Played a hand, it looks standard to me but I’d like to run it past the forum, see what you think. I make my money from AA/KK, so just want to see if my line should be tweaked.

Get KK UTG. Table was crazy earlier but sadly the maniacs left before I got dealt this hand. Is currently is loose-passive mode, lots of multiway limped pots. Hero is 40-something white guy, rock image to the extent that people are paying attention.

I lead out for $20. Raises around $15 are more standard and usually get between 2 and 4 callers. I expect this bet will still get 2+ callers because when one calls, others believe they are ‘priced in’. I find betting out $25 before anyone has limped will tend to fold the entire table so I've settled on $20 for a lot of raises.

Folds to BTN who calls, blinds fold. Villain is about 30, glasses, very black hair, pale skin. I guess Middle Eastern but could be anything. Looks like he lifts weights. No reads since he sat down 2 hands ago and hasn’t played yet. Has $300, hero covers. Blinds fold.

Flop ($45) KT9

Yay! Hero bets $35, villain calls straight away. My plan is to bet the turn hard and jam river.

Turn ($105) KT9 - 8

Boo! Hero checks, planning to call unless villain pots it. Will x/f non-miracle rivers if villain double barrels.

Turn ($105) KT9 - 8 - T

Yay! Hero bets $80. I think he mostly doesn’t have much but if I’m lucky he was slowplaying a turned straight or flush.

Thoughts?

Seem mostly fine.
I'm actually betting more on the river (or a lot less) because his calling range is mostly all monsters and weak bluff catches when he doesn't bet the turn (I.e.) he doesn't have a lot of straights / flushes.

So either bet something lol like $20 or $110.

Line looks good, though I also opt to (try) max value otr which I see as very inelastic.

Bet $125.

I like betting around half pot on the turn. Yes he could have a flush, but there are also a lot of other hands that you beat. If he raises turn, you know you're beat and can evaluate based on the sizing.

Seems mostly fine. I'm betting the turn for value though, not checking. That board is super wet and should be hitting V's range fairly well, so I want to build the pot against all his draws and inferior 1p-2p type hands he might have.

You said "Boo" when the 8 hits on the turn, but to me that's a lot safer turn card for your hand than it may appear. With a K/10/9 flop, that 8 really doesn't change much.

QJ flopped the straight so the 8 does nothing for that hand. 67 gets there eon a gutter, but is he really calling flop with the bottom end of a gutter and 2 unders. The other hand that gets there is J7 with a double gutter, but I would seriously discount this hand from Vs holdings with your preflop raise. The 8 adds a BD FD, so I'm definitely going for value here with the possibility that he picked up a flush draw to go with a straight draw or some type of one pair hand. Our hand is just way too strong to miss a street of value on such a draw heavy board.

EDIT: Just realized that the 8 completes the FD on the turn. I thought the 10 on the flop was a spade, not a club. With this info, your check is fine. I'm probably still betting turn though as I'd have no intention of ever folding top set here.

I bet the turn. It looks scary but the 8c isn't really that different from the 2c. Villain either flopped the straight or he didn't. I doubt he calls with 76. You can't let villain check for a free shot to hit a club.

As played, I probably over bet the river. Villain should have a very inelastic calling range. He'll call $80 as often as $150 or a shove.

I've seen enough small stakes players catch their flush on the turn and check it through "to keep you in the pot" that I would over bet the river so they think you are bluffing into the nuts (you could even do the "i'm not sure if this bluff will work, i'll add a few more chips just in case" tell OR checking (read dependent!!!) because there's a good chance they will value bet their "nuts" and you can then x/r and they will call because they won't put you on the boat.

btw - why not pot it on the flop given the board texture? If they're calling $35, they're calling $45 and it build a bigger pot enabling you to make better sized bets later.

I guess you get value from KJ/KQ/AK by leading out instead of c/r'ing.

What worries me in this hand is this : You have no value river check raise range ever my friend? I know c/r for value at low stake is mostly bad because most villains dont bet enough but this is a hand where you really need to consider it

Any hand that is calling beside TP(that you block) is also betting itself, this is a prime spot to c/r. He might even fold TP to your river bet anyway lol, I much rather lead out with TT then KK but I would probably c/r TT also.

I rarely pot it because these bets are unusual. I probably should play around with it though, I often see it used as a 'go away' bet OTF and I'd love someone to put me on a scared hand here.

My lack of a river x/r range is true and worth thinking about. That said, here I'm always leading vs. an unknown because the overall 'average' player is too passive i.e. will call with hands they won't bet. I've seen too many second nuts hands check or call on the river instead of betting or raising to risk a check back.

Yay! We got nothing in the pot since the flop.

Please bet the turn.

AP, shove the river (inelastic range here).

Fair point.

I do think that this hand is played relatively standard. However, the better line on the turn is to bet. V has way more pair+gutter hands and pair+club hands than he has made flushes. His flush range is six broadway combos: AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ,QJ. There may be a handful of other combos here if V is playing any suited ace or suited connections like 67/65, but those are more rare facing a big preflop raise in my experience.

In contrast, V has all sort of combo draws by turn. Any top pair hand that he has includes the K of clubs, so AKs/KQo/KJo are never folding. Hands like Q10/J10/J9 with a club now have straight flush draws and aren't folding. The only hands that are folding are potentially hands that had a pair+gutter on flop and now have no club. Get value from the hands that have real equity against you.

Our raise did get this HU, so nice result. I always fine KK tricky UTG at these types of tables cuz often a raise will get too many callers (setting up gross spots with small SPRs OOP) / blow everyone out and table is generally too passive to lean towards a limp/reraise (which is still not a horrible option).

SPR is 6ish, so a couple of 3/4 PSBs will easily get stacks in by the river. However, this board is dripping wet and there our a crapload of action/hand killers. It's actually a board I wouldn't mind getting the chips in just 2 streets, which we could accomplish with 2 like 1.5 PSBs. No one folds a draw on the flop, and if he's got complete junk he's probably not calling a big bet anyways. I might actually go like $75 to setup a turn shove.

I also check/evaluate the turn.

River I shove. Villain either has a decent hand (flush/straight/trips) or has pretty much a hand considered junk on this board. So I shove to target the only hands that are going to call any bet, and flush/straights/trips will have a hard time folding. I believe not shoving is actually a massive mistake here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

you guys are hilarious. no action from villain suggested that he´s got a strong range otr, and you are advocating shoving 2.5x pot.
and no reads to suggest this guy is a total idiot and would call with bare trips, a straight or even less (most likely hand) in this spot.

He can't have trickily checked back the obvious turn flush?

He couldn't have checked back the flopped straight when the scary flush comes?

He couldn't have called the flop with Tx and just tripped up on the river?

All of those hands are going to have a hard time folding ("why so much?"). And yet none of those hands are going to raise our bet.

And anything else (ex: 9x, 55, etc) is so weak that we can just totally ignore those hands as they are irrelevant (very unlikely to call a small bet let alone a bigger one). So just target their big hands, imo.

Ganythingotherthanashoveisamassivemistake,imoG

I'm not sure anyone necessarily said his range was strong OTR, just inelastic.

I agree with shoving the river. It's a spot where he will either call off his stack or he can't call a bet. You lose value by not shoving here.

a massive mistake? well, you could argue overbetting or close to pot, I´m fine with that, but shoving 2.5x pot?

again, there are no reads suggesting that villain is a total idiot and may call with trips, flush or a straight here. if we had that read, fine, but assuming he is halfway decent, he´s gonna fold everything but fullhouses to a shove imo

Gmaybewecangetbehindrivershovebutamassivemistakedo inganythingelseisbs,imhoG

It reps the nut SF in case he has the lower SF. The jet black hair has "hero fold" written all over it.

Perfect analysis. He never has a straight or trips, always a boat or air. I will eat my hat if this guy has a straight more than once in a million in this spot.

Back to reality, I guess I'll join the chorus and say I'm unhappy with the turn check. I would prefer to check the flop, although I suppose betting the flop is standard. Giving him the option of a free card OTT is an error, IMO.

I agree with this, this line from a middle age guy just screams strength. If the villain is paying any attention whatsoever he won't have trouble folding hands to a jam that will easily call a 3/4 PSB.

Jamming here is going to get a call from a hand that could still raise river, villain could have a few house combos that might just call flop and check back turn (KT, T9, 99) and he'll still get max value. But more often than not villain could fold a straight and trips to a jam. Just Bet a normal amount and you'll get called far more often and he's a likely to jam a hand thats calling your jam anyway

If he easily calls a 3/4 PSB of $75 with his strongish hands say 90% of the time, the bet has an EV of $67.50. For a shove against his strongish hands to have the same EV, he'd only have to call a mere 28% of the time. If he calls a shove with his strongish hands just 50% of the time (which I would still argue is at the low end of his calling frequency), that's an EV of $122.50, for a difference of $55 (about 3 hours work for a decent winner).

No one raises the river without the ~nuts. Heck, on this paired board even the nut flush is just calling a bet; they're rarely folding it, but they're rarely raising it either. We have to be the one deciding how much money goes in.

Our reads aren't great, but defaulting to the side of max value is best until our read is "villain is nit who can make very good hero folds".

Gaskandyoushallreceive,imoG

Completely agree. Our goal isn't to make villain call a bet. Our goal is to make as much money as possible.

Most of villain's calling range of nut flush+boats will have a hard time folding to any bet. Max value against this range and don't worry about sucking money out of a hand like JT.

+1

We of course feel totally stupid when he does fold, especially when he flips up Tx and says "I can't call a bet that big". But it's not about this time, it's about the long run, and in the long run he'll call enough of the time to make it more profitable than a much smaller bet (even though he calls the much smaller bet far more often).

GcluelessNLnoobG

what game do you play in where if you have a rocksolid image, anything but a underboat MIGHT call you?