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2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. 2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game.

08-25-2016 , 08:17 PM
Hi there guys.
This hand is from a 7handed game in a small cardroom. Almost all players are regulars/known to me, including both villains in this hand. It's a very loose game with 2/2 blinds and a mandatory 5 euro straddle.

V1: late 20's Arabic guy, very talkative, very aggressive. He doesn't have a particularly good grasp of mathematical or game theory fundamentals but seems to understands gameplay/gameflow reasonably well. Plays too loose pre, he seems to bluffs too much post and has been known to raise for info. Basically your standard laggy LLSNL reg. About even at the time of the hand.

V2: Middle aged guy, super passive calling station/whale. Plays like 80/30 pre and calls post on any pair any draw for up to a PSB. Is known and actually prides himself for playing 2x hands. Needless to say i enjoy having him at the table. Currently down 300, which is a modest loss for him.

Hero: 30ish WG, playing TAG/LAGish but opponents have been joking about how tight i've been playing, and compared to most at the table they are right. Bluffed (and showed) on a river allin in an earlier hand, which caused V1 to mention that he thinks i play less tight than perceived. Up about 200 after losing my first buyin.

This is getting TL;DR fast so let's get OTTH:
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Preflop:
It's folded to V2 (700) on the BTN who limps, which he probably does with half the deck. I'm not sure what his exact limping range is, I only know he is really unlikely to either fold or raise should it get raised.

V1 (1k) in the SB raises to 25. Even though i've seen him raise pretty wide pre, him being out of position with the stationy whale already in i think he has a somewhat tighter range, like 77+/KQo+/JTs+.

BB folds.

Hero (1200) is in the straddle with AJ. I considered 3betting because SB is gonna call with almost his entire range and only 4bet AK/QQ+. But we are deep and i wanted to let the whale in, so i call.

Flop (77 pre rake):
T:32

The SB checks. I expect him to cbet almost all overpairs and Tx hands, as well as any heart draw. At this point i put him on broadway cards or 77-99.

I considered stabbing here, but the whale is just calling anything that remotely looks like a draw and his range hits these low flops quite a bit.

So i check and V2 checks also. He is pretty much betting only Tx or better i'd say.

Turn: T bringing in the 2nd flushdraw.
V1/SB checks again. Hero bets 45.
This time i do take a stab, hoping to win the pot, fold out AQ/AK from the SB and possibly even get value from the whale who might call with hands like A5, 64 or flushdraws. Plus i have outs vs him if he has like 34o or 52s. But mostly i'm just hoping to get folds.

V2/BTN does call and V1/SB now makes it 110.

I kind of discounted him having Tx or an overpair. I also don't think he would raise 22 or 33 pre, but i might be wrong. I do give him credit for being tricky enough to have those hands some of the time, but mostly i think he has 77-99 and is trying to win it now/find out where he is at, or he is semibluffing a flushdraw, probably spades.

The pot is now 277.

Hero thinks for 20 seconds and makes it 275.
I think i can rep Txs/33/22 a lot here. Plan was to shove any river that isn't a spade or broadway vs V1 and just go for showdown value if V2 calls.

Looking back i'm kinda divided by my raise. It obviously looks really strong but i don't think either of my opponents is folding a flushdraw, V1 as said might have sets or quads some of the time and V2 could still have some Tx, which he is just never folding. However i am folding out a lot of 77+/AK/AQ and some other hands with equity.

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So, reasonable play or FPS?
Comments and criticism on all streets are welcome. Will post results if requested.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-25-2016 , 09:30 PM
If you let the straddle untouched pre and checked the flop, now bluffing the turn is not gonna work most of the time if your game has fish or skilled villains in the pot.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 04:55 AM
Not very credible, no good reason for us to check this flop with any strong made hands

Btn range has very few strong hands but sb can reasonable have many and may not be afraid to continue with medium strength hands like pocket 88.. if they are getting frisky with a flush draw we might be able to win it but the bluff seems antipercentage
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 07:04 AM
I don't see many reasons to get carried away. Better spots are obtainable given the villains described.

