Villain sat down about 10mins ago, has been playing almost all his hands and is waiting for the PLO games to open new tables

An earlier hand with $300 eff stacks:
Villain limps from UTG+1, MP raises to $25, SB calls, Villain re-raises to $75, only SB calls

Flop A48
SB bets $50, Villain goes all-in, SB calls with A7, Villain shows KQ

OTTH
A bunch of people limp preflop, I ($300) raise to $25 with AK from BB only Villain calls from MP ($265)

Flop (~$60) 923

I bet $30, Villain calls

Turn (~$120) J

I bet $60, Villain calls (and has approx $150 behind)

River (~$240) 4

I go all-in

***

Need a fresh pair of eyes to evaluate this hand
What would you do differently?

I dont think the first hand is relevant. I'm not sure how a bluff flop all in is much of a signal about whether he will call down with weak pair. Unless I see evidence that people can lay down hands I think it's best to assume they're calling stations.

Basically this. Blasting off with a near zero equity bluff isnt very good here. We can continue to bet for value on a turned K or A,plus semibluffing on any club. So we have a decent amount of turncards that will give us the likely best hand or added equity. Besides that we should put on the brakes imo without very in depth reads/dynamics over time.

Are you betting your whole range on the flop for this sizing?


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I think this is a pretty optimistic spot to run a triple barrel. It's a pretty dry and static board, and a pretty clean runout for any made hands OTF. With only about 60% PSB to shove river with, I'm not even sure how much 9x we're going to get folds from. I think on this board texture with effective stacks what they are, I'd just give up. I'm not one of those nits that always think people's 3 barrels are bad either, I just don't like it in this spot.

I'd just check the flop and try to show AK down, like he probably doesn't have a 2 or 3 and from the sample hand it doesn't seem like he's going to fold if he has a 9, so I don't see what the utility of betting is.

I thought the first hand described was the background to demonstrate the dude was an aggro fish. Why are we triple barrel bluffing him?


KQo is a poor 3betting hand vs UTG, he observes a cold caller from SB, and after facing a donk lead (fish may do this for a multitude of reasons granted) he jams all in with no equity.


just make made hands vs this guy and value bet the **** out of them.


Yes 2nd HH is a board AA,KK can get three streets from but wrong time wrong place i think for bluff.

I like the flop bet. We can get better to fold (e.g. small pairs) and deny equity to other hands that won't put in any more money unless they hit. I doubt we're getting to SD OOP against the guy that ran a L/RR, X/ship bluff.

I'd continue the turn on a club, but probably check an A or K for pot control. That said, I don't hate continuing when the J hits.

I think the river bet is probably -EV. He has to fold only 38% to be break even, but the river didn't put anything new out there, so we either have JJ+ or we don't and he appears to think we don't from the two previous calls.


Make a note to never bluff the SB from the earlier hand.

You're contradicting yourself in the space of two sentences here. If non-pair hands aren't putting in any more money unless they hit, then we're getting to showdown whenever we have the best hand. You can't have it both ways.

Edit: For the recond I'm very much intending to sometimes call bets enroute to showdown here, that's the point of checking.

Like fundamentally what we have here is a guy whose mistakes appear to be being too loose and too aggressive and running bets with this hand is trying to out-aggress him with what is probably the best hand. It's totally playing into his hands in that if he is too loose and/or aggressive against you in this hand, he's going to win, that's the correct thing to do against your lines.

This sounds like a game where I wouldn’t be bluffing very often.

I'm fine with raising large preflop to setup postflop commitment with TP (might even raise larger to 10% of my stack, especially after a bunch of limpers). Unlike others, I also think just seeing a flop here and playing a high SPR pot with our drawing properties is also fine.

I'm also likely cbetting this flop although I'm not so sure how successful it is going to be. Board is bone dry, I see no reason to go more than 1/3 PSB. We could also just check/fold and move on.

Not in love with the barrel plan. Villain is facing a committing bet, the turn ain't that scary, we've gained no equity, he has no reason to raise monsters, and there ain't really no draws he could be chasing.

Ditto for the river. A lot of times we're simply jamming into the nuts here.

Gwedon'thavetowineveryhandweraise,imoG