Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
In the end, I hope this isn't given as a good reason to possibly spew once and a while for meta game purposes. You know what the chances are of making back-to-back nut hands within an orbit of spewing? Pretty low. I also reason this to myself after spewing in a hand and showing, and then saying "great, I'll get paid off now by these guys", and then I go 4 hours without making so much as TP and by that time everyone who had seen my spew has left the table.
Gdon'tmakeitahabit,imo,itwillnotpayforitselfG
thats what i was thinking when i heard about getting paid off on later hands. you have to have the hands. OP got lucky his spew paid off later, and even then might have been paid off anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh
I think your confusing my sentiment with that of someone who's obsessed with balance, gto, etc. I don't want him to bluff this combo for balance or gto or any of that stuff. I want him to bluff this combo, because I bet the EV of the decision is significantly higher than x/f. Putting some 2/3 donks turn range on solely boats, or even trips+ given all the prior action is silly (we might be able to assume that OTR), also assuming we only have one out vs his entire range is silly. The real question is whether or not to bluff OTR, and I think thats a fairly close decision. I think that potentially we should be jamming river tho, and not using this sizing. Were basically repping strong 8x, JJ, or 44.
This isn't ever true on early streets, and probably not on the river against all but the craziest of opponents. I don't even view it as protection. I'm just highly confident that the EV of betting this hand on the turn is substantially > 0 (folding). This could be proven as well, I'll could run a PIO sim where I nodelock assumptions about our opponent's strategy (we dictate how he plays) and see how we should react. Its possible we have to check-call this hand at some point, but I'm 99,99999999% confident we will never fold OTT. Given he's playing as wide as T8o vs a ISO, I think that should be intuitively apparent, but even if we give him a standard defending range here (much tighter) the way we play this combo will not change to the point we fold OTT.
you sound like someone who doesnt play a lot of live poker. i could be wrong, but you'd go broke pretty fast firing so many barrells into apparent strength so i doubt you've been hitting the streets much.
