(2/3 are the lowest NL stakes in the casino)

I've been at the table for about 2 rounds. I haven't seen BTN show down a hand, and he doesn't get into many pots. Hero has played only 2 hands outside the blinds; I took one down with a cbet HU and check/folded the other. I haven't played a hand with villain.

Effective stacks $200
Hero picks up QT in the CO
Folds to Hero, Hero raises to $10, BTN calls, blinds fold

Flop T84 ($20)
Hero bets $15, BTN calls

Turn 2 ($50)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30

I never feel comfortable in spots like this. Villain seems to like his hand even though he looks like a nit. I do have TPGK, but it's hard for me to imagine a V like this betting with A8 or a straight draw here. He might have JT, I guess (although I think he'd fold JTo), but he could also have KT or AT.

Thoughts?

Some villains will bet every time you check. This would be a good time to find out if he's one.

Mini-raise; if he calls, you're probably beat. I think that's better than deferring your decision to OTR. If he folds 3/7 of the time, you break even. And there's a chance you'll improve; your equity isn't horrible.

If a small raise has a chance at thinning the field, then I like the preflop raise sizing (as it enables us to attempt to steal the blinds / steal a pot with the least amount of risk). I often get in a tricky spot at my tables in these situations because a smaller raise will still (lol) go 4ways even raising from the CO, but raising much more is often putting too many chips at risk for the small reward.

SPR is 9.5 of the flop, so stacks could be played for with big bets on each street (which is something we obviously don't want with just TP3rdK). I'd either bet smaller on the flop to help prevent the pot from getting too big too quickly (ex. $10), or else just check and hope a street checks thru. A bet does protect a hand which is vulnerable to overcards, but it could also induce bluffs, so I'm really cool with either route.

The turn+ is a tough spot, imo. Really depends on whether we think this guy ever gets out-of-line, can barrel another street with nothing (or will he auto-checkback the river with most showdownable hands, even TP?). I think I like our turn check, but after that it's really all reads.

ETA: I don't think I like the check/raise route. If he has air he's drawing at most to 6 outs and is a big dog; I'd rather put in another bet snapping off a river bluff than simply getting him to fold worse hands that are drawing slim.

Gtoughspot,imoG

Absolutely not.

Call the turn and c/soul read river. Probably folding almost every time to a real bet.

^ Agreed. All the extra $5 does is build a pot; big pots for big hands.

^ Pointless self-flagellation.

Bet flop bet turn. Why are we pot controlling here?

AP call turn and evaluate. Leaning towards x/f river given the villain's image.

I don't mind this either (assuming we're bet/folding). With an SPR of 9.5 we can get away with small bets (1/2 PSB) without getting ourselves into commitment trouble. And then we can make a decision on the river whether to bet again (against non-believing calling stations) or perhaps checking (if villain is most likely on a busted draw and might bluff).

Glotsofoptions,althoughtheyalldon'tseemterrificbei ngOOPG

There is a portion of the time where we lose to a better T, but v can have a fair amount of draws and worse Tx where we can get value from by betting the turn. Especially if he has suited connectors, he's not folding if he's picked up hearts.

TL;DR pot control in this spot is AIDS

If you want to pot control, do it by betting, not checking. I.e., maybe $12 on flop, $20 on turn, $25-30 on river. At smaller sizes, a lot of villains will start raising hands that beat you (AT, overpairs), but never worse, so you can comfortably b/f and get three streets of value from hands like 99.

Bet, Bet, x-call

What are his flop + turn tendencies with his ranges?

Best way to extract most value from his bluff ranges + parts of marginal range that we beat?

2 street hand minimum you can get 3 streets if you have good reads.

what are you even pot controlling for in this spot anyways??
-Single raised pot
-LP vs. LP (CO vs. Button)
-Is villain agro maniac in that he raises 100% of his bluff range/semi-bluffs a lot when you bet?

I would 100% bet/fold flop, turn. A lot of different options OTR.

+1

Turn is a fairly standard bet/fold

More pre.

Bet flop.

Bet turn.

If $10 is the standard open at your table then I think that's fine. It does seem quite small though for a $2/3 game. Even total mouth breathers will pick up on it if you are opening small with speculative hands and bigger with premiums.

I like the C bet on the flop. I'm continuing to bet on the turn, folding to a raise.

As played, I'm calling the turn bet and check calling low cards that don't complete draws for up to 2/3 pot.

The only time I would ever check turn would be:
(1) if I were in the pot with a confirmed super nit, or
(2) if I wanted to check/raise an aggressive player that I thought was floating me pretty wide.

Against straightforward players why pot control when you can bet/fold?

