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2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line 2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line

05-14-2016 , 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cassurai
Secondly, what do you mean "I might as well have called with any two cards"? Shouldn't we rather call with KJ here and squeeze with any two, rather than the other way round? I would actually argue for squeezing here with 75s than KJo here, because 75s fares better against a 3bet calling range. Squeezing KJo here is just going to get hands we dominate to fold pre and hands that do well against us to call, whereas with 75s you likely have live cards even if they call your squeeze.
I know you want to talk about the inconsequential decision in this one particular hand, but your game would be much improved by focusing on the situations that are likely to arise quite frequently, like your preflop decision in this hand.

You have your thought process backwards here. You want to squeeze/bluff with hands in the top of your folding range, of which KJo belongs to. It has the benefits of blocking KK and JJ (and to a lesser extent AK), and the high card nature allows you to still hit top pair hands.

Your range is also uncapped so you will win plenty of flops where neither you nor your opponent flops a pair, but your opponent check/folds hands like AQ to your c-bet. That would not be possible if you just called pre, you would be the one folding to the PFR's c-bet. Further, by 3! pre, you are shrinking the size of the SPR from an awful 16x to something in the 5-8x range which allows you to stack off profitably with one pair on boards with straight draws and flush draws if a villain plays them too aggressively.

Conversely, a hand like 75s is squarely in the bottom of your calling range and does not make a suitable candidate for 3! bluffing. SC's and SG+1's benefit from stack depth and large SPR's: you are trying to see flops cheaply, connect and hit your draws, and then stack an opponent that can't get away from one pair, two pair or sets >200 BB's deep. Bloating the pot with SC's is negating the entire value of the hand.

Sorry for the tough love but your fundamentals need some work and it would behoove you to think more about the implications of RIO hands and the situations you put yourself in by simply calling preflop like this.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-14-2016 , 10:45 PM
OP, I don't hate calling pre here with KJo on the BTN, with these stack sizes. However, that's because I personally am not going to level myself into chucking a 500bb stack into the middle with TPGK. I'd be looking to either smash the flop or tread carefully.

KJo is a better 3! than 75ss IMO because it has blockers, is a stronger hand in absolute terms and is horrible to play multiway, especially if you can't fold TP hands.

Flop is an easy fold to the raise IMO.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 01:41 AM
Guys. Really appreciate the good feedback here so far.

Regarding preflop, I absolutely understand that KJo is typically a fold against a standard UTG+3 open and a MP call for 10x BB. This is just a spot where I knew the tilting Villain's opening range (but not necessarily 3bet calling range) was super wide, with K7s+, QJo, KTo all part of it. Yes he is going to show up with hands that dominate us sometimes but against tilters that is the variance I am willing to accept. Purely from a bankroll perspective I do not have a problem with this at all. It's probably much closer to a raise or a fold when MP (who wasn't tilting) called though.

johnnyBuz and others: I am fine with what you're saying regarding 3bet squeezing, and I can appreciate that A5 and KJ are better 3bet squeeze hands in general due to the blocking potential, but personally I don't like 3bet squeezing with non-premium hands preflop in live games to begin with because as opposed to online, 1) you're much more unlikely to take it down preflop, and 2) you tend to fold out hands you dominate but keep the hands that dominate you (this is why A5 is better than KJ as a pure bluff IMO). Obviously there's still a lot of profit from using your tight image to take it down with a cbet on the flop especially on dry boards, but that applies to any hand, A5, KJ, or 57s. For the reasons stated in the above paragraph, I prefer a call in this particular situation against this particular villain, and a fold in all other cases.

As played on the flop and turn, I think jake and QuadJ are right in saying that because this is a non-standard situation against a tilting villain that could very well be ahead of us, but could just as likely trying to push a draw or simply doing crazy things with middle pair or whatever, and hence it is entirely a judgement call on our part. There are times we call this off and times we fold, and I would agree that KJ here is simply too marginal to call it off so thanks for that.

