Hero ($500): Recently joined the table. Image very LAG and winning. Raising and winning a lot of pots without showdown. One guy seems openly frustrated every time I raise preflop.

Villain ($500): No real reads of tendencies. Does not seem like a competent player.

Folds to Villain in MP who raises $10, hero to his left 3 bets to $30 with AKo. Everyone folds, villain calls.

Flop ($65): a 2 3 rainbow. V checks, hero c bets $45 and V calls.

Turn: ($155): 10x. V checks, hero bets $100 and V calls.

River: ($355): 9x. V checks, hero???

I've been trying to incorporate bet/folding in my game but it doesn't seem like I can do this here without being committed. Is shoving for value the best play?

I would bet around 200, im not sure he can call a shove here with Ax

In a 3bet pot like this, I generally prefer a check behind on the flop for balance, which allows us to also check behind QQ/KK in a similar spot. Betting this flop advertises that we have AK/AQ. Practically, the flop is a WA/WB spot. Either he has 2/3 outs, or he has us crushed with a set.

We are unlikely to get 3 streets of value from him, and he is more likely to give us 2 streets with Ax or a lower PP on the turn/river, since we will have "shown weakness" by checking the flop.

AP, check behind. We can only target AQ/AJ, which may not even pay off a third bullet.

I disagree with checking the flop for balance as I'm going to be cbetting this board nearly 100% of the time I 3bet, either with a light 3bet that has no hand or JJ-KK as I dont really want to turn my hand faceup

How often are we/should we be 3betting light in this spot, when we are to the direct left of the PFR who opened in MP? (In other words, no dead money, and no reason to think PFR opened light, like he might in LP) Answer - almost never.

Bet for value. If he spiked a second pair, so be it.

He has played this hand like QQ, KK, AJ, AQ.

If he slowplayed a set, congrats to him for fining a value oriented player to do his betting for him.

+1 to checking behind. If the pot were 3ways or more its a mandatory cbet. But in this instance the pot is heads up in a 3bet pot where we have the initiative, position, a hand that dominates our opponents range, and no realistic draws to be concerned about. We are never stacking our opponent here, so lets try to get 2 streets from Ax on the turn and river and we can get one street from 1010+ that may bet into us on the turn that would probably fold to us if we bet the flop.

With TPTK here against a player who seems competent, I'm usually only trying to get two streets of value. A lot of times I'll check behind this flop, there really aren't any realistic draws, and try to get my value on the turn and river. Benefit is that we disguise our hand a bit. If I bet flop, I probably check a blank turn and bet river.

As played I also check behind on river. Wouldn't be opposed to bet $100/fold if raised.

We should have a plan right from preflop, imo. By 3betting to $30, we setup an SPR ~8 where Villain can easily donk into us on 3 streets on an A high board for stacks; will we be comfortable stacking off having given him 25:1 implied odds preflop? Or are we going to pot control a lot and attempt to check behind a street (if possible)? We could 3bet to a large $75 which would prevent setmining odds, but of course we also lose our customer a lot too. There's no other dead money in the pot; I don't think it would be a crime to simply flat (and possibly reraise if someone is capable of loose 3betting a small open). Anyhoo, just something to think about.

Preflop has setup an SPR of a little less than 8. Which means that stacks can be played for by just betting a 3/4 PSB on each street. Do we want to do that? If so, do that. If not, do something different (i.e. checking behind a street to pot control).

It's difficult to assess what we want to do. On the one hand, we have an aggro image, so a lotta people might call us down lightly, including this guy who is described as probably not being competent. But on the other hand, other people love to trap aggro players, and just simply check/call them into the poorhouse with their monsters.

By the river, we left ourselves with less than a PSB left (where I don't think we can bet/fold, especially against someone who might not be competent and could consider A8 the nuts here against an aggro player). But this is exactly what was going to happen as soon as we raised preflop and bet the flop / turn.

Ghaveaplan,imoG

bet/bet/shove
doing anything else would be dumb

It's not as dumb as you make it if Villain dumps everything weaker than Ax on the turn. Yes, we miss value from weaker Ax (who will probably stack off), but hopefully we'll make up for that by ensuring 2 bets out of hands drawing extremely slim / not losing our stack when behind.

GimoG

aq is a textbook bet/bet/shove here. aj is close

Bad vil gonna have a lot of AQ and AJ and JJ/QQ here. This is definitely a value bet. Size is debatable.

Most important is c back flop or turn once by far.
I would prob value bet river on smaller side instead of shoving.

Bet bet shove is p silly and honestly people should've able to get away from their hand when you play your hand as face up as possible lol.

id bet something like 150 here. WP thus far

I agree with this. The only reason I don't shove is because our flop and turn bets were only 2/3 PSB and a river shove would be nearly a PSB.

