Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-29-2014, 10:14 AM   #1
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Hero tag mid 20s asian $2000
Villian tag mid 20s white $590
Villian has been playing extremely tight all night. No big bluffs. Weve avoided each other all night. Hes nitting it up trying to stack the fish and frankly so am i.

Straddle $10
Folds to hero on co who raises 2c2d to $30
Villian calls sb
Straddle calls

Flop $90
Q 5 3 ddd
Checks to hero who cbets $60
Villian calls $60
Straddle folds

Turn $210
Q 5 3 2 ddds

Best turn ever.
Checks to hero, who bets $150
Villian sighs then raises to $350 total and has $150 behind


I think Villian is never bluffing here. All his value hands beat me because he never has the weird two pair here its a flush or 64/A4 straight. I cant think if any value hands he would raise the turn with that he wouldnt have raised the flop with that I am ahead of, EXCEPT Ad2h which there's only 1 combo of, and I'm not even sure he would raise it in the first place

If thats the case, I can still treat my hand as a fh draw:
Its $200 more to win $710 + $150(implied) = $860
So im getting slightly better than 4:1 to draw to my full house, meaning i can just flat the turn raise and call the river when the board pairs and expect +$60 in ev.

But can i really just call and fold for $150 more if the turn bricks??

Obv i could just shove the turn, (which would actually be my standard play if there existed some hands I was still ahead of) but if i think he always has a better hand and is never bluffing, than that would be bad. I cant think of any hand combos I am ahead of when he raises turn, otherwise I would gladly shove.
Thoughts?

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-29-2014 at 10:31 AM.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 10:24 AM   #2
dunderstron!
adept
 
dunderstron!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Posts: 842
Honestly it looks like you have it all figured out. Next time you might wanna just post the barebones facts, and let us have a shot at it.

Does he ever have a set here or does he play those more carefully? (From your descrip it sounds like he wouldn't reraise that with a monotone flop.) Is there any chance he folds when the river pairs? (It looks like he's never folding.) Those are the only questions I can think of.
dunderstron! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 10:33 AM   #3
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

No i dont think hes ever folding river hes committed, which is why the $150 implied is nearly guaranteed.

Im asking because it just feels so gross to merely call the turn and then fold when he jams the remaining $150 on a brick river.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 10:49 AM   #4
Headie1
grinder
 
Headie1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Bellagio
Posts: 494
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Hate this hand. IF you're going to R 22 into the straddle(who in my experience almost always calls a reasonable bet) make it $40+. We don't want to play 2's against more than one caller.

Flop c-bet is horrible imo. you have 2 callers and likely at least one will continue on this wet board.

Turn card completes straight. V can have Ad4x here, made hands like bigger sets or flush. You said V was playing tight all night so seriously what hands is he continuing with here that we beat?
Headie1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:01 AM   #5
1968
veteran
 
1968's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3,218
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

PF I like the raise but would raise more like $35-$40. what is your read on the straddle/blinds? are they defending wide?

Your analysis looks good, if you have him pegged as a nit then there are no 2p hands in his range. I would call turn to fill up and I think you can fold river to an AI un-improved.
1968 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:02 AM   #6
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Disagree:
$30 pre is fine, its 3x the straddle in an unlimped pot
Flop cbet is fine since we likely have the best hand and it needs protection, plus we have the 2d which helps, in case he has say Qx no diamond.

Agree:
We are behind when he raises. I'm well aware of this. But mathematically we are getting a good price to call and try to improve to a boat. So do we call and make the sick fold when river bricks? Or do we close our eyes and shove even though we're ahead of nothing but cant stand the thought of folding for $150 more getting like 7:1 on a brick river?

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-29-2014 at 11:17 AM.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:04 AM   #7
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1968 View Post
PF I like the raise but would raise more like $35-$40. what is your read on the straddle/blinds? are they defending wide?

Your analysis looks good, if you have him pegged as a nit then there are no 2p hands in his range. I would call turn to fill up and I think you can fold river to an AI un-improved.

Straddler was a fish likely to defend wide, blinds (villian and bb) were playing very tight and likely to fold.

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-29-2014 at 11:10 AM.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:36 AM   #8
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah
 
Gilmour's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

I want to just fold the turn here, simple as it seems.

We just dont have to win every hand and fall in love with every pot.

The implied odds offered when he raise the turn to 350 and only 150 more behind for us to win if the board does pair is not close to enough for me. I want him to have at least double that behind for me to consider calling his turn raise.
Gilmour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:43 AM   #9
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilmour View Post
I want to just fold the turn here, simple as it seems.

We just dont have to win every hand and fall in love with every pot.

The implied odds offered when he raise the turn to 350 and only 150 more behind for us to win if the board does pair is not close to enough for me. I want him to have at least double that behind for me to consider calling his turn raise.
Huh?

Thats like saying you dont like money. $200 to win $860, and you arent going to at least call and try to boat up? All you need is for the current pot + implied odds to be >= $800 for calling to be +ev.

Not sure where you are getting this idea that he needs twice as much behind.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 11:50 AM   #10
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah
 
Gilmour's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Huh?

