Quote:
Originally Posted by b1gwh4le
Thanks for the response. I have the same line of thinking and preflop agreed both seem ok but vs a seemingly tilting villain with a relatively wider range, I prefer 3!.
With the river bet, the problem is what Kx can we get value from? AK he might be 4! sometimes but of course he can sometimes flat. Although we might expect AK to bet turn? He's not total fish/tilting so hard where he is opening hands like K9/K8 imo; that leaves hands like KQs KTs and KJs; none of which I can really target as value hands.
Hands to get value from on the river leave: AA (obviously unlikely), AK (possible but unlikely to me), AQ (would be closer to a hero call for him on the river), a counterfeited QTs? All seem unlikely.
Thoughts?
@Dochrohan if you're not 3! JJ vs a semi-LAG + tilting villain here, then when are you? Sure if he's a good solid player then yes there are ROI and so forth... but he's not a good solid player. I can see him opening SC here.
JJ seems to have too much value vs this profile.
In my experience, a somewhat comepetent player, may seem tilted, but unless you have true merit, which you do not mention, after they lose their stack once, they tend to change to a slightly tighter style. I don't expect a huge UTG range, but 3b! here is not terrible, it's never going to be bad vs described V. It's profitable, if your read is he does raise SC from up, of course you 3b!.
I never hate the 3b! unless he's a nit. Generally 3b! JJ from UTG+1 is what I hate doing. MP is when it's nearing snap.
I just think you should and could vs some start to mix in the flat of JJ. It's never anticipated that you flat JJ there by a lot of people and you can do quite well in a multiway pot with it.
But if you are dead set he's tilting and opening wide, snap 3b! JJ here and take his stack when he hits something he likes.
As played, I like how the whole hand was played. It's a good check flop, would be super dumb to bet, betting turn is where your first real situation comes up, but I bet here all day for value, it sucks, but hey we need to start getting some money.
River is actually closer, but I still bet/fold. Maybe tilts AQ call and calls AK.
If you get c/r, I do understand you thinking you can call it off, but realistically, no, you can't.
You don't think he flats AA pre-flop vs an UTG+1 3b! do you? He's tilted, I doubt he's getting fancy, he probably thinks it's time to get your stack vs your "KK".
So you're starting to narrow his range to KK/KQs/QQ/TT, this is nearing never ever AJ land. if he's really steamed, KQo.
Let's be real, your hand is face up, it's pretty damn suicide to jam this river vs most when you think they have a straight as most do not tend to have a fold button. So unless he's sick, I rarely doubt it's a bluff. It's almost he always has it.
Bet fold $80-$90, call it a day.