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2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways 2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways

08-11-2017 , 01:01 AM
Hi everyone, I'm pretty sure I played this terribly but want to know what I could have done differently.

Hero UTG with AQo (~$400)
Raise to $15
UTG +1 calls (~$150)
UTG +2 calls (tilted and spewing chips ~$180)

+ 4 more callers

Also want to note that Hijack has me covered ~$450 and also calls.

Flop is 89qr

I didn't really think this through fully, but I saw the short stacker and I wanted to kind of isolate him.

So I went all in and as I was saying that I tried to take it back once I saw that hijack had me way covered, but luckily he wasn't involved in the pot.

Anyway, UTG+1 insta-calls, and UTG + 2 says "Oh since you didn't mean to say all in I am going to call you"

and it folds around.

I don't know if betting into so many players was bad, or I should have waited for the short stacker to make a move before I did. Either way short stacker shows JTo for the flopped straight and UTG + 2 makes two pair on turn and I am busto.

I also wanted to add that I was raising this size previously and getting 1-2 callers, but I think because the tilted guy was calling more often is why this flop went so multiway. But after this hand I knew I had to raise larger PF.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 02:26 AM
In a family pot, I'm likely just checking this flop, trying to get to a really cheap showdown. Our shove only guarantees we're called by better, & with so many players that'll happen at a frequency WAY, WAY higher than what's break even for the amount we scoop by shoving. I mean, you basically turned your hand into a bluff, risking way too much for so little in the process. This is spew & I trust you won't spew this bad in the future.

Also... if someone's leak is spewing like UTG+2, you need to check to them to allow them to spew.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
In a family pot, I'm likely just checking this flop, trying to get to a really cheap showdown. Our shove only guarantees we're called by better, & with so many players that'll happen at a frequency WAY, WAY higher than what's break even for the amount we scoop by shoving. I mean, you basically turned your hand into a bluff, risking way too much for so little in the process. This is spew & I trust you won't spew this bad in the future.

Also... if someone's leak is spewing like UTG+2, you need to check to them to allow them to spew.
Yes I've heard the same advice from another hand when you get so multiway with 1 pair. The only defense against this is to raise larger right?

Also So suppose I check and the same action happens. I am basically always calling right?

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2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 03:48 AM
Yeah your hand is nowhere near as good as it looks here, you are completely dead to some very commonly flatted hands (JT, 88, 99), Q8/Q9/89 are all possible, and there are a lot of hands which have really good equity against you (for instance hands like T9 have 9 outs twice, which without pulling out equilab is going to be something like 35% against you).

I'd probably check and see what develops, that enables me to get out without loss if there's a bet and raise. I think b/f like 50 is fine too, but jamming is suicide.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hamhamt
Yes I've heard the same advice from another hand when you get so multiway with 1 pair. The only defense against this is to raise larger right?

Also So suppose I check and the same action happens. I am basically always calling right?
You should raise larger if there are often this many callers, yeah, but it's also not like having to check the flop is a disaster.

If you check and that action happens, it's a clear call but not fist pumping, you'll be beaten a surprising amount but not enough to justify folding.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 03:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Yeah your hand is nowhere near as good as it looks here, you are completely dead to some very commonly flatted hands (JT, 88, 99)
I mean I guess you're always dead to sets when you have TPTK so that's probably not very relevant. JT is a big concern though, if dealt the hand these guys are basically a lock to have played it as a flat preflop, and there are a lot of combos of it, 16 of them as compared to 6 combos of 88 and 99 combined. So basically take the amount you're normally worried that someone has flopped a set 7 ways and multiply that by 4.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 04:04 AM
I did some quick maths and if all your opponents are flatting pre with the top 40% range from equilab, the chance one of them has JT, 88 or 99 is roughly 22%. So it's definitely something to be concerned about.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 07:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I did some quick maths and if all your opponents are flatting pre with the top 40% range from equilab, the chance one of them has JT, 88 or 99 is roughly 22%. So it's definitely something to be concerned about.
Wow that's a really interesting statistic. Never thought to use the program like that.

Also thanks a lot for your other analysis it is really helpful.

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2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I did some quick maths and if all your opponents are flatting pre with the top 40% range from equilab, the chance one of them has JT, 88 or 99 is roughly 22%. So it's definitely something to be concerned about.
Is there a function in equilab where you can input a % range and it outputs % chance of holding JT (or whatever you select)? Or you literally counted combos looking at the total range?
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:35 AM
Yeah I just counted combos. Took a minute or two. Theres a checkbox in equilab to show combo count but it just shows it for each individual hand so its not super useful.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 09:38 AM
Ah. Man that would have been a nifty function lol.

iirc flopzilla had some functionality like what we're talking about
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 10:39 AM
Yeah thats my #1 most wanted function in a poker calculator. #2 is telling me given the ranges for all players, what is the %chance each player is ahead right now. By which I mean who would have the best 5 card hand if the hand ended right there.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 11:17 AM
Interestingly, i want something that helps me think about what turn cards do what.

Like range vs. range, 20% of turn cards give villain 30% more equity.

Im not wording it right but plo has helped me think about it much more and i think its how tom dwan played his hands on high stakes poker. He took alot of peculiar checks but they make sense to me when i think about what different turns do to each players range.

Its really hard to think about in game beyond "no spade, no spade, no spade" lol
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote
08-11-2017 , 12:50 PM
Flopzilla seems like it'll give you what you want, Av.
2/3 2 SPR pot with top pair, 7 ways Quote

      
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