Thats like saying you dont like money. $200 to win $860, and you arent going to at least call and try to boat up? All you need is for the current pot + implied odds to be >= $800 for calling to be +ev.

Not sure where you are getting this idea that he needs twice as much behind.

Thats correct, i just think we can fold here without feeling bad about it.

I wasnt talking about a special number that he has to have excatly twice as much behind. My opinion its just that this spot is OK to pass up, i want to have better implied odds in this sort of situation- to have the possibility of much more money going in on the river if we boat up= to possibly win a much bigger pot when i do get lucky. The spot and +EV value here is pretty marginal, and i certainly mean that its ok to pass up those sometimes.

Personally i like a low variance style of play as much as possible for a number of reasons, and to pass up on marginal spots sometimes is a part of that approach.
Gilmour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 12:50 PM   #11
wck117
adept
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 779
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

I don't see what the question is. You're clearly never good in your opinion, so no you wouldn't call 150 on a brick river. You're getting the odds to chase a fh so go ahead and call.
wck117 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 04:52 PM   #12
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

I guess i made this post because i ended up Taaaanking, doing all the math in my head, calling, river bricked, he jammed and i folded. He showed me AdQx brutal...


Made me think maybe my analysis is just wrong and i should have jammed cuz i haz set

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-29-2014 at 05:09 PM.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 05:39 PM   #13
dom80e
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 344
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

I think you should just ship turn. You are likely behind (except for the 3 combos of AdQx), but can't fold river.

If he has a set, then you have flush redraw.
If he has flush, then you have FH draw.
The problem is, you don't know what you need. Getting in on turn protects your equity.

You have 35% against his range. Just treat his bet as if he was going all in himself for 500 total. If it is +ev, then you can ship.
dom80e is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 06:30 PM   #14
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Quote:
Originally Posted by dom80e View Post
I think you should just ship turn. You are likely behind (except for the 3 combos of AdQx), but can't fold river.

If he has a set, then you have flush redraw.
If he has flush, then you have FH draw.
The problem is, you don't know what you need. Getting in on turn protects your equity.

You have 35% against his range. Just treat his bet as if he was going all in himself for 500 total. If it is +ev, then you can ship.
You actually made a great point regarding how my 2d gives me extra equity vs some of his straights that dont contain a diamond, which adds equity and makes it more of a shove.

But then again its hard to imagine he would call flop with somebody behind to act on a monotone board with an oesd without a diamond.
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 08:07 PM   #15
NeverScurred
veteran
 
NeverScurred's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: front yard broad day with the SK
Posts: 2,495
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Flop cbet is fine since we likely have the best hand and it needs protection, plus we have the 2d which helps, in case he has say Qx no diamond.
Board: Qd 5d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.123% 29.43% 00.69% 284444934 6663000.00 { 2d2s }
Hand 1: 34.938% 33.97% 00.97% 328252152 9384666.00 { random }
Hand 2: 34.938% 33.97% 00.97% 328252152 9384666.00 { random }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.294% 29.81% 00.49% 21819817 357010.08 { 2d2s }
Hand 1: 34.853% 33.90% 00.95% 24815493 698859.96 { 25% }
Hand 2: 34.853% 33.90% 00.95% 24815493 698859.96 { 25% }

As I doubt you have a ton of FE on this board either, I don't really like the flop bet. The rest of your analysis seems good to me.
NeverScurred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 09:11 PM   #16
dunderstron!
adept
 
dunderstron!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Santa Fe, NM
Posts: 842
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I guess i made this post because i ended up Taaaanking, doing all the math in my head, calling, river bricked, he jammed and i folded. He showed me AdQx brutal...


Made me think maybe my analysis is just wrong and i should have jammed cuz i haz set
That is brutal. Right analysis, wrong read, but I like that you went with it. Going with our reads is how we improve them imo.

I do wonder if there's a "what if he's doing something weird" fudge factor. Actually there definitely is; if he had bet $5 on the river we are calling despite our read. I wonder where the tipping point in his bet size would be...
dunderstron! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 09:12 PM   #17
SemiProFishent
newbie
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 31
I think the only thing that need talked about in this hand is the flop C-bet. Heads up I might c-bet about 30% of the time on this board. Against 2 players close to 0 unless they are talking to someone behind them with cards in the much position. You are lighting money on fire drawing to 2 outs. Check behind on flop and this hand gets A LOT easier to play.
SemiProFishent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 05:25 PM   #18
HappyLuckBox
old hand
 
HappyLuckBox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,488
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

I didnt even realize until now but with AQ he picks up a gutshot to the wheel on the turn. If i had thought about that more carefully and realized there's more AQ in his range than previously assigned its definitely a shove.

I think i was just super tired that night, clouding my decision making. In retrospect all he needs is 1 spazz combo and any AdQx in his turn raise range to make jamming turn +ev
HappyLuckBox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 07:59 PM   #19
Shwauby
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 284
Re: 2-3-5 bottom set vs nutted range

so you have a pretty solid idea of what V has, why dont we check turn? when you bet what are you trying to get value from? Qx. if he is playing super tight what Qx hands does he have? if he is playing super tight he shouldnt have 64 or A4 here it only a flush.
Shwauby is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:28 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive