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2/4 bluff line 2/4 bluff line

04-23-2019 , 08:27 AM
Hero: 1,000$: CO : YWG, been playing tight for the first part of the session, but had some good hand and have been involved in the last few pots.
V1: 800$ : SB: MWG, is in for like 1.5k so far seems like a pretty big station have seen him make a lot of river calls just to be beat and is possibly a bit tilted.
V2: 1k+$ : BB : YWG, LAG seems decent but has been involved into quite a lot of pots especially vs V1.

Guy limps from the HJ have seen him limp folding a bunch and have not seem him limp any strong hands.
I look down at A8 in the CO decide to raise it up to 24$ and mostly take it down or play vs either V1 or the limper IP, which is also fine.
To my surprise everyone including the BTN calls.
Flop [110$]: 9 6 5 Checks to me decide to also check, since everyone in the hand is a bit of a station.
Turn [110$]: J SB bets out 30$ BB calls HJ folds and its now on me, I raise to 110$, the small bet from the SB seems weak to me and I would expect the BB to raise his good holdings. So I do think I can take the pot down here a lot. however in this spot the SB and BB both call.
River [440$]: 10 Both check, I decide to bet 200$.

What do you guys think about this hand?

Will post results and possible futher questions later. Thanks!
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04-23-2019 , 08:35 AM
What did they all call a 24 raise with preflop that you could semi bluff them off on this wet turn? Especially since this board favors their ranges...why not just call getting direct odds on your flush draw and with a disguised gutter too?

Do you think this river bet is enough to fold out two pair hands? (Of course KQ got there but presumably unless it’s the one diamond combo it shouldn’t be there.)
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04-23-2019 , 09:01 AM
I would expect V2 to fold his 2pair holdings from the way he had been playing here. V1 however I do think would call with his 2p here. I agree with you that the turn isnt good for my range specially when I checkback the board during the hand I wouldnt expect the villians to take note of this, since they were on the fishy side.
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04-23-2019 , 09:11 AM
I think V1 is too sticky to bluff here. When he calls your raise it looks to me like he has 2P. Maybe he flopped it and was hoping to x/r. You also mentioned he is a little tilted which makes him more likely to stick his money in and see your bluff.

To me it looks like V2 turned some type of combo draw, pair + FD maybe. So I don’t think V2 will call a bet here.
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04-23-2019 , 09:59 AM
I agree with check flop, but not just because of stationy Vs. You have good equity and Vs have a million hands that aren't folding, incl every PP above 44. Sets and straights will blow you out. Someone might even bluff you out, or decide to clean house with a strong 1 pair or pair plus draw.

Turn raise isn't the worst thing in the world I guess, since so much weakness is shown. However, that weakness mostly wants to see a river. They were hoping to for $30 but if it costs a reasonable amount more, so be it.

You have enough equity to happily call and sometimes you'll get to crush a worse flush and, in general, get paid often when you hit.

It REALLy sucks to get blown off the hand now. Not too likely, but stranger things have happened.

Too the degree that it matters, your line makes little sense. What would you raise pre, check flop, and raise here?

Your raise is also pretty small. If I was to raise here, I'd go very big. You are trying to get people to fold hands with a lot of equity. You are trying to rep a monster hand that is afraid of a lot of draws, so if you did have it, you'd be raising big. You're saying, "I know you guys have draws, and I'm going to make it bad to call with them."

And if they DO call, you have plenty of equity yourself so it's not that bad. I'd make it like $230 or even a little more... if I raised. Then you'll also win more when you hit on the river. Or, maybe even really put a lot of pressure on 2p, perhaps if an ace comes since you could have AJ or a somewhat weird AA (though it makes SOME sense). A J could also be bluffed cheaply.

You might even fold out something like 65 now with a huge turn raise if they realize what a hell the river is going to be for them when the pot gets enormous.

AP... I think you've put yourself in a bad river spot. Sets and 2p might not be thrilled, but most will just call. But you've build up a pretty big pot with no showdown value. I guess 200 is a good bet to fold out lots of hands like 97 and you just hope it was that and a worse draw. The weak leader has some extra preasure on him with another guy behind, so he could fold a J.
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04-23-2019 , 10:48 AM
ES2 I fully agree with everything you said, the only question I have is when playing against bad non-thinking players does it matter if your line make sense? (I would personally expect a lot of auto folds in this spots from hands like 66, 77, A9, K9, Q9 and maybe some weak jacks which I do think is a huge part of both villians ranges.
I would expect hands like KJ, QJ, Q10, 810, 96, 65 and all missed flussed draws to fold and pretty much only sets and J9 to call OTR.
AP: V1 min raises to 400, V2 goes in the tank for a long time and shoves for 800+/- in total V1 calls
V1 shows 55 for bottom set, wtf? And V2 shows KQ with no dia...
Guess the turn raise didnt work as planned if KQ is calling here.
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04-23-2019 , 11:39 AM
I find there's kind of a sliding scale on how much it matters if your line makes sense. By now, many recs have played enough to at least intuitively know when you're line is particularly bad. Others remain clueless.

I actually MIGHT take that line with AJ, but I wouldn't be expecting folds. I'd just want to charge draws and showdown.

One reason to blast it if you raise is that even if it smells fishy some will just reckon you must have it when betting like that, and/or be too scared to take a stand. Since your story is a little shaky, they might need extra convincing. And, if you actually did stumble into a monster here, it would be a great place to blast it hoping nobody would believe you.

Plus, the guy called with KQ. So that tells you how powerful your bluff was.

The bottom set tells us why a check is probably best here. Not only do we wind up spewing a bunch of money to 55, if the other guy doesn't river him, other players might make a huge 3bet with their set on the turn, which is terrible.
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