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/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? /3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown?

01-16-2014 , 12:14 PM
Hero - Mid 30s, TAG, tighter than the average player at this table, which plays very loose. A raise to $25 will commonly get 5 callers. Most of the players at the table know I play every day at 2/2/3, but none have ever played with me, nor I them.

Villain 1 (BB) Black guy about 40. Based on about 2 hours of playing with him, he's loose preflop, but not moreso than most of the table. More solid post flop.

Villain 2 (Button). LAG, and a prop player. Has no problem firing three barrels with second pair.

Hand as played, seven handed:

MP ($400) limps for 5
Villain 2 on Button ($1600) calls
Hero ($1000) calls from SB with 22
Villain 1 ($1400) checks from BB.

Flop ($20): 259

Action checks to Button, who bets 15.
Hero calls.
BB raises to 75.
MP folds.
Button calls 75.
Hero raises to 300.
BB thinks for 5 seconds and goes all in.
Button instafolds.
Hero?

The three classifications I can put him on here are Overpair, Flush draw, and set.
  • I would have expected an overpair to 1) raise preflop from the BB rather than see a flop with 4 players, or barring that, to 2) lead out on what is a great flop for such a hand, and not give the flush draw a free card.
  • I would have expected a flush draw to 1) lead the flop 2) just flat the 15, 3) if he did CR the 15, fold to the 300 bet or 4) flat the 300 and put me to the test on the turn, even though I think that's pretty bad play.
I really read 55, or the less likely 99, and found a fold. He checked PF, CR the flop, and shipped to my reraise. Put me in his position with my 22 and I'm going to do the exact same thing he did. In almost all cases, I'm going to happily get it in with any set on a flop as uncoordinated as this, but there was so much information, and his play seemed to me to be screaming power. This is the first time I've ever laid down a set on the flop where there wasn't a made straight or flush out there, and I can't tell if it was a Hero Fold or just a terribly weak laydown.

Any opinions would be much appreciated. This one is really messing with my head.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:29 PM
What is 2/2/3? Is that the stakes?
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:29 PM
Interesting. I'm not folding here unless BB is an extreme nit. BB could have any random two pair hands, SD/FD, Axs, (95,52,29, 34s, 67s, A5s, Axs) and we are only losing to one hand really, 55. If he is "loose" preflop there is no way he has 99. Thats too many hands that were beating. If he has a set, then nh.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:32 PM
Terrible fold. I don't care if he has a higher set, this is a terrible fold long term. First off, it's safe to assume he never has TT+. But this is a very draw heavy board. Also he is the bb in a limped pot so he could have any two cards. His most likely hand is 95 though he could have any two pairs. Also he could have 5xss or another big draw
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upgrayyed
Interesting. I'm not folding here unless BB is an extreme nit. BB could have any random two pair hands, SD/FD, Axs, (95,52,29, 34s, 67s, A5s, Axs) and we are only losing to one hand really, 55. If he is "loose" preflop there is no way he has 99. Thats too many hands that were beating. If he has a set, then nh.
People limp in all the time with 99 so I wouldn't discount those. Unless in up against the nittiest of nits I still wouldn't fold here against a nit. Also note that hero is getting about 2:1 to call a shove. He only has to win 33% of the time or so
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:37 PM
Hero misplayed this hand badly. First off, either lead big and bet three streets big. Or CR flop and lead turn lead river. Check calling is terrible here. Also your reraise sizing is too big. I'd make it $260 or so. You actually want draws to call you but you also have to price them out at the same time
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 12:38 PM
Lead the flop.

AP, call. 6 combs we're behind. Multiple combos we're ahead. All of which could easily take this line. Even if we discount the part of his range that we are ahead of, it's still a call given the massive # of hands he could have here.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 01:31 PM
Never folding this for 200bb on wet board with multiple combo draws and possibility of V having top two pair
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 01:39 PM
Really tough to fold a set on this board. V can certainly have a set here but I think when he limps pre he can also have some flush and straight draw combos which he will play aggro. I wouldn't fold...
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 01:48 PM
awful awful awful fold. He is the BB and can easily have all the weird two pairs. There are 32 combos of two pair he can have and only 6 combos of sets (half of which he is likely raising pre). Add in 8 combos of SD+FD and 10 combos of 5sXs, now there are 50 combos you are ahead of vs 6 you are behind. It's just the worst fold.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 03:56 PM
lead 70% pot

or c/r 70% pot


then snap call his shove as played

wtf, why did u fold

95 and a ton of flush draws are in his range
more often than 99 or 55
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 06:14 PM
Lead the flop for sure, only reason I'd check would be to c/r (which you didn't).

As you played it, I'd just flat the $75 raise and get it in on the turn. Keeps both of their ranges much wider and disguises your hand rather than turning a monster face up with a huge raise.

When you flat, then make it $300, your hand looks so ridiculously nutted that you're over-repped to anyone reading hands. What you do comes down to whether BB understands this or not, basically whether he realizes 2p is crushed 90+% here or that he has no FE with combo draws. If he has a clue, he has only 55 and some 99 when he jams.

Major point of the hand is not to raise to $300 if you're not calling a shove.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 10:10 PM
Why did you take this line OTF?
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 10:31 PM
terribad fold after raising $300 and putting 1/3 of your stack in. i've just asked kinda similar question in low stress strat questions. if monotone flop i may fold to bottom set. but not on this flop.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 10:37 PM
I didn't lead the flop or raise the 15 bet because I'm willing to sweat a turn to give the button rope to hang himself. I'm confident he's going to fire at the turn regardless, and that's when I planned to make my move. I didn't plan on BB coming over the top, and when he did (and button called), it became time to take the pot down right there.

My line was so strong, combined with my tighter-than-table image, that I just couldn't put him on any sort of draw. I'm very certain that this guy would have bet with a combo draw. In the three hours I was sitting there, I never once saw him CR, but he led out quite a bit - he even check called the flop and lead on a dry turn a couple of times.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 10:53 PM
Results?? Did he show?
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 11:22 PM
bad fold, snap call all day he has 95o
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-16-2014 , 11:36 PM
grunch: butchered this hand. Stright butchered.

Bet out yourself on the flop.

Raise once you've gotten lucky and someone has bet for you.


Now who the hell knows what to do. Your opponents are likely just as confused as you are. I guess he could do this with a wider range just because your line makes no sense so get it in there I suppose.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote
01-17-2014 , 04:37 AM
This was a hero fold.

In the way that kamikaze pilots were heroic.
/3/5 NL- Folded to a 4 bet AI on the flop with bottom set.  Hero Fold or weak laydown? Quote

      
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