I don't mind stealing on the turn given the small blind showed weakness, but I don't enjoy formulating a plan to airball bluff an "OK LAG" and a station for nearly half my stack.

The sb's turn raise sizing really alerts me too given he may be aware there's a whale in the pot, and based on game flow he knows you're capable of bluffing. Looks valuey.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 09:33 AM
On the turn, your plan relied on villain folding AK/AQ. An implied part of your plan is that villain isn't going to rebluff you very often. If this is not the case, you shouldn't be bluffing with this hand. If it is the case, then you shouldn't be rebluffing what is a strong range.

Seems like you decided you wanted to win the and just spewed your money in. Now you have a loose player who doesn't like to fold and a loose villain who likes to raise and you've put in 55bb with total air. Massively minus ev.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703
On the turn, your plan relied on villain folding AK/AQ. An implied part of your plan is that villain isn't going to rebluff you very often. If this is not the case, you shouldn't be bluffing with this hand. If it is the case, then you shouldn't be rebluffing what is a strong range.

Seems like you decided you wanted to win the and just spewed your money in. Now you have a loose player who doesn't like to fold and a loose villain who likes to raise and you've put in 55bb with total air. Massively minus ev.
What do you think SB's range is tho? For me he doesn't have many pure bluffs with his sizing and the whale in the hand. But i also don't see him having sets or Tx after he checks twice on a drawheavy board with a calling station behind him.

I'm probably playing devils advocate on my own analysis here, but his range seems more capped than strong and some of his (semi)bluffs beat us, which makes it a good spot to make a (re)bluff imo.

And why do you think AJ is not a good hand to bluff here? We do have a blocker to AK/AQ but that shouldn't be that big of a factor. AJ is pretty much the best air hand i'm gonna have in this spot. Also, i'm not sure if SB would ever rebluff AQ/AK here, but those hands actually have us beat so technically that wouldn't even be a rebluff .
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 03:06 PM
I think SB's range is 88-QQ here and you're going to get called after you 3b the turn and he's going to c/c on the river.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-26-2016 , 03:34 PM
We could go into a bunch of detail about the ranges here, but for me, it comes down to: this is a loose game and you have a bluffy image. Your bluff has little chance of success here - do we actually fold out AQ and AK? Maybe, maybe not! I don't think V is folding 88 here ever given your line.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-27-2016 , 04:04 PM
I love it when the poker geniuses come out to knock down any play that isn't super standard.

This boils down to V's range when he c/r on the turn. If he really does this with any pocket pair like the forum seems to believe then a four bet is mandatory. He is absolutely folding any pocket pair to a raise here. He would be crazy to stack off 1k deep on the assumption that if a guy checks the flop he never has top pair.

I happen to think his range is a little narrower. I think he has 1010 and A10 here a fair amount. I don't think it is impossible for him to check his top pair on the flop if he has A10. He's out of position with a large pre flop pot. No reason to blindly shove in chips with a one pair hand.

Still we are risking $230 to win $270 so he only needs to fold about 50% to be profitable. If he has anywhere close to 50% pocket pairs here I think this is a good bet. If he's only doing this with 1010, A10, which is true of a lot of 1/3 players, then obviously this isn't a very good move.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-27-2016 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
I think SB's range is 88-QQ here and you're going to get called after you 3b the turn and he's going to c/c on the river.
This just never really happens at 1/3
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote
08-28-2016 , 05:23 AM
Flat pre to keep the donk/whale in the hand.

Now just give up. Just c/f this hand. V1 is never bluff raising once the whale calls your bet. Think about it. What do whales do? Hint: They never fold. V1 always has 'it' in this spot.

Edit: V1's sizing just screams strength. He basically put in a min-raise. He doesn't want either one of you to fold. My guess is that he somehow has a boat/quads already.
2-2-5 spewy(?) 3bet turn bluff in very loose game. Quote

      
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