I'm going to start off with some history of a hand at the table. Villain just gets seated to my left and is active from the get go. Posting UTG, limping, calling raises.

Hand 1: Hero (covers) is OTB w/ QQ. UTG limps, UTG+1 raises 17, UTG+2 calls, UTG+3 calls. Hero 3! to 80. V (340) calls 80 in SB. Folds to UTG+2, who decides to go all in for 95 total. UTG+3 folds, I call, SB calls

Flop (325) 962r, checks to Hero. Hero goes all in. SB folds. Clean run out for the scoop. I immediately move to the seat of UTG+2.

OTTH:

Hero (covers) is CO w/ A6. UTG limps, V limps, folds to hero. Hero raises 20. Both limpers call.

Flop (66) : J54 -- Checks to hero, hero bets 40. UTG folds, V tanks for 10 secs and cuts out 40$ for the call.

Turn (146) 8 -- V bets 95. Hero?

Thoughts?

What are stack sizes?

Stack size are important.
On the flop i can cbet a bit less on this kinda dry board because youll cbet allmost all the time on this flop so a bit less is better...
Turn: depends on stack size, math problem at this point depending on stack size and how much fold equity vs IO you think you have to choose between a call or a shove

Call. You're getting 2.5:1 immediately on a 3:1 draw, so you don't need to make up too much in implied odds to come out ahead here. With an MP limp, 67 can be in his range, but I agree with the other poster than stack sizes are important because it would determine whether or not we can get the necessary IO.

Oooo my bad. Utg has 230ish to start, V is UTG+1 and has 260ish to start. This hand takes place shortly after the QQ hand.

I was definitely already calculating my IO. If I call and hit -- I get the rest. So I'm calling 95 into 439 which is about 4.6:1. Worth it! So here's the remainder of the hand.

Hero calls, River (334): 6h. V is all in for 105. Hero? (His repped straight OTT now has only 8 comboes now).

Is call spew or should this be a fold?

What are your pot odds on river?

(334+105$)/ 105 = about 4.18:1, so i need to be right about 20% of the time.

There is some nonzero but close to it chance that you're ahead so just fold.

Talking Stick?

I like how you played the hand thus far. River is a fold.

For the people that are saying fold, why is it a fold? Given how the hand was played out, what hand(s) are being repped on the turn that goes all in on the river?

There is only a very small group of hands that villain can have on river that we beat. Really only worse flush draws that semibluffed the turn. So 4x with 2 diamonds, kq/kt, qt/q9.. you get the idea. And even then a lot of players aren't creative enough to take these lines anyway.

Villain frequently has a good pair, 2 pair or straight.. sets seem much less likely given the call on flop but there are still some. This is a super standard fold.



Edit: not sure why you think villain is 'repping' a straight on the turn.. there are lots of other made hands that will bet

Easy fold otr.
Villain has mostly straights, two pairs, and 8Xdd.
What worse 1p hand do we really think that he is going to gii with here when he has little to no FE?

Prolly T9dd is the only hand.
And when V rolls that, we pay him off way to often later on because of lol one hand sample size.

So like J8 OTT? That'd be only 9 comboes J's possible. His check call on the flop doesn't really convince me to believe he has J5, J4, 54, 55, 44 (I'm excluding JJ cause V would def raise this pre). I never believe he plays a set this way. After check/calling flop, top pair good/weak kicker would probably check/call turn on J548. EDIT: I mean I wouldn't count top pair good/weak kicker out of the realm of 2/3 donking OTT possibilities, however.

There is also 67, which the river and I block 8 comboes of. So that's 8 comboes of 67 that beat me.

I beat all the flush draws by the river including the ones that hold Kd4d and Qd4d. 11 hands with flush draws (Kdxd where x : Q,T,9,4,3,2 and Qdxd where x : T,9,4,3,2) I also lose to Kd8d, Qd8d, Kd7d, Qd7d. EDIT: I also lose to Td8d, Td7d, but I beat Td9d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d.

So as played, 23 comboes of hands i lose to : 15 comboes of hands I beat.

My odds to call are 4.18:1. Please let me know if my numbers are off, cause that would definitely change a call to a fold or vice versa. I'm not saying this is a call every time, but I don't think its a fold every time also.

ICYWW I wouldn't be so hard trying to prove my point if I didn't make the call.

After 2 limpers, one of whom is clearly very loose, I would typically just overlimp here. There's still 3 players to look at their hand behind us, and if anyone of them calls, we end up going 4way to the flop (possibly even OOP to someone) with a weak A. If a couple of tight fit/foldy players had limped I could get more either/or regarding a raise, but I think overlimping (especially in this case) is better.

I'm cool with the flop semi-bluff bet attempting to take it down, although I might go a tad smaller to give us better odds (maybe even like lol $25 since Villain is unknown and thus doesn't have enough history with us to read anything into our bet sizing).

A preflop/postflop call/call then a turn donk is typically fairly strong, imo. It's a little unclear how many outs we have with our flush draw + gutshot. If he has a set / two pair, then our flush outs are reduced; if he's hit his straight, our gutshot outs are reduced (plus we're only chopping the pot). 10 outs probably ain't a bad guess, and this puts us in 4:1 territory. We're not quite getting 3:1, but being in position against an obviously loose guy (based on previous hand), I'm guessing we can make up that bet on the river. Our FE (if we're thinking of semibluffing here) is probably low against this guy. I call and plan on shoving river if I hit my draw, folding otherwise.

ETA: Didn't realize we had so little left on the turn, which makes it fairly close if we properly guesstimate out outs (instead of always giving ourselves a best case scenario of 12 outs). I'd probably call but not feel great about it. And I'm folding this river.

GcluelessNLnoobG