Hero (485): Getting AK a lot in the SB and taking down dead money, but giving up a lot in LP on whiffed flops with unsuited hands.

V (500): Young WG. No history, but overheard him saying that he's "back to grind the soft games" in the area a week ago. Playing TAG I guess.

Hero raises 16 with AK (table seemed tight, but the difference between 4bb and 5bb raises tends to be big); 3 callers including V in MP.

Flop (64): A 2x 3
Hero bets 40; fold; v raises to 130; fold; hero calls

Idk maybe I could fold my entire range to this raise, but AK is the 2nd strongest hand I could possibly have here and it seemed bad to fold against a player who might be tough.

Turn (320): 4
Hero checks. V bets 130 (leaving about 200 for me); Hero???

Card really sucks; stuff like A4/5s and 44/55 get there. Also doesn't seem like a flush draw anymore. Wat do?

I usually make a go/no go decision on the flop when raised. The reason is that you end up with this type of situation where there is just one PSB left going into the turn. The villain almost always bets the turn. So maybe if there is a reasonable draw that get's there on the turn, I could fold. In this case, the turn is a virtual blank (only A5 gets there). Are you really going to fold the river getting 4:1 on a blank?

Now with my image (OWG), I have to call these more frequently than a 22 year old Asian would have to do so. However once I call the raise, I'm calling it down. I expect much of the time he'll have a FD here because he bet so small on the turn.

Given that he thinks he's playing at the kiddie tables, I think you have to call it down too. Don't fold on the turn or river with blanks.

Flop is a tough one. Against an unknown I'm folding. Stacks were plenty big enough for him to set mine even with 22 and 33, and most have his FD's are blocked. A feel or ebb and flow of the game would be very helpful. Is V calling from MP with Js9s? Does he think hero is weak tight?

I'm not that worried about the 4c. V shouldn't be raising flop with hands that turned a straight.

Flop is a fold as ****ty as it is.

I'd fold turn as played as well I guess

Maybe too nitty, but in a vacuum I just fold flop. We're getting bad RIO, and I'm just not sure what he's raising with that we beat. AQ and AJ probably flat, we have the Ks so there aren't that many good flush draws... without a read that he can be semi-bluffing A4 / A5 or something, or that he's going to go bonkers with like 87ss, I think you have to give it up.

You're also OOP OTF with an SPR of like 8. Not looking to play for stacks here against a V that seems super comfortable doing so.

Guys here making exploitative assumptions of this guys either having only value hands and rarely bluffing in this spot or him bluffing all flush draws so you have to call. The truth is that we don't have such info in this hand. We don't know if he is super aggro and likes to play draws aggressively or he is nitty and only have nuts in this spot.

We can make some assumptions based on experience in live poker. Its rather sure he is not a type of passive fish. He might be capable of bluffing. So in my opinion, even in live poker you have to analyze the hand from more theory optimal perspective if you don't have strong exploitative reads on opponent.

The way I would approach this spot is to give this guy some reasonable number of bluffs, than defend with the top of the range. Without going into deep analysis with flopzilla or PIO I would guess AK is for sure a call here both on the flop, turn and river. You could fold many different, weaker hands here. Its ok if you loose a stack from time to time when top of your range meets the opponent top. Stop leveling yourself and start analyzing.

AK without king spade is a calldown for sure, maybe we could fold AxKs somehow on the turn as his sizing is indicating very strong hand. (I expect him to shove pure flash draws alot of the time on the turn as it is PSB left)

I pretty much agree that I can just fold flop in a vacuum. I just didn't think I was in a vacuum i guess. Like v can't grind it out at Foxwoods or something so now he's here, and I'm getting flop raised 30 minutes into my history with him. I thought there was a decent enough chance that it wasn't a coincidence.

Anywho, I call the 130 and see an offsuit 2 on the river, which is a pretty great card. I call the river shove and see A3cc

I'm also like 80% sure I had Ks. I had AKo 3-4 times in the short time I was playing and I instantly got confused when trying to record the HH because I thought I had black AK, but clearly that's impossible. I too thought the theory approach was the way to go at the time, as AK is the tippity top of my flop cbet range, but meh I'm on a bad downswing and I should prob just sac the spot.

You are the one leveling yourself. Population exploits aside (the main reason for folding), the flop was taken 4 ways so traditional analysis from something like PIO won't apply. I bet if you plugged this hand into snowie it would fold flop as played. I think it also wouldn't bet so large on flop.

Ok I was wrong. Snowie thinks a flop call is +14bb~ EV as played. But that's because snowie doesn't have A2s/A3s/22/33/AA in their range (maybe we don't either idk). It also doesn't put 22/33/A3s/A2s in villains range so this isn't really a good analysis of the spot.

Anyways... lol @ trying to apply game theory concepts to this spot. Flop is a fold. Our read is that villain is at least some type of semi-regular. Think about what types of hands villain could have as a bluff? We bet the flop 2/3 pot into 3 other people and he's raising with someone still IP left to act. Not to mention when we are behind, we are drawing very very slim.

Literally never folding flop are you all sick?

Hi guys I'm new but thought id offer my thoughts and maybe constructive criticism?

Cant we take from this in hindsight you leveled yourself by reading too much into 'but overheard him saying that he's "back to grind the soft games" in the area a week ago.' ?
...
& so 'AK is the 2nd strongest hand I could possibly have here and it seemed bad to fold against a player who might be tough.'

Not necessarily that he was lying, (but rather maybe he believed that himself)

All this of course based on the general consensus that cold calling a3s 3 way (at that point) wouldn't be a typical winning play at higher limits

What pos were you in this hand specifically?

Without more info I fold, some can say that's nitty and exploitative but its not like I'm going to be folding this spot every time once I know more about opp.
We beat nothing & everything else that beats us would likely raise in order to get stacks in before scare card hits for hero and kills v's action (sets, MAYBE suited 45 & then the obvious 2 pair ace rags that live players LOVE to play bc they get paid off so often)

Furthermore couldnt one say back that's spewy to stack off with top pair top kicker with on that board texture with minimal info in todays world of poker

Why do you say that Cicakman?

Tough Hand Rhombo