None of you guys are wrong in saying that there are better spots to make money with much lower variance than this. Yes, we can easily turn a profit playing in this field 500bb deep waiting for premium hands preflop and also nutted hands and draws on the flop and there is no need to get ourselves in sticky situations with bare TPGK. But it is precisely these tilting fish that we want to target and make money from in live games and by doing so, I feel that we should be prepared to get into sticky, high variance situations without the nuts but against a very, very wide range.

Often in live casino games we make disciplined and "correct" folds and then witness 2 idiot tilting gamblers go absolutely crazy with random hands that upon showdown make you realize you had them crushed all the way. When we are not in the hand we also often witness two villains going at it with pots well over 500 BBs and they completely surprise us with their weak holdings at showdown.

Anyway, on to the results:

I tank called the overbet shove and BB folded. Villain shows K9 and I won the $2.2K pot. BB later flipped up and showed that he folded Q6.

Not to be results oriented and to be honest after reading all your responses I agree that flop is a fold to the CR in the best of times. I just want to paint an interesting scenario here where we are truly against a very wide range of hands even against the turn overbet and TPGK, while not a strong holding, is actually ahead of that range because of how much the villain was tilting at this point. A fold is the better and more standard play, but if we are well rolled for it and doesn't fear variance, it is a decision worth considering.

Last edited by cassurai; 05-15-2016 at 01:46 AM.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 02:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cassurai
Guys. Really appreciate the good feedback here so far.

Regarding preflop, I absolutely understand that KJo is typically a fold against a standard UTG+3 open and a MP call for 10x BB. This is just a spot where I knew the tilting Villain's opening range (but not necessarily 3bet calling range) was super wide, with K7s+, QJo, KTo all part of it.
Let's do some combinatorics on the range that you provided, adjusted for the actual results. Here is what you dominate, according to the assigned opening range:

K7s,K8s is 6 total combos.
KT is 12 total combos.
K9 is 12 total combos.
QJ is 12 total combos.

That's a total of 42 hand combos that you dominate.

Now let's look at what dominates you:

AJ is 12 combos.
KQ is 12.
AK is 12.
QQ is 6.
KK is 3.
AA is 6.

So you are dominating him when he has 42 combos of his opening range, but he is dominating you (or worse) with 51 combos of his opening range. You are going to be in trouble more than you are going to have him in trouble.

This is bad news even before we get to the fact that you are multiway and deep.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 02:42 AM
He is also going to be opening JTs and J9s, but I see your point. Perhaps it is really a leak to call with KJo here even against a tilting villain with a very wide opening range.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 02:52 AM
Deep stacks can lead to huge pots.
But to get involved in huge pots, you need huge hands: Sets, Straights, Flushes...
So you can more freely play starting cards that can make huge hands: small pairs, suited connectors...
KJ is not one of those hands.

Calling a 3-4x preflop raise from the button would be speculative but fine considering our read.
But calling a 10x raise seems like a very poor idea.
There are certain raise sizes in which our actual cards override any read we have.
A raise this size demands a premium hand to call with.

Postflop, Villain is clearly screaming that he has a fantastic hand.
So all you beat is a bluff.
Is he really bluffing here against two?
Probably not.

Your hand is not strong.
Throwing your whole stack in with one weak pair is bad poker.
Fold.

--CM
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 03:01 AM
Yeah, I think it is (a leak, responding to 2 posts above this), as others have already told you.

The problem with calling with hands like KJo is, knowing Villain is opening wide is not enough. Knowing that you will sometimes have him in trouble is not enough. You have to know that the times you are good will more than compensate for the times you are in trouble. You don't seem to have that knowledge in this hand.

You could also think of this postflop spot exactly the same way as I'm trying to frame the preflop spot. You got lucky in this hand that he had K9, but unless he shows up with a LOT of air in this spot, you're generally in bad shape when stacks go in if he plays all his Kx this way.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:12 AM
Congrats! You won a huge pot. Here's the problem. Winning a huge pot like this is just like the guy who wins big at Roulette on his first trip to Vegas. For a long time after that he will keep playing whatever dumb system he used for his big win and he will get crushed over time. You will get crushed over time playing this hand just like this. Accept your big win and the advice you are getting....or dont.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
Let's do some combinatorics on the range that you provided, adjusted for the actual results. Here is what you dominate, according to the assigned opening range:

K7s,K8s is 6 total combos.
KT is 12 total combos.
K9 is 12 total combos.
QJ is 12 total combos.

