Villain is an elderly asian lady that has been talking a lot. I've been playing with her for 20 minutes before this hand takes place. She seems to exhibit a reverse tell in acting weak when strong and acting strong when weak. In one previous hand where she turns a straight that eventually goes to showdown she bets the turn and while another player is contemplating calling she says, "Please don't raise, please just call, please please please." The player calls, she bets on the river, gets snap called, and then shows a straight. She has a winning image when this hand happens

Hero has not been getting out of line and has not gone to showdown much. I am playing a TAG style raising in position and taking pots down quietly.

Live Full Ring Cash Game
Oaks Card Club
$2/$3/$5 NL

Stacks:
Villain is SB with $690
Hero is CO with $660

Pre-Flop: ($10) Hero is CO with Q♠ T♥
UTG limps $5, MP limps $5, Hero raises to $30, SB calls $30, everyone else folds and it's HU going to the flop

Flop: T♦ 5♦ 5♣ ($77, 2 players)
SB open shoves for $630, Hero ???????

I tank for 3 minute trying to figure out if I can make this call. I'm thinking what hands could she possibly be doing this with. She is saying, "If you call, you win!" confidently. I ask her, "Why do you want me to call?" and she doesn't respond. In the 3 minutes of tanking she then tries to order a cocktail and then faces away from the table when I am trying to get read on her. I verbalize my thought process out loud saying, "I don't think you have JJ -AA because you would have probably 3b me pre, its possible you have a flush draw here." She then begins to look uneasy as the 3 minute progress. But to me it was a crazy spot because she is first to act HU and goes all-in for $630 into a pot of $77. I mean I'm ahead of most tens except for KT and AT, I don't think she'd play a premium pocket pair like this, and how can a 5 be in her range. The hand screams flush draw but am just wondering what your thoughts are.

So do you call or fold?

From the hand with the straight you at least know she's remotely thinking/competent.

Just fold man.

If you call you win=fold big time.

Could disect further but this is not a call vs her range. You'd have to have an ultra read to ever consider this one. She's bad, but not bad enough to call here.

Even if her range is depolarized, this is AT at worst imo.

Snap fold,in the best case she has 40-45 percent,in the worst case you are drawing dead,almost every time I see this,it's a mediocre over pair(so JJ or QQ).

Fold.

She most likely has a big overpair here. She is shoving because she is afraid of the possible flush draw, overcards. Queens.

Rec. players have blow ups all the time especially when facing constant aggression, even if she had FD I don't think this is a profitable spot to call off $600+ with just top pair, let her have it and just continue with your plan by chipping up slowly but surely.
It's not about that one big pot or that one big bluff is about those mid size pots that shows long term profit.

Fold.

Here you go .. sometimes you just gotta let um go.

If you want to switch into 'gambler' mode from 'poker' mode, then that's okay too but just make sure your head is ready for any result. GL

Fold, although calling is so tempting, so I get why you tanked.

world's easiest fold

as others have said, I agree this move is often QQ,JJ, while 5x is certainly possible, you have a high variance +ev call against a range of flush draws, but especially given the tell, it's a fold.

But what about the fact that she's giving reverse tells though? She acts strong when weak and acts weak when strong.

It's a huge gamble, but if your tell is that great, go for it. The problem is, she could have overs or other draws that can easily catch up. Granted, it's good to get it in ahead, but not sure you are enough ahead (if at all).

You are at the table -- if you think you should call, by all means call.

I am getting 630:707 so would need 47.1% equity for this call to be +EV

The tell to focus on here isn't: "she said something weak there and was strong, so that means since we said something strong here, she's weak."

The tell to focus on is: "if she's blabbing a lot during the hand, she's strong."

This sort of "strong = weak" thing can't be relied on unless we see it three or four times. This is the second time, yeah? How do we know whether the tell she gave off in the previous hand is "strong = weak" or "speech = nuts"? We don't. So the tell is worthless imo.

Here's a tell for you: players who make ludicrous over bets like this are usually bad players who don't know how to play their hands. If we sit down and see someone make a play like this, there is a 90% chance they are an abc who doesn't know how to play ann overpair/set, 9% they are a maniac who does this all the time, 0.9% bad LAG trying to do something smart, 0.1% good LAG actually doing something smart.

Here's another tell for you: bad players tend to bet the strength of their hands.

Here's another: most bad players don't have the guts to stick a ton of money in without the goods. The exception to this rule is the maniac, but we should know within two orbits of she's a maniac.

Hopefully she shows and we get a better read on which on it is.

By the way, Ax flush draw has about 50% equity against us. 5x, TT, and JJ/QQ have like 98% equity against us.

If you go around the world and encounter this situation 1000 times and call every time, expect to lose about $580,000.00.

This is the most obvious fold in the world and it's almost tilting that the OP may have called and gotten that 1/30 times he's right so he's posting it.

I'm wondering what we would do with 56s, AA (without ), AA (with ) KK, QQ, and JJ here. Those hands are actually pretty interesting to think about.

She has a lot more 5's than you think. If she had a flush draw, why would she risk so much to win so little? There are diminishing returns for the amount she's risking vs. the amount she's looking to steal.

Basically her line of thinking is this ... you have an overpair and won't be able to fold it to her shove. The fact that she's talking simply reinforces the fact that she's strong.

spot on post ... I'm basically folding out everything except A5+.

When she kept on blabbing I then tried to engage her by asking, "Why do you want me to call?" And then I verabalized my thought process. At that point she stopped talking and then turned her back to the table and tried to order a cocktail. Her back was to the table for the remaining 1 minute. It felt like a legitimate tell that she was worried.

What cocktail?

Now we're getting to the heart of the question!

Don't feed the troll.

^the troll who actually gave you the best answer itt

Snap fold.

You'll find out soon enough if V is spazz shoving light (I'm guessing that she isn't).

Snap fold AINEC. You need 47% equity to call here. Give her a range of T9+, FDs with 2 overs, a couple combos of 5x and a couple combos of JJ/QQ and your equity is going to be sub-40%.

If you throw in a bunch of Ace and King high flush draws it's closer to 50/50.