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2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? 2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here?

09-09-2019 , 10:49 AM
V1 is a middle aged Asian guy who just sat down less than an orbit ago. Nothing really noteworthy with his play so far. Can’t be certain yet, but he seems like a typical passive low stakes player. Limped in a couple pots but hasn’t shown down anything yet. V2 is a younger guy (mid 20s) and is really splashy. He’s called down super light in spots he’s obviously beat, but he’s hit a few big draws and doubled up a couple times recently to build a good sized stack. OTTH.

UTG folds, Hero($500) UTG+2 raises to $15 with AQc. V2 In MP($600) HJ, and V($225) in BB call. (Pot: $62)

Flop: 7c3c3d

Checks to hero who bets $35. V2 calls, HJ folds, V1 raises to $100. Hero?

Definitely not folding here, but not sure if just a flat or a 3b is the right play with me being behind MP who covers me. I’m thinking this is a great spot to squeeze for V1, but the raise size looks really strong. I’d be less worried about GII against a jam from V1. Not really worried about V2 at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s just floating with overs, so not sure if I want to keep him in and just flat, or put the $ in now and take advantage of the dead $ already in the pot. If I did flat, V2 calls, turn blanks and V1 shoves, I’d be in a weird spot. I’d have the equity to call V1, but with V2 still behind me, idk what the right play would be.

Thanks for the feedback.
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 10:56 AM
fold
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 11:34 AM
Never shoving, you have basically zero fold equity against V1 who has committed close to half his stack, plus you want V2 to come along to add more money to the pot if you hit.

You aren't quite getting direct odds to call, but with implied odds and the chance of V2 coming along as well, I think it's a call. Turn then just becomes a math problem based on whether or not you call, whether or not V2 flatted flop to add dead money or an A or Q peels off to give you extra outs will be deciders.

EDIT: On second thought, I wouldn't mind just folding flop either. You could just be stone dead against 77 or 73s. I doubt a middle aged passive player would be making this play with anything less than 3x, and how many combos of that will he really have to offset the 5 combos you are dead against? I still probably call flop in game, but wouldn't hate on someone for folding either.

Last edited by football0020; 09-09-2019 at 11:46 AM.
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 11:39 AM
Tough spot. I would have checked the flop, but here we are....I hate this scenario on a paired board. If V2 flopped gin with 77, he's certainly smooth-calling your lead on this flop. I agree V1 can raise only with 3x or air.

Now your cojones are in a vice because if you call, you risk getting squeezed by V2 if he has the case 3x and if he has 77, we're as dead as Elvis.

If everyone calls, there would be 420 in the pot to the turn. V1 has around 110 behind so he's not folding. Hero would have a PSB left behind. So we would offer V2 2-1 on a call if we jammed a brick turn. If V2 folds flop, there would be 265 in pot and V1 would offer you 7-2 on a turn shove, so you wouldn't be getting the right price unless there's a lot of spaz in his range.

I guess that's the problem here. We likely need to make our flush to be good here and we're not getting the right price. We also offer V2 the correct price if he has anything ahead of us. Worse still, one or more of our flush outs may boat-up one of the Vs. So I'm sigh-folding and perhaps it's weak but it is what it is.
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 01:15 PM
Yeah.. not folding nfd w/ spr 3 vs BB. I would just x flop 4-way
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Tough spot. I would have checked the flop, but here we are....I hate this scenario on a paired board. If V2 flopped gin with 77, he's certainly smooth-calling your lead on this flop. I agree V1 can raise only with 3x or air.



Now your cojones are in a vice because if you call, you risk getting squeezed by V2 if he has the case 3x and if he has 77, we're as dead as Elvis.



If everyone calls, there would be 420 in the pot to the turn. V1 has around 110 behind so he's not folding. Hero would have a PSB left behind. So we would offer V2 2-1 on a call if we jammed a brick turn. If V2 folds flop, there would be 265 in pot and V1 would offer you 7-2 on a turn shove, so you wouldn't be getting the right price unless there's a lot of spaz in his range.



I guess that's the problem here. We likely need to make our flush to be good here and we're not getting the right price. We also offer V2 the correct price if he has anything ahead of us. Worse still, one or more of our flush outs may boat-up one of the Vs. So I'm sigh-folding and perhaps it's weak but it is what it is.


Why would we check such a dry flop here? If we bet, we can take it down uncontested, or we build a pot we have a ton of equity in.


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2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 01:56 PM
2/2 means two two-dollar blinds, yes? If so, your open was way too big. $6-$8 would be better. Even if you don't expect to be tortured by three-bets, your opens should be smaller because in low-stakes games where pots are often multiway, you are going to have to give up on the flop a lot, so save your preflop money when this happens by opening smaller.

I am going to assume that "AQc" means that you hold both the club ace and club queen, and not just an offsuit ace with the club queen. (Better ways to write this, that avoid this confusion, would be "AcQc" or "AQcc".)

The flop is a dry one, quite hard to hit, and, except for club draws, it largely misses the ranges of the callers. Maybe someone has 77. Maybe someone has A3s (there are only two possible combos of suited A3, do you see why?)

On the one hand, we have a range advantage over any individual in the field, and this flop is difficult to hit. On the other, it is a four-way pot and we are in worst position. Apart from sets or trips, the only way to hit this flop is with a club draw, and we block most of the best of them by holding AcQc.

If I am betting at all on this flop, I want to bet small, like a quarter to a third of the pot, i.e., in the $15-20 range. The good news is that being four-handed, betting $15 isn't a downbet, so it doesn't look as "weak" to an ignorant fool.

But I think that the factor of position makes this hand a check: check and evaluate, very likely check and call.

As played, you bet too big, the villain raised too big, and the villain doesn't have enough behind to make a call worthwhile, so thanks to your preflop and flop blunders, this becomes a fold.
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote
09-09-2019 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Yeah.. not folding nfd w/ spr 3 vs BB. I would just x flop 4-way
If you're not folding, are you calling here or jamming?

V2 is still in the hand, has flatted pre and post-flop and cover us. We need some FE to make this situation EV+ for us against two ranges in all likelihood. We have none against V1 since he just has ~100 behind.

If we just call, V2 probably will not pay us for our flush if we're lucky enough to hit it. At least 2 of our flush outs are possibly dirty against 2 players. This is not a fist-pumping spot. I think fold>jam>call, but Id' love to hear more from you on this scenario.
2/2.  Jam Or Flat With A Big Draw Here? Quote

      
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