Villain is an average-bad young player. He knows to raise, steal, and 3-bet preflop, but his postflop game is rather poor. He likes to call preflop raises with a large range hoping to catch a lucky flop. I didn't play him for quite long but as far as I remember he likes to make a stand at me and call me light in order to show that he's not afraid of my agressiveness.

The table is 7 handed, my image at this point is of a tight player (I doubled up half an hour ago showing AA against QQ). There is a $4 straddle posted.

Everybody fold to me,

Hero HJ (170$) : KQ, raise to $16

Villain SB (cover) : calls

The way he quickly calls tells me that he have some sort of a hand including PPs, suited connectors and gapers, Broadways. I almost discard the very strong hands in which case he would have pondered a 3-bet.

Everybody else fold, two-handed.

Flop ($38): K 8 3

Villain checks, Hero bets $32, Villain calls.

At this point, I put him on a narrow range of PPs, pair of 8 and better, perhaps a pair of 3.

Turn (102$) : 2

Villain checks, Hero bets $42, Villain quickly goes All-in for $122. I have to put $80 more to make the call.

First things first, I was very surprised by this move and I must admit I didn't anticipate it.
As I had been able to narrow quite precisely (as I thought!) Villain's range as a weak-medium hand, I made this thin $42 bet in order to exploit his weakness: calling me too light.
Now about the all-in, I had very contradictory thoughts:

1) Baluga Theorem - never call a C/R OTT!

2) But c'mon, look at his range it's almost empty! He could be making a move at me w/air or raising for whatever reason with a medium strenght hand like a K or 99+ (like I said he's not very good postflop and he can raise without a clear purpose)

3) The pot odds are very tempting : $80 to win $264, more than 1-to-3. I need to win this 25% of the time.

4) (again) Never call a C/R OTT, you're almost always behind!

As you can see, I was very torn apart between the "never call a C/R OTT" philosophy and the "pot odds too good/empty range" philosophy. Which one to go with?

Your sizing is really bad post and you need to top off your stack. I fold here. He called a PSB OTF and is shipping over a large turn bet on a dirt dry board. Don't think he is floating OOP for a PSB with a hand like 79cc and he isn't x/shipping KJ

If number 2 is right then easy call but this is a pretty easy fold otherwise.

I have learned always be worried when you have action on a K high board in low stake, because the only hand V put us on is AK, if you get action, they beat AK.

Sorry, english isn't my native language, what do you mean by "top off your stack"?
What sizing would you play?

Well, the all point is to know weither this number 2 is right... and weight it's likeliness vs the pot odds...
This 2) is based upon statistical thinking: I know that he calls me preflop with a very large range, and I know that only a very-very few hands (namely 33 88 and perhaps 23s and that's about it) could do that c/r all-in legitimally.
That's why I said, I found this c/r very surprising and that's also why I started considering that he could be making a move at me or a silly c/r with a medium strenght hand.

You should always "top off your stack" meaning if the max buy in is 200 and you lose a pot and go down to 172, you should add on $28 to get back up to the max. The reason being you should have a skill edge over your opponents at these stakes and you want to play as deep as possible to get max value from their mistakes.

This flop is incredibly dry and we want our opponents range to be as wide as possible. By potting flop, we are getting some of the weaker parts of his range to fold sometimes. We don't need to protect against any draws or anything. Also, if you are worried about balancing your range at these stakes (many people say you don't need to) then we will be cbetting this flop with our air 100% of the time and we want to cbet less to give ourselves better odds on our bluff. I would cbet a around half pot

Why are you excluding sets (88,33) from his range? In his position on the flop against an aggressive player, I would be check/calling the dry flop all day. It's also not a good board for double barreling IMO, so the fact that you're still betting the turn tells me you probably have a good king, so it a question of raising the turn or calling then leading the river.

Honestly 88 or 33 are the only hands here that really make a lot of sense to me after the turn play. I know you mentioned he likes to make a stand against you, however, this would be a pretty gutsy (and furthermore, terrible) place to make a stand with air. Without a better read I'm folding to his raise.

