Villain new to table, but has managed to turn his initial $200 into ~$1800 in no more than 3 orbits. Seems to play at least 1/3 of his starters, raising a bit less than half of those PF when opening or facing a limper or two. Has flopped or turned nuts in a bunch of hands. Also hit TP with J8 suited which he played fast and managed to hold against an even weaker player.

Hero $625. Has been tight for duration of Villain's observational window. Seating immediately to villains right, hero retorted, "it's the player, not the seat" when villain proclaimed he's in the hottest seat of his life. Villain busted out a player 2 hands prior to the hand in discussion so Hero re-positioned to sit directly across from villain.

Eff stacks $625. Villain UTG, Hero MP with AA

V raises $12, 1 caller (~$200), Hero re-raises $40, V calls, caller folds.

Flop $91 after rake.

855

check, Hero bets $65, V calls.

Turn $221

4

check, hero bets $180, V calls. TBH, I didn't even consider 76 until writing this, but as I wonder about my sizing here & the river, I think I should have.

River $580 after rake.

J

V bets $250.

Not the best card, but needing 23% equity, I didn't think much about calling here. Thoughts? If I'm reading my own play right, commitment happens OTT & I suppose that's where I'd like advice the most, though I welcome tips on all streets. For example, should I have shoved the remaining $90 in there?

3-bet pre seems a little small. This deep I'd probably go $50.

Flop seems fine.

I like betting turn but probably go about 125. We have the As so block a lot of V's draws. Your sizing sets up a river shove which may be overplaying our hand.

I call river bet but expect to be beat a lot. I wouldn't shove. JJ would make perfect sense to V, but so does QQ. Would be surprised to see a flush unless it was KQss

never ever calling this. if its not 67 or a boat, its just a flush.

+1 Raise more pre

+1 Bet turn smaller

Fyp

Well played sir. A brilliant rebuttal.

Yeah I agree w/Alexandar. Your sizing throughout seems a little odd. I would go bigger pre and smaller ott. Folding on the river is fine.

You only have three orbits of info on the villain so I think it's not enough to make certain assumptions.
I would have liked to know couple things:
1. Does he play positionally aware? An UTG 4x raise shows significant strength however I have seen some players do this with small/mid PPs or J10, QJ type hands. Also a cold call eliminates some hands like KK or the very unlikely AA.
2. How passive or aggressive was he? When he was chasing the flush, did he raise the nut flush draw on the turn? When he hit it, did he lead out? When he flopped the nuts, did he slow play? J8 hand is interesting that he fast played a mediocre top pair hand....

Without knowing these, it's hard to say.

Let's think about his range...
He raised UTG and called a $40 3bet. So, considering his current hot streak and feel good, I would think he might have medium to high PPs, face cards and Ax suited... Small possibility of suited connectors.
Since he only called a 3bet I am removing the unlikely AA and KK. I also think QQ might be unlikely. On the flop, I would expect him to fold most unimproved small/medium PPs and unimproved non spade face cards. When he check calls the big turn bet, I think he has either a strong made hand (88/76) or the flush draw. I would remove all mediocre hands from his range. Unfortunately, river completes the flush draw. After your strong turn bet, this river bet shows either a tremendous strength or a bluff.

It's less than a half sized bet and you don't need to win too many times to make it at least a break even play and you do have the A of spades. At this point, if I felt he was a passive player, I would fold. But if he is someone that over values his mediocre hands such as J8, I would call. I can't imagine a call being horrible based on SPR. With the specific turn and river cards, I don't think a fold would be horrible either.

Sigh call/fold from me....



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Most of what you said points towards a fold but then you try to justify calling due to Some irrelevant factors such as what if he was someone who overvalues hands, sounds like you just dont wana dump bullets eventho you know you should

Youre right, when he calls turns hes super polarized to strength and bluffs on river bet, problem is, why the f would this guy bluff? He wouldnt, hes hitting everything anyways , he doesnt need to, plus we have no info hes a bluffer, and most importabtly, when he calls our potsized turn bet, its easy to admit we are behind. Only thing we beat was a flush draw at that point or some weird QQ which doesnt bet river.

