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Old 05-28-2016, 02:51 AM   #1
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2/3. KK vs c/r vs TAG-ish player on wet board

Line check please.

Villain at ~100bb, hero covers. V seems like a late 20's abc type TAG. Not involved in many pots. Haven't seen a showdown I remember. Might recall a few loose/floaty flops vs whale w/ wide range. My fault for not re-verbalizing reads as I make them for better memory. He lost a decent pot to what looked like a cooler as he mucked. Sees hero likely as tight & possibly too aggro/protective on flop. I'd been in many pots but only had a few showdowns. Had KK 4 times in about 8 orbits. Have c bet flop to fold on later streets in a few other hands, especially in those where I made $20+ pf raises as I was getting too many callers with $15 & had position on incompetent loose deep-stack.

In MP, hero KK no , opens to $16 (Whale was of the table, so I didn't need to go $20+). Folds to V in BB, who calls. I think his range is mainly QJs+, PP, hopefully no AA/KK. QQ/AK maybe..? Haven't seen him 3bet thus far (90-120 min). Might try to be sneaky w/suited connectors/gappers thinking he has live cards if he's not using sc to balance any sort of 3 betting range.

Flop $28 after rake. 9-7-2

V checks, Hero bets $15, V calls.

Turn $58. 9-7-2-5

V checks, Hero pauses & fires $30, V re-raise $85, HERO?

On the surface the line looked solid but in the moment something didn't sit right. That is, at first I considered he might have tried try to be sneaky w/suited connectors/gappers thinking he has live cards if he's not using sc to balance any sort of 3 betting range. But then I thought if he sees me c-betting frequently, wouldn't any draw or solid hand c/r OTF? Also, why try to push me off worse when I might pay more OTR? Still, could it be a set or maybe straight scared of a 4th ? All thoughts and advice on all streets appreciated.
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Old 05-28-2016, 01:00 PM   #2
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Re: 2/3. KK vs c/r vs TAG-ish player on wet board

Seems standard until the raise OTT. At this point I'm mostly always giving credit to OTT raises unless I have definite reads to the contrary. The raise seems totally plausible to me (mostly flushes and sets), and I don't think you can stand the heat OTR.

Last edited by jake; 05-28-2016 at 01:00 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 05-28-2016, 01:01 PM   #3
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Re: 2/3. KK vs c/r vs TAG-ish player on wet board

Your not always losing here but folding is still best. You don't have the Kd so you may have no outs at all when you are behind and even if you do it isn't clear how many or what they are. When you are ahead it isn't clear what you need to dodge as villain could have all sorts of live combinations.

I would have bet a bit more on the flop, the board is sorta wet and you would be happy to end this hand at that point. Turn bet is a bit over eager, checking and trying to get to a cheap showdown would be better.
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Old 05-30-2016, 11:53 AM   #4
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Re: 2/3. KK vs c/r vs TAG-ish player on wet board

Nice job identifying what size of raise is going to be needed to narrow field.

SPR is 10 on somewhat drawy flop. We've been getting hit with the deck and cbetting a lot, so we might have a little bit of a FOS image which this guy *might* play back at a little if given the chance (and we'd probably feel pretty uncomfortable facing a check/raise). Villain isn't described as a complete idiot, so getting paid off for 3 postflop streets might be difficult. I'd plan for one of two routes with this SPR: on a non-******ed runout, I'd either bet/fold small on all 3 streets, or bet biggish on the flop and then check back the turn to setup a bluffcatcher / value bet on the river; I'm fine with either.

As played, looks like we were attempting the 3 small streets route (fine), but when this bad card comes on the turn I think we might be better off modifying our plan and checking behind to setup a river decision for one last bet. The more uncomfortable we are folding to a check/raise, the more we should be checking behind, imo. As played, I'd fold.

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