The reason I made this big bet is that I knew, given the information I had on Villain, that he won't ever fold any weakish hand like one pair or even a hand like AQ against me on this dry board as he knows that I routinely c-bet and he wants to show everybody that he knows that (I said I saw him calling me light in the past).
I wanted to take maximum value and commit him to this pot as much as I could early in the hand so it would be more difficult to him to fold any medium strenght hand later in the hand.
If for instance he called OTF with a hand like TT, it would be more easy for him to fold it on a turn brick if I made a $20 OTF than with a $32 bet.
I really feel that making a small bet OTF is missing value against this player.
Not sure it's a valid reason, you tell me...

I am not excluding them by any mean. I am just saying that they represent such a tiny part of his big preflop range that his turn move is very suspicious.

I said that this player is rather bad and those considerations are completly out of his scope. He's not aware of what is a good board for second barreling at all.

Same as above. This player doesn't know which is a good board to make a daring bluff and which isn't.


Other opinions, you guys all think this is a clear fold OTT?

Actually he's offering a little better than 2-1 not 3-1.

With his extremely wide range, his spazzy tendencys, his probable ability to over value a worse K when a a flush/str8 draw comes and maybe his capacity for c/raising draws I think makes it a call I think we are good here 1 in 3 times.

There is $102 in the pot after the flop, I bet $42, he raise $122 that's a total $266. I have to pay $80 to take $266... It seems to me like 3-to-1 (even a little more in fact)...

Apart from that and that I only need to win like 23% of the time if I don't mistake, I completely agree with you.
Given Villain's near empty range and tendecies, pot odds, I can't fold for such odds. It's not so close I think.

I actually really like a check behind OTT and then call river or bet if checked to. It's really hard to get three streets of value on a board like this. Use your position.

sorry you got coolered, but this is an obv call. not only are you getting over 3:1 but you also started the hand with 85bb, if you were deeper then the Baluga Theorem may apply. sure he could have two pair or a set but a8cc/a3cc, kj-k9 are also in his range.

A couple things here, your description of villan seems to be he is some what of a calling station. Calling stations do what the do best, they call. Once a known calling station check raises the turn on a dry board TPGK just doesn't have enough equity to make this call IMO. This is way out of character for the villan you described. If he had a worse hand than you be would continue to call. His check raise now narrows his range a considerable amount to 2 pair plus and sets.

I think preflop your bet sizing is fine. Flop and turn I think your betting too large given the dry board texture. With your large bets it makes it much harder to bet fold, which is something we should be aware of. Personally I like checking back turn as it's hard to get 3 streets of value with TPGK. Then we can bomb river when checked to, or just call river when V bets. As played it's a tough decision but it sill think folding is best.

Also top off your stack, especially when there are bad villans. You want to get max value from stations.

The way V is described, does he think KJ or KT is the nuts here? I know players who will just not give up when they hit top pair on dry boards.

As played, I probably have to call. If I wasn't going to call, I wouldn't have bet.

(BTW, I don't think turn sizing is too large at all -- it's less than half pot -- but you can't really bet anything on turn and fold to a raise. Flop bet was a bit large in this situation.)

Never say never in poker!

I check the flop,
With this flop, there's no hands he would call on the flop that he wouldn't call on the turn, you also get more information, and you don't bloat the pot into having to call a marginal shove

As played, with the kind of player who "likes to make a stand" I call the shove. He has too many flush draws and weak kings/TT type hands that he is trying to end the hand with. I'm in no way surprised at seeing a set

I'm almost never checking the flop. Turn, yes, flop, no. I want him calling with worse every time.

This is far from a cooler btw even only 85bb deep. And being willing to put weak Kx hands in his check raising range seems optimistic. Personally I think we got ourselves in a bad spot by betting too large. Now we are getting a good price and are left hoping that we are good here 25% of the time.

For 2) to be right you have to have seen him ship TPBK OTT. If he takes a stand by calling too much, you exploit that by value betting 99+ OTF & OTT and fold with almost your whole range when he tells you he is nutted.

If he takes a stand by accidently balancing his range or something dumb and he commits ultra light then you call.

If you don't have a specific hand where he ships a depolarized range, you have to fold, becauae very few players do this. "Taking a stand" doesnt mean much if he does this by calling and getting to showdown.

If the board was Q hi, I snap call. (Because AK missed).