I agree with the fold pre crowd. We have the god seat on this fish so I'm not itching to play with him the one hand he has position on us if it means we have to also be OOP to a good player with initiative. If the BU were a player with a fold button this would be a great 3b spot, but with him being a fish we just don't have the FE we need.
I don't particularly mind a flop c/r sometimes if he'll fold TP but c/c is also fine. Definitely not gonna c/f to someone with a 100% c-bet frequency so far.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
As for turn donk. Its really terrible given the fact that most people just don't double this board without an over pair
I agree with the sentiment here. The T is a really good card for our range and not a great one for his perceived range (probably not bad for his actual range imo but still better for yours). I think you can check and be reasonably confident that he's only going to bet with fairly strong hands. I'd probably c/f to a big bet or c/c a small one giving you odds to draw.
GG seems to think that villain has a very overpair heavy range, and if that's the case, then a turn c/r(ai?) would be super sexy and probably very +EV. The problem is, I think that this guy probably has a pretty wide CO PFR range, meaning relatively few of his value hands are overpairs compared to all the straights/2pairs/sets/JT/whatever other weird pair+draw. If he folds everything short of sets and straights then it's still probably +EV to c/r, but I'd prefer to have a read that he can make big folds before I tried that.
River bet is fine; definitely don't jam. I might go like $125 but that's about it. Villain should have a hard time calling a shove with just 2p on this board.