That's a total of 42 hand combos that you dominate.

Now let's look at what dominates you:

AJ is 12 combos.
KQ is 12.
AK is 12.
QQ is 6.
KK is 3.
AA is 6.

So you are dominating him when he has 42 combos of his opening range, but he is dominating you (or worse) with 51 combos of his opening range. You are going to be in trouble more than you are going to have him in trouble.

This is bad news even before we get to the fact that you are multiway and deep.
Great analysis. I would argue that hero's position and read on villain more than makes up for his starting hand disadvantage. I would also argue there is some JT in villain's range too, tilting the hand advantage in hero's favor.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cassurai
I tank called the overbet shove and BB folded. Villain shows K9 and I won the $2.2K pot. BB later flipped up and showed that he folded Q6.

Not to be results oriented and to be honest after reading all your responses I agree that flop is a fold to the CR in the best of times. I just want to paint an interesting scenario here where we are truly against a very wide range of hands even against the turn overbet and TPGK, while not a strong holding, is actually ahead of that range because of how much the villain was tilting at this point. A fold is the better and more standard play, but if we are well rolled for it and doesn't fear variance, it is a decision worth considering.
Congrats on the win and thanks for sharing. The hand is worth analyzing to see if there is any value in continuing. I think we've figured out that folding to the c/r is the best move, ainec. It's not about 'fear' or 'variance' but long term EV. You hit the small sliver of the tilting villain's range that you beat. Over the long run, this is a clear -EV play given villain's expected range.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:26 AM
fold pre
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Congrats! You won a huge pot. Here's the problem. Winning a huge pot like this is just like the guy who wins big at Roulette on his first trip to Vegas. For a long time after that he will keep playing whatever dumb system he used for his big win and he will get crushed over time. You will get crushed over time playing this hand just like this. Accept your big win and the advice you are getting....or dont.
Is this really necessary?

I didn't post here to brag. I posted here because I had doubts about my play.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cassurai
Is this really necessary?

I didn't post here to brag. I posted here because I had doubts about my play.
You seem to be defending your play more than questioning it. Ive been known to do the same thing at times so take that for what its worth.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-15-2016 , 09:50 AM
It is all part of the discussion, and if you read the entire thread I became more convinced my play was not the right one through the advice I received by the posters here, which were mostly constructive and helpful, with the exception of yours. But thank you.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-16-2016 , 12:01 AM
i guess you could make a case for calling considering you dont have Jh. i would want more solid notes and an lol live read.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-16-2016 , 01:36 AM
call me a fish. I have no idea why everyone say u should fold pre...for me 3bet=call > fold. u have KJ and position against a loose tilt player. yes, against a TAG/NIT ofc is a fold.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-16-2016 , 02:26 AM
It was very obvious when op was disregarding advise that he had called and won the hand and was using this results oriented thinking to justify his play. You don't post this hand if dude has AK or 1010.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-16-2016 , 08:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
It was very obvious when op was disregarding advise that he had called and won the hand and was using this results oriented thinking to justify his play. You don't post this hand if dude has AK or 1010.
+1. Was thinking same thing reading thread and OPs responses. However, I do think sometimes you can make a read on a player on that specific hand and action that screams either bluff or shoving light, and with that live read, perhaps not quite as -EV as it appears as presented.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote
05-16-2016 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamstein
+1. Was thinking same thing reading thread and OPs responses. However, I do think sometimes you can make a read on a player on that specific hand and action that screams either bluff or shoving light, and with that live read, perhaps not quite as -EV as it appears as presented.
Future actions don't retroactively change previous streets EV. The point remains the same, if he thinks he is ahead of a tilted steam raise range, calling is the worst of the three options. Raising uncaps our range and it's highly unlikely the tilted guy will fold to a 3bet 500 BB's deep.

We've got a positional advantage. Our card advantage is debatable. So let's use our presumable skill advantage to our benefit and play a 3bet pot IP which is a scenario that most villains respond poorly and incorrectly against.
2/2 very deep - Top pair vs weird line Quote

      
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