The table was not super loose, so I was just raising 3BB + 1BB/limper any time I had a hand. I would have made the same raise with AA. This might not be good sizing, I guess; if the bad guys are going to call $15 with worse, no reason to let them off easy by raising $10 instead. I like playing in higher SPR pots though.

I ended up folding the turn. It sounds like that was a pretty big mistake though; I don't think V is likely to bluff, but he could bet hands like T9 or 99. He will call with some even worse hands, like overcardss or some straight draws around T8. There aren't too many of those hands but there are a bunch of T9 and JT hanging around.

I think I'll b/f turn here in the future.

Pot controlling by shading my bets small is a good idea. I should do that more often.

Great turn card for us. Bet $25-30.

Never folding to $30 turn bet. River is generally going to get difficult OOP.

You're under no obligation to play QT.

If this is the case, then just fold pre.

Eh, why not check flop or turn?

I mean, thinking about value, AT,KT,QT,JT,T9 are villain's top pair hands. Pre-flop, villain is quite unlikely to have worse Tx than T9 (of course, T8s is two pair anyway). And he's also often going to have close to all 16 combos of AT but just 4 combos of T9 suited. Could be on average like 16+12 = 28 of AT,KT and just 8+4 = 12 of JT,T9 (that is before accounting for blocking, which brings it from 28 vs 12 to more like 14 vs 4 or so / rough guesses obviously). 99 does not call both flop and turn. And JJ is possible and of course calls flop and turn. There really aren't any super likely or high equity draws. Maybe just a few combos of suited OESDs and the gut shot + overs we block 50% + maybe 4 combos of the 76s double gutter.

Betting flop + turn feels like a huge overplay to me. Not enough value from his range once you bet the flop and again bet on the turn.

I think OP played it perfectly.

Bet flop for widest possible value (lower pairs, the worse Tx, the few draws, peeling Ax, etc) as well as to get most unpaired Ax, Kx, Jx to fold away their equity.

Check turn and mostly just c/f. Or perhaps call the 30 on the turn with the plan to c/f river is debatable I guess. But I like either line better than b/f turn.

Kookie, I agree with the flop value bet for the reasons I mentioned.

Once villain calls flop, help me understand how you see villain's range going to the turn and why we can value bet again on the turn? How profitable is a 1/2 PSB turn bet?

Willy why not just bet/fold? Or check/fold river if called? Seems MUBSy to just assume we are up against AT or KT. 16 combos of JT/T9 and a whole slew of 8x plus any 32 combos of J9/97 for OESD, maybe 99, etc. I try not to overthink it in this situation and just assume my competition is terrible until I have reason to believe otherwise.

We are less than 70 BB's deep. I don't think we have to worry about the implications of overplaying TP3K.

I think Villian has a much wider range than that and we can get value with a 1/2PSB.

This is where I think we are after he calls OTF:

Board: Td8h4s
Equity Win Tie
CO 67.57% 65.67% 1.91% { QsTs }
BU 32.43% 30.52% 1.91% { JJ-77, 44, ATs+, A8s, A4s, KTs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

This is what I think we can get called by OTT:

Board: Td8h4s2h
Equity Win Tie
CO 59.26% 56.50% 2.76% { QsTs }
BU 40.74% 37.98% 2.76% { JJ-88, 44, ATs, A8s, A4s, KTs, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, Ah9h, Kh9h, 6h5h, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo }

A lot of the profit from QTs come from top pair marginal kicker hands like this one. So if I consistently misplay hands like this, you're right, it's not likely to work out for me.

But I don't see how I can be a winning player at all if I can't play top pair marginal kicker HU. It's not like it's a rare situation. I think I just gotta play these hands and post them here when I think I played them wrong.

Thanks for the good posts everybody, I have a lot to think about

I think you can play this hand profitably, and I would definitely go for two streets of value. Your biggest issue is being oop. One leak I see a lot from SSNL players that are taking the game more seriously is they start getting scared and putting villain on near nut hands when they aren't in love with their hand. It's very exploitable and you're missing out on a lot of value if you're just betting one street with your TPGK hands. If I saw you raise CO, c-bet and then x/f I'd be playing against you a lot ip and floating. Theres gotta be at least one person in your game picking up on that stuff...

That said, I'd bet flop and turn, especially that turn because it's such a brick.. It doesn't have to be too much. I think people overestimate the strength of hands that people will peel against a flop bet with in these games. They could easily have overs, lesser pairs, or an OESD here. I'd be willing to fold of the villain did something to tell me he had a better hand. I may check river, and I think most villains will check behind to see what you have, especially if they have any showdown value. If they over bet the pot it's a pretty easy fold without other reads.

I still find pretty lol that some people are fine foldig turn here. Your flop bet looks like a c-bet that you gave up on and many lesser hands could bet here ip: 8s , lesser Ts, overs, 99, etc..