If we know villain has exactly AQ then of course we shove. But targeting a range of {AQ, AJ, A8-A4}, I think a nice value bet of $150-$175 has a much better chance of being called then a shove of $325 into $350.

If I have a live read in real time that this guy is a drooler then I am definitely shoving though.

Johnny, I'm assuming if we bet $175 then we're calling a shove ($150 to win $855, need to be right 15% against a non competent player who might be overvaluing his hand against aggro us)?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Isn't b/b/shove (or b/b/b/c) way overplaying our hand in this spot?

Our hand looks exactly like AK/AA. Are we really expecting AQ/AJ to pay us off on three streets when our hand is this transparent in a 3bet pot?

35, 60, 135, 270

Trying to look at this systematically:

Let's assume that V calls our 3-bet w/ Ax. Let's also assume that he never has a set here since he'd have bet somewhere, and that we can never unintentionally bluff him off a better hand or AK. Let's also assume he never calls a river bet with anything worse than AJ. Can we value bet?

So, V has 8 combos each of AJ and AQ. He has 6 combos each of A2, A3, A9 and AT. AK is irrelevant since it's a chop. So, if that ranging is right there are 24 combos that call and beat us and 16 that call that we beat, even if he never folds AJ or AQ, and we can't really value bet.

Now let's change the assumptions a bit, and assume he never has A2 or A3 here, either because he wouldn't have raise/called with those hands pre-flop or because he would have been more aggressive if he'd flopped two pair. Now, there are only 12 combos of A9 and AT that beat us, and 16 combos that could call and we beat. In that case, we can potentially value bet here if he's always calling with AJ or AQ. However, if he folds AJ half of the time, value bet is now break even, and if he ever folds AQ as well to a third barrel value betting is a bad idea.

Of course, you can play with the assumptions more. For instance, if he could have a slow/poorly played set or straight here, value betting looks a lot worse. If he could conceivably call with A8 and worse Aces, then value betting may make more sense, though at some point you have to add A2 and A3 back into his range which gives him more combos that you're behind again. Similarly, if checking three times means he can't ever have better than TPTK, then we should always be value betting.

I think the fulcrum here is AJ. If he always calls a bet with AJ, it's probably OK to value bet here, but still thin. In light of that, and changing what I said up-thread, I bet something small here in hopes of getting called by his entire range that gets to the river. Maybe a same bet of $100, on the theory that he called it on the turn and therefore shouldn't fold on a blank river to the same bet. I'd fold if raised. Can't argue too heavily with checking behind though, if you think V is good enough to let go of TPMK here, or a shove if the read is that V is a donk who will call with any Ax. Think it's a pretty marginal spot.

thanks for the replies!

i don't think balance is that important in this particular field. i'm betting this flop with my air as well so shouldn't i balance that with betting with my made hands? don't i lose value by checking back a street?

im really against flatting his raise pf. i agree that our hand looks super strong when i 3 bet right behind villain but at the same time some of that is diminished by the fact that i'm seen as a maniac at this moment.

against this villain, i actually think he would call a river shove with aq, and maybe even aj. on the river, i tanked for a few minutes deciding whether or not to shove and it seemed like villain didn't want this from his demeanour. i also really don't think he's good enough to fold top pair decent kicker on this dry board regardless of how face up i played the hand. my thought process preflop was to 3 street it up if i hit an ace because this type of player seemes like he would pay me off with worse.

anywho, after tanking for a couple minutes i checked behind and villain ended up showing AQd.

im glad the decision isn't that cut and dry but after looking over it more, reading the comments and trying not to be results orientated i think i should've shoved.

Saying "I should have shoved" is being results oriented. If your intent was to get stacks in the middle, think about how you could have sized your bets better to organically get stacks in on the river using a decreasing bet size proportion in relation to the pot.

For example:

$50 on flop (83% PSB)
$125 on turn (78% PSB)
$295 on river (72% PSB)

Rather than what you think you should have done

$45 on flop (69% PSB)
$100 on turn (65% PSB)
$325 on turn (93% PSB)

This is basically just a longer explanation of what suited fours proposed

You should go for three streets of value given your image. Villains may call you down lighter with Ax. It's very unlikely villain hit a set. You should feel comfortable TPTK is good. Bad luck if villain spiked two pair on the turn.

I'm not sure what 'villain isn't a competent player' means. I'm assuming that he would call down with a worse Ax and if so, you should bet $150-200 on the river.

Right, the implied message is plan this from the beginning. For whatever the reason, if you think villain will x/c unimproved Ax all the way, then right from preflop, make your plan for all the monies.

makes a lot of sense, thanks. i really do need to get better at sizing so that i can gii on the river without betting too big