Hero UTG+2 $565: Pretty active and being dealt decent starting hands. Table is also particularly tight so I've been opening looser.

Villain UTG $1400: Other active player at table, I think he plays back a lot. I suspect he raises flop light in various spots as a cheap steal. Not many hands on him though.

HJ, CO, BTN $350 eff: relatively passive players, I suspect the CO and BTN have pretty weak hands and it's just one of those avalanche of calls scenarios.

V opens UTG for $16, H calls UTG+2 with 22, HJ call, CO call, BTN call, folds

$86 flop QJ2

UTG bets $45, Hero raise to $155, HJ CO BTN fold, UTG calls.

$396 turn 4

UTG checks, hero? (I have exactly a psb behind)

GII seems pretty obvious, no? What am I missing?

Villain has numerous overpairs/top-pairs with flush draws and same without FDs plus 2-pair and also KTs/T9s OESD we can get value from. I'm sure that's enough combos to easily match his combos of made flushes. We've got equity against the flushes anyway so we're not worried here except for his 6 combos of flopped sets.

With so many of Villain's hands we're currently ahead of having outs and us having outs against most the hands we're losing to and a small chance he mistakenly folds a hand we're losing against (small flush or a set) we just have to shove here.

Jam and expect the be called by a hand like K Q. If he has a flush, hope you fill up. I don't see what else to do here.

I think I am FPSing myself into thinking he won't call the jam with a worse hand. Maybe I'm projecting what I would do with pair + fd and wrongly assuming he would fold it. I did go all in but second guessed myself later when I asked what he could call with that I'm beating.

He probably just didn't have a strong enough hand, which will fold to a river bet anyway. Many rivers will kill action too. So check isn't going to get us much more money. In V's shoes, it's a tough decision with K in hand. Some people can't fold their naked A either. Pushing is the best EV play here IMO.

Fold pre.

I often object inside my own thoughts to the frequently used "fold pre" offered by many posters here.

But in this case I agree with SABR. "Table is particularly tight". Hardly a reason to splash around with 22 after UTG makes it 16.

16 UTG means he has SOMEthing. Fold pre, 22 could well already be dominated by UTG with 20% equity (IF we get to the river).

And if we are 3-bet after calling with 22, something wicked this way comes unless we suck out. At best we are racing against UTG but what about the rest of the table?

The tighter UTG open raise is the better spot we have for set-mining (better implied odds).

The reasons you might want to fold preflop is that this UTG isn't tight. But read in OP is limited - "raising preflop light in various spots as a cheap steal" likely doesn't include UTG opens!

Other reason to fold preflop is simply you have a lot of players to act behind you and both you and PFR are viewed as loose by the table. If you keep doing this you're going to open yourself up to getting squeezed which will drastically eat into your set-mining odds.

Even if you aren't getting squeezed extreme light there are enough players behind you that even if they start using a slightly expanded linear 3bet range vs you and the other active player you'll be getting 3bet 20-30% of the time.

/thread

I'd much rather call on the BTN or in the blinds than next in from UTG+1.

+1 to fold pre

IMO there's almost never a reason to call small pocket pairs from EP. There's too much risk of getting 3-bet *or* getting set-over-set from the cascade of callers that it really eats into your win rate.

To be clear, it's *not* the UTG open which makes this a fold. That tight range is actually an ideal spot for set-mining. I'd be snap calling this from LP.

AP, shove turn AINEC. All waiting for the river does is let him fold his pair+FD hands. If he didn't call the turn, there's no way he'd call the river.