
I see merits to raising and flatting, but I probably flat if V1 is that TAG and won't gii with a draw or you aren't sure. Would be terrible to have to bet/fold this. So many cards we hate on the turn, though.
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09-18-2017 , 02:23 PM
Against this guy id fold to the flop action. We only beat JT suited and all combo draws should be discounted by like 75%. This guy is heavily weighted towards TT and JJ imo. I think it's more likely that a tight guy flats with these than calls from sb with JT.
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09-18-2017 , 02:50 PM
B]
Quote:
Originally Posted by niceguy22
Against this guy id fold to the flop action. We only beat JT suited and all combo draws should be discounted by like 75%. This guy is heavily weighted towards TT and JJ imo. I think it's more likely that a tight guy flats with these than calls from sb with JT.
+1 to the flat jj 10s > flat j10s 89s especially against random and OOP
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09-19-2017 , 11:08 AM
Calling and folding are both fine. I like folding more, but it`s obviously the boring approach.

Calling is ok, because we have position on the deep RR and he will mostly shut down with weaker hands/draws OTT if he gets called by us and V2.

Let`s say we call and go three ways to the turn.

If it`s a brick or better and he checks, I am b/f 1/3 Pot. If Villain keeps betting on a brick I am folding. Having V2 in the hand protects us quite well here.
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