Hey guys, I'm after a line check on the following, game is 10 handed, $2/3 blinds.
BB - ($24) - weak fish
Villain 1 - UTG - ($250) Haven't played him before. Tipsy but coherent, young guy, been pretty talkative, but is suddenly quiet as soon as the flop hits during this hand. He's been playing tight, maybe limping ~2 hands p/orbit, often folding to raises, never seen him raise or bet in the hr or so he's been at the table. It's close to closing time and he seems content to lock up his profit.
Hero - UTG+1 ($450) Generally TAG, (villain 2 knows this), but a few hands ago I doubled up after raising a 6 way limped pot on the button with K7s and hitting a flush, so image is loosened accordingly.
Villain 2 - UTG+2 ($600) Played a reasonable amount with him before. Pretty solid, thinking player, reasonably loose pre, have seen him make the occasional weird 3-bet/ 3-barrel bluff.
Villain 3 - CO ($80) Weak, passive fish
UTG limps
Hero is dealt AcKc, raises to $15
UTG+1 calls, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls
Flop: JcJh8s
Checked round
Turn: 6c
UTG bets $30
Hero calls, UTG+2 calls (Instantly, and gives me a weird look as he does so), CO calls, BB folds.
This is the first hand that I've seen V1 (UTG) take any initiative in, so naturally I'm concerned, as is V2. Should I be raising the river here? UTG played it like he had a monster IMO.
Meh, I can see an arguement for raising here. You said he only played a couple hands an orbit and would often fold to raise when he did limp. This doesn't sound like the type of player who's going to limp/call with J8, J6, or J4 UTG (although I could maybe see J8s). Still, the only hand I'm really afraid of here is 88. Also his bet sizing seems very weak. I could see him betting small on the turn to keep people in if he had a monster, but you think he would be at least half the pot or so on the river. The $35 really looks like defensive to me.
Having said all that, you have to trust your reads as well. You said you had a read that he's really strong here so I don't have a problem with trusting that and just calling either.
I think this spot is somewhat close but you can probably raise this for value. Of course if V2 behind you jams it in over your raise you can be sure you are beat and snap fold...however given his "weird look" I am not putting him on a monster hand unless he played it really tricky. In my experience this $35 bet by V1 is more of a "blocker" bet as opposed to a monster hand. Raise him $100 more and try to get looked up by a jack or smaller flush. If V1 goes all for close to $100 more, it kind of sucks but I think you have to vomit-call and hope he is overvaluing a smaller flush
He's left with $170 after his very small and weird river bet. The stack sizes are such that a raise commits you. I probably make it $100 and call if he shoves.
I think this spot is somewhat close but you can probably raise this for value. Of course if V2 behind you jams it in over your raise you can be sure you are beat and snap fold...however given his "weird look" I am not putting him on a monster hand unless he played it really tricky. In my experience this $35 bet by V1 is more of a "blocker" bet as opposed to a monster hand. Raise him $100 more and try to get looked up by a jack or smaller flush. If V1 goes all for close to $100 more, it kind of sucks but I think you have to vomit-call and hope he is overvaluing a smaller flush
Raise river please. Raise/fold too. Since you have the nut and 2nd nut flush hands in your hand, they shouldn't be 3-betting with anything less than a full house.
Thanks for the responses so far guys. Seems like the general consensus is raise river, was just put off by his suspicious bet sizing and the fact this is his first real hand at the table. Against someone I had more experience with, I'm certainly raising river. I definitely hate raising the turn.
