Hero ($675): In for 900. Pretty inactive save for brief periods of wild swinging. Made a dumb call when my TPGK + NFD improved to trip A and my opponent jammed.

Villain (Covers): Young WG. Never seen him, the casino is packed due to a promo night. He is wearing a hoodie and an Upswing hat. Played a couple of hands very aggressively, but they did not go to showdown, and also chopped with AK. Seems like he opens a fairly standard TAG range from frequency alone.

OTTH:

V opens UTG+2 for $20; short stack fish calls; hero is in SB and raises to $100 with AK; v thinks for 30 seconds and calls; fish folds.

Flop (215): A Q 3
Hero leads $85. I know a lot of players never bet <1/2, but with the flop being both 3bet and monotone I thought 1/3 was OK. V raises to 215; it seemed bad to give up on my hand here so I call. I suppose I am trying to see a safe turn card and go from there.

Turn (645): 4
Hero checks; v jams; hero ???

Both calling and folding seem nasty to me. Spr is < 3, but it's hard to give him bluffs like a naked K. In a vacuum I tend to get played back in this spot for better or worse. Really no good reads on v, but based on my desc I shouldn't insta-run from his aggression.

Sigh, ...call...

Delighted when I see a mix of a naked K♦️Qx/Tx and JJ-99 about half the time, and “chips on table whatever” when I’m totally crushed by flopped diamonds or QQ/33 the other half of the time...

Ps: fist pumping and congratulating myself for my own genius the times I make a runner runner boat/quads



Edit: just noticed we’re making this decision on turn. Everything above the “PS” still applies

Man this is a close one. You only have to win ~1/4 Of the time to break even so I'm inclined to say call. Villain sounds smart enough not to set mine for 1/6 stacks so I'm ruling out 33. With only AQ/QQ and a flush to worry about I think there is enough semibluff to make the call.

We're not actually doing well at all against a TAG's range on this flop. We're slightly behind {KK-TT,AQs+,AQo+}, and way behind the part of his range that continues to a cbet (basically everything but the pairs w/ no diamond). Every hand that calls a bet has at least 11 outs, and obv some have us crushed. It seems weird with TPTK in a 3b pot, but against a TAG in EP, our goal should not be to pile in lots of money here.

As played, I'd guess there are probably enough bluffs/semibluffs in V's range to call it off. This is the brickiest turn we could've hoped for. If V doesn't have enough bluff/semibluffs, why were we calling the flop raise?

Check this flop if we hate getting raised.

Check flop