As stated without any further reads on player it has to be a fold. Nothing in this hand or what youve said makes sense for him to have a random bluff and all his value hands are beating yours. Also betting turn smaller.

Preflop, flop, turn all seem fine. Now fold, you're beat. Not sure why so many people don't like turn sizing, seems results oriented to me.

Love that we seat changed as soon as this guy to our left got deep; getting in pots OOP deep sucks, nice job dealing with that.

I find preflop tricky. Our "typical" 3bet size here probably just turned our hand face upish, will create a HU SPR of 6.5 (where Villain could simply donk/donk/donk fairly smallish to play for stacks postflop, can we manage a postflop fold to that?), all the while getting terrific 22+:1 odds preflop (fairly awesome setmining odds). To prevent ~setmining odds, I would have preferred a raise to about ~$100 with these stacks, but of course there is a very good chance we don't get any action whatsoever (although we do sigh take down 9bb risk free, which can't totally be ignored). If we flat, we'll create a much more manageable SPR of 17 3ways, but I'm guessing there is too good a chance we end up 5ways with an SPR of 10 (manageable SPR, but too multiway and possibly OOP). Every option has it's drawbacks. The more uncomfortable we are with postflop play taking the $40 preflop route, the more we should take the $100 preflop route, imo.

As predicted, the $40 preflop route has produced a smallish SPR where stacks will easily be played for postflop (i.e. if the river bricked would we be able to fold to a 60% PSB shove given that opponent might think QQ is the nuts here?), all the while with a hand that is very face up the whole hand thru, while giving terrific preflop odds. Thankfully in this case *everything* got there by the river (even JJ), and given that I'm guessing this guy might 4bet KK, that means we're ahead of QQ. I'd probably hero fold, but river decision would be much more difficult on a blank.

Gpreflopisverydifficult,imoG

62$ preflop

I like the way you played it.

River descision doesn't really matter .. it's super close either way given the cheap price.

Bet more pre if you want to go PSB/PSB and gii on the turn. I'd probably only make 1/2 PSB on the flop/turn, planning to go for three streets with another value bet on the river if checked to. As others has stated, the turn size is way too big.

You showed a ton of aggression throughout the hand, 3! pre, 3/4 PSB, 3/4 PSB. Villain has about zero bluffs in his range. I think it's very likely he hung around with a ****ty flush draw and it hit. I don't see J8/KK/QQ betting the river. You don't beat enough of villain's range to justify a call.

I must suck because I'm snapping this river every time against a villain as described. I agree turn bet should be more like $140-150ish though.

When the last time a V took a check/call, check/call, donk bluff the river line?

He's not taking this line with QQ, so its possible that this leaves us with only 6 combos of KK that he could overvalue like this (still doubtful our V bets 225 with one pair on a flush and paired board). I think we lose to so many more of the spade combos and a few boats like 88 and JJ.

I realize this will spoil my own thread and I'm being results oriented, but since a consensus has become apparent (thanks to everyone who replied BTW), the last time for me was the hand in question.

Sometimes no matter how much hand reading we do, our Villains have just made up their mind from the get go that they are going to flat out steal the pot with air (while risking their whole stack over multiple streets to do so).

My fave hand from earlier this year: I'm in a very loose 1/3 NL game. The very very very loose ATC guy limps for $3, so I $40 on the Button with KK (lol, amirite?), and unexpectedly the Villain in the SB with $400 flats, and we end up HU. QTT I bet small when checked to, and he calls. 3r turn and he donks to threaten remaining stacks by river. I call (to keep in his bluffs and weak Q) and plan to stack off on river, except now a Qr rolls off and he shoves. I sigh fold. He shows J5o. No amount of hand reading is going to be able to figure this out.

GclickingbuttonsG