1/2 game

Have some history with villain. He bluffed me in a pretty huge and somewhat infamous hand but we mostly avoid each other.

He raises UTG to 22 (there is a straddle). I flat in UTG+2 hoping that the straddle squeezes (and also wary of the UTG raise - he is definitely solid and on the snugger side.) no 3bet and the straddle comes along.

Flop is 68Kcc.

UTG +1 bets 45, I raise to 120, he shoves for remaining rather quickly.

We were $300 effective to start the hand.

This is one of those marginal spots where you have to call off $150ish more to win $450ish with only TPTK. It's definitely a tough spot, but this decision has mostly to do with history between you and the villain. His line is so strong it turns our TPTK into a virtual bluff catcher. If this hand were to be replayed 10 times, what percentage of bluffs is in his range? What percentage of better hands than TPTK is in his range?

I don't think it's a terrible fold at the 1/2 level, mostly because villains at this level aren't going to be 3betting on the flop with bluffs a large percentage of the time.

You say he is snug. A few important variables:

Is the K on board Kc? Do you have Ac or Kc in hand?

If the club is on board, it means this isn't AKcc, which I think reduces his hand to either 88, KK, AA, AK, an occasional bluff with something like QQ, and marginal hands like KQ. It could also definitely be a flush draw having equity and trying to maximize it by getting it in now.

I don't love this spot at all, but, I think you are ahead of him enough to make a call. If you can get any kind of read that he is strong, I would then tilt this back towards folding. From a mathematical standpoint though, I think we have equity.

Yeah I called it off rather quickly but in the post analysis I don't know that he is ever bluffing here in this spot. Previous history is where he bluffed me off of K10xc on a QJA63cccc board and then showed me 99 no club but can't read too much into one hand.

Does a solid player ever get KQ in here in this spot? A club draw? Almost feel I am drawing dead or drawing to 2 ours almost 100% of re time here. A classic example of why blocker talk is kind of bs.

His much does the chance of having the same hand weigh in here?

King of clubs on the board and I have no club

As long as no one thinks that calling off is absolutely horrid, I guess I'm okay with it regardless of result.

I would definitely only raise if I were planning to snapcall a shove, because otherwise there isn't much point: what worse hands is he going to flat your raise with OOP, the few combos of Axcc in his range? A stubborn KQ? If I'm raising here it's because my dynamic with villain is such that he'll 3b (semi)bluff shove here with a reasonable frequency. Otherwise just flat, which I think is much better overall; it's not like he has any straight draws in his range, and since he's snug there are only a few FD combos you need to worry about.

But yeah, raise/fold would be a pretty bad line here imo.

Good points in hindsight I think flatting is a better option than raise gii. However I think I'm doomed in this hand regardless but maybe I can put in less than my full stack.

Don't like the flop raise at all. You were wary of his UTG open but now that you flopped a King you're no longer concerned with his range? Do you expect him to continue with QQ here? Also the suits are quite important. If it's Kx6c8c and you don't have the Ac/Kc you could be getting freerolled.

As played I'd have to call because of the raise mistake but I would not feel good about it.

I agree with this completely and trust me I did not feel good about any of it lol.

Two questions: if I'm super wary of his UTG range can AK ever be ahold preflop?

Second: if I flat on the flop am I jus folding if/when he bombs the turn?

And quite frankly I think I just got kind of lazy on the flop "this is a tough spot lets just get it in and if its a cooler it's a cooler" definitely leaky thinking

1. I'm personally not good enough to fold AK preflop for one bet. There's a good chance you'll be in position for the duration of the hand even though you're UTG+2 because of the raise size.

2. There's no yes or no answer here unfortunately. If he checks a safe looking turn I'm most likely bet/folding. If he bombs the turn my action will depend on what card it is, reads, etc.

I know he's bluffed you before but you have to remember he knows that too. He will be less inclined to do it again because you're more likely to call now. So when he bets big, and your range looks like TP+ to him, you can fold.

Anyone feel better about 3bet folding preflop? How big? 65ish?

After I raise the flop I'm not folding here. We've got close to half our stack in right now and once we raise I think we commit ourselves here. But I don't think I'm feeling too great about getting it in and expect to be beat here a measurable amount of the time.

Idk, maybe it's just me. But I like the flat PF (with check/calling OTF). If he's solid and snug, even if we overestimate his skill and tightness some I still think he basically only plays back at us with hands hands that have us in trouble. JJ?-QQ+, AK, maybe AQs?

3b pre. As played you have to call after raising half your stack into the pot. I would expect to be beat pretty often though. Just close your eyes, hope he has AQcc, and not KK/AA.

PF you are fine ... if he is 'snugger' in this spot then take a Flop and see what happens. Not so sure I turn my hand face up here with a raise ... you lose all your positional advantage when you do this depending on his cbet frequency.

You are focused on the bluff from earlier. This really isnt a good spot for that and most good 1-2 players will know this with this much action in the hand so far. You are looking at AA/KK/AK for the most part here at 1-2. KQ is never 3-betting this Flop without a flush draw (and Kc on board, right?) so you are behind most of the range I would put someone who I have experience with on here in this spot. GL

Thanks everyone for the responses. Was mentioning the bluff more to show he isn't a total ABC nit, but that he is pretty solid. I don't expect him to be going crazy in this spot but his range could be a bit wider than KK/AA.

3! pre. bet flop. shove turn.

3bet a bit more than you were saying to about ~70

3 combos of AA, 3 combo 88, 1 combo KK, 1 combo AQcc, 1 combo AJcc, I random bluff or spazz that we have crushed. That puts us at around 26% equity not including AK chops ( don't know how to do that in my head)


Means that once I make the mistake of raising I have to call?

Wow my math is lol wrong gonna open up slice when I get home

I like the flat pre unless you know he is continuing with KQo or worse. Hate the flop raise because he is probably only continuing with hands that have us crushed.

I'd call flop and reevaluate the turn depending on turn card.

People giving him credit for spazz bluffing after we put half our stack in are too optimistic. It would be nice to know the suit of the king on board.

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Very nice post. Agree about the spazzing. At this level I would say players going crazy with KK on an A high board is like a 1000 times more likely than players with JJ/QQ spazzing on a K high board.

That being said I can't agree more about the flop raise. I'm trying to look at the bright side and take this a a teachable moment where I learned a very important $300 lesson (could have been much worse). I think if I took a little more time and really analyzed his continuing range if I flat vs his continuing range if I raise I would see that raising is terrible. I really need to take time with my decisions.

I think I get felted anyway because an Ace came on the river and I see no way I'm folding at that point (unless I can escape somehow on the turn).

Like I said very enlightening even if I had to learn by experience.

I routinely ask myself "why am I raising?". Will better fold, or will worse call?". That usually puts me in the right mind set.

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