Villain in this case is an early 30s winning European reg. We tangled once before, and he asked me if I would have folded to a triple barrel. This left me with the impression he may suffer from Fancy Play Syndrome, which influenced my decision in this hand. Still, this hand left me horribly confused and I feel like I probably misplayed it.

Villain's stack is 500, Hero covers.

OTTH:

Two EP limps, Hero looks down at JKo on the BTN and raises to 25. Villain calls in SB, and one of the limpers calls. Pot = 81.

Flop: AK2r
Checks to Hero who bets 50, Villain calls, EP folds. Pot = 181.
I'm betting here with the intention to check most turns and pot control.

Turn: J, completing the rainbow.
Villain checks, Hero bets 80. Villain raises to 200.

At this point I am so confused. My hand is essentially a bluff catcher. At the same time, villain is repping such a tight range. Basically 22, and maybe AJ. Should I be folding here?

I ended up calling. Pot = 581.

River:8
Villain shoves for 225, hero calls.

I wanted to fold turn since I'm only beating bluffs, but I felt it was too nitty to fold Two Pair 166bb deep, with an SPR~1, when villain is only repping like 9 combos. Is this a standard call off? What's the worst hand we're calling off here?

Check very dry flop. Sb is pretty strong calling from sb with 3 V's left to act.

What worse do you get called by OTF?

OTT, standard bet-fold. You've shown great strength flop and turn, and yet he still raised. You could call if you were super deep but meh

OTR, I know it's a great price but it's still a fold. I don't think you are good here 1/10 times, let alone 1/3.5 times

^^ That. Villain ought to be scared of you on the turn here, having raised pre your range on this board for betting twice is going to be pretty strong. You have AJ, AA, KK, AK among other things.

So what's the worst hand I'm calling with on the river? GTO says I'm supposed to defend 75% of the range I get to the river with, right? Is that just my 9 combos of sets, 9 combos of AK and 9 combos of AJ? Should I always fold all my KJ combos in this spot? What if I've seen Villain make large river bluffs in the past? Would that influence my decision?

Why can’t he have QT too? He can also have AK just calling pre this deep. You’re telling him on the turn that you have AQ min but he still c/r and shove river on a board that strongly favors your range. I’d have checked the flop and bet most turns. I wouldn’t even be surprised if V had AA occasionally and just called pre.

He has a high 3-bet percentage (the European stereotype fits in this way), so I don't put him on AK a lot of the time here. My raise on the BTN was attacking two EP nit limpers, so Villain will know my range is pretty wide here. If he had AK he would have raised. Yes, QTs is in his preflop range. But is he really calling flop with only a gutshot? We aren't that deep, and he's not guaranteed to make money off me even if he hits. I could be wrong, but I'm heavily discounting AK and QT based off the assumption this guy is a thinking player.

Flop bet is very very very bad

Thinking players can deviate from “normal” strategy too.

Bet flop 1/3 or check.

Ap turn dbl barrel is fine but insta fold to the turn raise.

Fold river.

Idk what you expect to beat ott/otr, plus he can have AK sometimes and def QT.

Maybe villain takes this line with aq, kq, at (Less likely) but we should be smoked by everything else

Unless villain is highly aggro/bluffy, doing weird things with a bare a, folding turn seems normal

I don't give villain credit for qt either but it's not like hero should ever have it

IMO these types of situations are probably the biggest leaks in an OK-but-losing small stakes live NL player. Soooo many people just lose their stack here turning the J.

Big mistake. GTO sucks in low limit games. You make much more money playing an exploitive style. Forget GTO. Forget everything you know about it.

Figure out each persons leaks and exploit them.

I don't really mind the flop bet, but the turn should be a fold here when raised. Like others have said, you've shown strength including an A in your range yet he's obv raising w/the intent of gii.

So, results were that Villain mucked his hand on the river after I called. Which doesn't mean that my play was anywhere close to correct against a standard villain. The results of the thread have definitely convinced me that in a vacuum this is a fold.

I guess the question I was most interested in hasn't been addressed by anyone. What's the weakest hand we're calling with in this spot? I dont want to focus on flop play, so let's just assume our BTN raise/double barrel range is {AA,KK,AK,AJ,QTs,AQ,AT,KJ,JJ} -- I understand it's arguable whether we should be betting flop with KJ,JJ, or betting turn with AT, but for the sake of argument let's assume we do. Villain's intention on the turn is clearly to gii. So it's a pot-sized all-in reraise to us on the turn. What are we calling with against a standard villain (either tricky/bluff-capable or ABC). Is it AJ+ or just AK+?

Glad it worked out, still feels like a fold reading the HH. I'd call AJ+. Part of the problem with KJ in this spot is that even if V has a hand like AT, he still has decent equity against KJ, while he's nearly dead vs AJ+. If he has A2, he has us dead with KJ but he's dead against the AJ+ range. I don't know if V would play A2 this way though....you know V better than we do.

I just overlimp preflop but that's me.

Seems like we're pretty WA/WB on the flop, so I just check behind.

If I'm betting the turn, I'm betting to fold; this board smacks our preflop raising range and yet we're getting check/raised. Enough got there on the turn (or we could have been behind on the flop) for me to consider just checking it back and getting one more street on the river while getting to showdown(either by calling a bet or betting if checked to). ETA: Another good reason to check behind on the turn is that results show we're up against a wildcard, where we don't feel comfortable bet/folding (and yet should still really do so if betting).

I don't get to the river and think we've backed ourselves into a very poor spot: one where we might consider ourselves committed for the price in a huge pot and yet against most players we're very rarely good here.

Overall, I wouldn't put too much stock in what people say at the table; I say BS like that all the time to hope someone eventually falls for it and pays me off. Instead, look for actual proof that this guy is capable of getting out-of-line.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The only time we want to c-bet second pair is when we're heads up and when the board is connected, usually with a flush draw. Being multi-way increases the likelihood our opponents have an ace, and we aren't getting value from any worse hands.

AP, I'd fold to the turn raise because, as someone else said, you're repping a very strong range and this player still elected to x/r you.

There are a lot of hands we can get value from with 1/3 psb if we elect to do that instead of check. Weaker Kx, J10, QT, maybe sometimes double backdoor hands or non believing pp. They’re forced to defend more of their range given our sizing. we can deny eauity to any PP if they fold and buy cheap turns + river vs Ax and we will almost never get bluff raised here I do think check and 1/3 are both fine but overall i like 1/3 slighty better. Agree that betting this flop with this size is not a good option tho