Hero tag 26 asian $1.5k
Villian middle aged euro white tilting $660
Villian has been losing a ton of hands and is probably in the tilt zone now. Hes capable of making bluffs
Heros image is tight probably nit.

7 handed 2-3-5 deepstack
Random with $2000 stack raises 15 utg1
Villian calls co 15
Hero calls with AJcc btn
Sb calls
Bb calls


Flop $70
Q T 9 rainbow
Pfr cbets $25
V calls
Hero calls
Sb calls and bb folds

Turn $170
Q T 9 A rainbow
Sb checks
Pfr checks
Villian checks
Hero bets $120
Sb folds
Pfr folds
Villian shoves $620 total ($500 more)


$500 to win $910 and hero?

I'm new to posting so take this for what it's worth. Based on description of V this is a call. He could show up with a hand here but his line makes little sense. I would expect him to bet out 2 pair ott and raise a set otf or certainly bet it ott also. He could be slow playing K-J but that takes a lot of restraint on V's part and why would he expect you to bet if you have been playing nitty. Plus I would expect a smaller raise from a straight. I would expect V to have a bare J here often, or JQ/J10/J9. I guess you could check the turn but I like the turn bet. This looks a lot like a tilt jam to me. And if he is thinking he may expect you to fold many hands if your image is nitty.

Unless villain has been very aggressive, I'm folding to the over shove the first time he does this. A lot depends on what sort of tilt villain is on. Some villains get sticky and trappy and will turn up with a lot of badly played two pair and set hands, particularly AT/A9. Others get maniac with draws and will have a lot of pair+draw hands. Some start thinking everybody else is FOS whenever they bet and might have anything here. Without some read on how he is playing, the over shove is enough to get me to fold.

Fold. Find a better spot. Almost always 2 pair here

Against a range of straights, sets, pair+oesds, and turned 2-pairs its a call:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

3,872 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQT9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcJc	42.36%	1,319	642
AJ, AQ, AT, A9, J9, JT, JQ, KJ, J8, JJ, AA, QQ, TT, 99	57.64%	1,911	642

In reality it's probably not that close. Sets are either raising the flop, or betting the turn once PFR checks to him. Straights are missing a ton of value by check/bombing the turn like that, especially against a player that has a fold button... So removing 2 of the 4 sets and 1 of the 2 straights:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

3,168 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQT9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcJc	49.43%	1,287	558
AJ, AQ, AT, A9, J9, JT, JQ, KJ, JJ, TT, 99	50.57%	1,323	558

It basically boils down to this: as long as weaker pair+oesd hands are in his range, you really can't fold.

I can't see him calling the flop with QJ, JT, T9 types hands, and then check/raising all in on the turn when the board gets more scary. A good number of hands just turned two pair and people don't like to fold two pair!

I think it's more likely that he either had a good hand, or his hand just got better and now he wants to get value from worse but still very good hands. I think I find a fold here.

Against the range you described, clearly a fold:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,288 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQT9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcJc	15.95%	296	138
AA, QQ, TT, 99, KJ, J8, AQ, AT, A9	84.05%	1,854	138

But... Adding in just 1 weaker pair+oesd hand (QJ for example) creates a HUGE swing in equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,684 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AQT9

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcJc	26.34%	602	210
AA, QQ, TT, 99, KJ, J8, AQ, AT, A9, JQ	73.66%	1,872	210

There is no chance I'm folding this to a losing/capable of bluffing/possibly tilting villain.

I agree with a fold here. He could be tilt spewing, yet I think paying this off OTT with one pair is a mistake in the long run. That flop could have lots of slow played 2 pair, sets, flopped straights. And the magic Ace OTT not only didn't scare Villain, but let him come alive with a check raise all in. This all leads me to believe AJ is losing most often here.

Fold.

Does anyone like checking turn?

I think a check is a pretty good idea - marginal hand on a dangerous flop / turn, multiway. I'd imagine most players playing this straightforwardly.

Fold, I'm probably betting the turn, our draw is super visible

Any history between you and villain that session? Did you own him in any pots or vice versa?

This spot really feels like a soul read spot to be honest and its hard to critique.

Either he's bluffing or he has you beat and the board is crap but villain is tilting. It's like a see saw back and forth in this hand.

If we look at the straight math, getting 1.82:1 on a call, we need villain to be bluffing/tilting 35%-ish of the time.

If we then factor in our draws (we have 4 outs for the nut chop and 8 outs to beat sets --though I don't think he has many sets in his range) then that gives us roughly 16% equity by way of the draw...

IF V has two pair then we have 16 outs to either beat him or counterfeit him so that gives us roughly (pokerstove) 36% equity by way of draw vs his two pair (I think 2 pair hands are more likely his range "if" he is not bluffing).

just from the standpoint of V having 2p we have the equity required to profitably call him (though its pretty much 0EV)....

Adding everything up. If sets and straights are 25% of V's range and 50% of V's range is 2 pair and 25% of his range is tilting airballs then mathematically we can justify a call here. Basically, the tilt balances out the sets and straights and we have the equity to call against 2 pair hands.

Granted, that is a bit of mental gymnastics but mathematically it works out. Obviously, if you weight sets and straights higher and tilting airballs lower than that might not be the case. But overall, based on the OP and the pot size and direct odds we are getting, I think you can justify a call even if you slide percentages around a bit more against hero's favor.

So yeah, we can call here.

Calling here is really hopeful imo

Bet $90 ott. As played fold(not a spot V would bluff with Jx imo)

We are getting 1.82:1 on a call meaning we need 35%-ish equity.

If V has two pair we have 36% equity so on that basis alone we can justify a call.

If V is tilting/bluffing (which was mentioned in the OP) 35% of the time here then we can profitably call.

Merge the two conditions above, and mathematically, you can make the case that we can call here.

I admit, this is not a fist-pump-kung-fu kick snap call by any stretch. It's pretty damn thin. very thin. But, if you incorporate all the information, you can make the case for calling here.

Not to say folding is terribad by any stretch. Like I said, its pretty thin. But there is enough here that we can justify a call if we are so inclined.

It really comes down to the tilt factor imo. I mean, if this guy is a volcano of tilt and has just been getting owned all day at the table then we can call here. Not to use the "live tells" as a crutch. But in a spot like this, it really does come down to how tilty we think this villain is. And if he has it in him to bluff shove here 35% of the time for "whatever" reason then we can justify a call here.

Or put another way, what is wrong with my above logic?

It's not that your logic is bad it's that it's so close to break even I'd prefer a fold. I'd just have to be there to say whether or not he's tilting enough to justify a call and I didn't see enough in the op to really say call it off.