BTN is a rec player who is very passive preflop but overvalues hands like top pair postflop ((limped in AQ late position before then went crazy and overpayed it on a Q high flop postflop) . Has complained that Hero Cbets with nothing to much and hates it when people raise preflop in general.
Has berrated another player for calling his raise for 23 suited so I think he is selective with hands preflop.
Have not seen him bluff.

2 limpers, Hero makes it $20 in SB with 99, One limper calls and BTN

Flop is A53 (Pot is $60)

Hero bets $30, UTG folds, BTN calls

Turn is 8 (Pot is $120)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River is 2 (Pot is $120)
Hero checks, BTN bets $65 very fast

Based on your description of V, I think this is a pretty trivial fold.

However, there are a couple of details worth clarifying that could peak my interest some. What is V's limp/calling range pre? Is he generally letting a lot of hands go? Or is he always calling raises after an initial limp?

Also, you say you have not seen him bluff. Meaning, he hasn't shown a bluff? He hasn't been caught bluffing? Has he made any previous river stabs like this?

Just some extra thoughts going through my mind as I read the post.

But your average rec player who has passive tendencies isn't betting a missed FD here. Sans other info, it's a fold.

Now is not the time to see if he is making his first bluff. Fold.

Fold. The only hand you beat is missed diamonds and some of those hands contain a four for a straight. He has an ace, two pair or a straight way too often to pay off a half pot bet here.

Im wondering if a bet, bet x would be better here. Yes we value own ourselves vs. ace x hands but how wide will villain call flop + turn? Also flop + turn tendencies?

I think we can bet smaller OTT like 1/3-1/2 pot if we are going to bet twice and i like a smallish bet here for obvious reasons.
^Yes it is exploitable, but would villain really turn SDV hands like 43 or 77 or 5d6d into a semi-bluff here or add those hands to their raising range in this spot OTT. Prolly not (depends on his flop + turn tendencies) they would prolly want to see a cheap showdown. In addition opp. doesn't have much of a value range here to warrant a raise given he just called preflop from the button the only value hands he can have that warrant a raise are TPGK+. I think any raise he makes here will be the nuts OTT most of the time.
I think our opp. would likely just call our small bet with a weak TP/weak Ax here and then if checked to OTR value bet it he wouldn't raise it OTT (unless he puts us on squarely a FD which is a possibility because we can def have that in our range).
Also when we double barrel with a marginal hand villain will perceive double barrels to be nuts or bluff usually and generally will think we check back a lot of our marginal hands OTT.


This isn't a call, but from villain's perspective this is a good spot to bluff potentially given you x turn and river what strong hands would check back turn and then not bet on the river or even check back river in our range?

Guy goes crazy with top pair you said. Yet he checked behind turn. I put him on FD. + he knows you arent checking turn and river with an ace so it's a good spot for him to bluff. He definietly has 4s in his range on river too for value. But I'm probably calling here, but I am a POW so ignore my advice lol.

Interesting hand!

Would he ever check behind OTT with TP or a set? If no, he really is repping thin OTR and I am tempted to look him up.

I probably fold though.

I probably call and I probably lose. Calling 1/2 PSB bets with the opportunity to close the action of a hand is a big whatever as far as your longterm winrate is concerned.

His grouchiness about our cbets means there's a mentionable chance that he's teaching us a lesson here, and his range of potential worse hands is pretty wide. The fact that he went bonkers with a single pair hand for his stack earlier also tells me that this isn't some super buttoned-down, by the book OMC type, so I don't think EBF is the perfect plan against him.

You raised preflop so there are a lot of As in your perceived range therefore V will only bet river with 2 pairs or better or a busted draw. Since he checked the turn his hand could be A2 or 44 or a draw.
I am leaning to a draw since there are only a few hand combinations.
So it's down to your read as to how often V bluffs in this spot.

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How does calling 1/2psb river bets from squeezers who never bluff with like the 13th nuts affect longterm winrate? Seriously, this guy isn't the guy we want to pay off or give action to. He's probably checkng behind anything we beat.

I never said he never bluffed. I said he I had not seen him bluff - in all 3 hours we have ever played together.

He didn't squeeze pre, he limp/called. And we don't know that he never bluffs. OP just pointed out that he hadn't seen him bluff before, probably because if we had actual, verified proof that he runs bluffs, there would be no guessing game to be had, and this thread wouldn't exist.

The whole "exploit by folding, this guy never bets anything worse than what ya got" thing is an adjustment you make based on known tendencies, and it doesn't sound like we have a great feel for how villain plays. He kinda sounds weird, like I have to go back in my brain bank to Harrah's/Caesar's games from 5 years ago to be like, "Oh right, those guys who think preflop raises are destroying this country and can't wait to 'shove it up your pooper,' I remember those guys." ... and I would call here against those guys.

Anyway, it's almost certainly crystal clear to villain that our hand sucks, and he is, if anything, *overly* conscious of the fact that you raise -> cbet with air a lot, and there are a lot of hands that he knows he's not gonna win with if he checks, so if he isn't just a total corpse at the table, he really might decide to take a stab at it.

I'll also point out that his bet sizing is pretty bull****ty.

Not sure why everyone here seems to think this is an obvious fold. I think it's probably a fold, but it's certainly closer than these responses make it to be.

OP, are you sure V overrates TP, and not specifically TPTK? I wouldn't be surprised if he's the type of player to overemphasize the importance of a good kicker. However, most weak aces either made two pair or a straight, so he would certainly bet river with most of them, and I don't think he checks back many big aces, since he likely bets turn with them if he overrates a good top pair.

His line seems odd, and if he's going to bluff, this seems like a fine spot to do so, but like Venice said, it likely isn't profitable to look someone up when you haven't seen him or her showdown a bluff.

If he's super passive pre-flop, he could have 2-3 dozen flush draws on the flop. But he also has a huge amount of Ax. He might also peel flop with some 4x gut shots. Complete air is possible, of course. I mean, if he has something like 25 whiffed draw / air hands and 75 better hands, then it's a break-even call. As I quickly think about combos in my head, I'm feeling like the ratio is going to be a little worse than the 3:1 we're getting... maybe more like 5:1. Obviously there are a huge # of possible Ax. The more polarized he his on the river, the more it might tend to a call because we could exclude a lot of Ax one pair hands and his value range would begin to get more weighted towards the more unlikely 4x hands. However, this villain has shown that he'll overplay weaker hands including top pair.

Thinking it through, it's a fold. I doubt calling is a huge mistake, but I think it loses $.

With only 2 limpers to me in the SB I think I'm ok with raising preflop; any more, and especially if anyone is tricky preflop, I'm probably just seeing a flop.

I'd also cbet the flop as there is a chance our hand is best (and it is vulnerable) and worse hands (draws, non-believing pairs) can call. I'd also do a small bet (no more than 1/2 PSB).

I'd also check the turn, probably to fold against this guy.

I just noticed the river brought 4-to-a-straight. If it didn't, I probably would have bet/folded for value (I think this guy bets an A on the turn or even raises the flop with it) and he doesn't seem the bluffy type to bluffcatch against. Having said all that, I'm not sure 4-to-a-straight changes all that much, I'd probably lean towards a small bet/fold for value against a non-bluffer who thinks we are FOS. As played, kinda tempting to call once we checked since the obvious draw busted, but very difficult to do against someone we haven't seen bluff yet; tough spot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Isn't this guy betting an A on the turn? And is he ever betting an A on the river on a 4-to-a-straight board?

Ghedoesn'thaveanAce,imoG