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2/2 River decision with TT 2/2 River decision with TT

10-14-2016 , 02:55 PM
Hero is brand new to the table and has never seen villain before. Game is 2/2 with a max buy in of $150, which hero has in front of him. Villain covers. Input on all streets is welcome, of course, but my main focus is the river decision.

OTTH:

Unknown UTG player raises to $5
UTG +1 villain calls.
Hero calls on button with TT (suits are irrelevant to how the hand plays out)
Both blinds call.

I don't 3 bet UTG raises (even small ones) from unknown players when I have TT. I'd rather take a flop multiway in position and see what develops.

Pot is $20 after rake.
Flop: 962
All check to hero, who bets $15.
Only villain calls. I range him on a flush draw, some one pair hands, a set, or a straight draw.

Turn: 5
Villain checks, hero bets $30 into the $50 pot. Villain calls. I think that the passive villain line makes a set or turned straight less likely, although of course I can't be sure.

River: Q
Villain tanks for quite a while and then bets $45 into the $110 pot.

I am getting over 3:1 on a call and wonder if I should bluff catch or fold. It's quite unlikely I beat any hand that bets for value here.
2/2 River decision with TT Quote
10-14-2016 , 03:07 PM
Nh. Now call river and lose to 99/78/Qhxh somewhere between 60-80% of the time, ldo.
2/2 River decision with TT Quote
10-14-2016 , 03:10 PM
I think it's an easy river call. I think this is 9x more than enough times to justify a call. It's an odd bet for a bluff and his line would be pretty funky for a value hand. I guess QXhh is really the only hand I reasonably expect to be behind here.
2/2 River decision with TT Quote
10-14-2016 , 10:50 PM
What is the standard preflop raise in that game? If $5 is way below it, then 3-bet preflop. You do want to build some sort of a pot with a strong hand like TT.

Call river. I think you can be good 1/4 of the time, even though more often than not you will be beat. Heck, villain might even be betting K9 or A9 for value.
2/2 River decision with TT Quote
10-14-2016 , 11:32 PM
Fold.

This is never 9x. How often do low stakes unknowns turn second pair into a bluff?. I think 9x check/calls you for 3 streets.

I also don't think this is a missed flush draw. You bet flop into 5 people. Even a bad player will know that you usually don't have Ace high or KQo.

This bet looks like he wants to get a call. Wouldn't be surprised if you get shown some weird two pair or maybe Qxhh.
2/2 River decision with TT Quote
10-15-2016 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeGambo
Fold.

This is never 9x. How often do low stakes unknowns turn second pair into a bluff?. I think 9x check/calls you for 3 streets.

I also don't think this is a missed flush draw. You bet flop into 5 people. Even a bad player will know that you usually don't have Ace high or KQo.

This bet looks like he wants to get a call. Wouldn't be surprised if you get shown some weird two pair or maybe Qxhh.
looks more like a blocking bet to me, sure he will have QhXh sometimes, w/e
2/2 River decision with TT Quote

      
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