Live 10/20. Table is pretty soft with 3 spots and a couple unknowns.

Hero with KQ in HJ
2 limps from EP, 1 limp from LJ
Hero raises to 120, all 3 limpers call

Flop (500): T 7 6
Checks around

Turn: A
Checks around

River: K
Checks to LJ, who bets 625

Hero?

Wrong forum and idk how we can call this without reads and with two players behind.

Oops, meant to post this in med-high stakes. Mods please move if possible

Fold riv. Don’t bet turn if thinking about it.

I could move it, but we still need reads, stack sizes, corrected positions (both you and one of Vs are given as HJ), etc.

I'd suggest that you just re-post it there with a better OP.

Generally speaking, this doesn't sound like it would ever be a call on a soft table.

Main villain is LJ, I’m HJ to his left. He’s short with $1500, me and 2 other Vs with $5k. Middle aged Asian guy with headphones, never seen before. No real reads as the game just started an hour ago. Limped a few hands, raised a couple hands.

Villain can be stabbing with a pretty wide range after flop, turn and river check through. My range is also capped and I should only be defending the top third of my range. Just wondering if KQ no spades falls in that category. I shouldn’t have any 2p, sets or Ax so I do have to call some Kx.

As I said, I'd re-post this hand in MHFR if I were you, and do so with all of the info.

Yeah it’s 10/20 but the action looks like 1/2 so why not comment right?

I’d probably fold. Even if we beat the bettor, there is two people behind who could have something as well. Just seems like a bad spot for our $


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To me this seems to be such a useless thing to be thinking about and is something that a lot of online pros transitioning to live just don’t understand. You don’t have to defend 1/3rd of ur range in a 4way pot and even if you did it’s not like anyone is playing some equilibrium strat in a 4way limp called checked down pot.

Something useful to be thinking about is how often you see this line taken as a bluff and if you believe this player would often x ss to the pfr on this turn or if he would valuebet qj for this sizing etc,etc. If you’ve seen this player limping and sitting short it’s most likely a weaker player and atleast from my experience it would be uncommon to see a bluff here.

My understanding of this situation is your own defense burden drops way down since that 1/3 figure is shared among all three players in the pot.

I never played online. My background is playing 1/2, 1/3 live and building my roll and slowly moving up stakes for the past 1.5 years. I came from an exploitative background and didn’t even know what GTO is. I still think range vs range analysis vs a relative unknown is better than making huge exploitative deviations once you start moving into the midstakes+. I’ve played enough hours and seen enough OMCs bluff their stacks at 5/10+ to not skew 100% of my decisions purely towards player tendencies.

MDF vs this sizing dictates I have to defend about 45% of my range, but I’m saying I’d probably defend top one third as there’s two players behind, even though the chance of them calling after I overcall and them triple checking is extremely low. V is repping QJ and some flushes, even though I expect him to sometimes bet turn with spades. He can certainly have air that’s bluffing into 3 very capped ranges. Folding 100% of my range is not the most +ev line, I have to call some hands because he has a non-zero bluffing frequency here.

Defense is shared between everyone in the hand so with two other players left to act, the three of you need to defend 45% combined.

fold

Correct. Which means he needs 55% folds to this. Meaning that if everyone is approximated as an independent variable, each one needs to fold at a prob of (.55^(1/3)) ~ 0.82. So we only need to defend approx 1-0.82 = 0.18 for ourselves to not be exploited.


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6x kinda small pre
I'd bet turn on the smaller side and plan on bombing good rivers if hu
easy fold ap

With limpers if probably be looking at $180/$200 pre.

River is definitely a fold.

I think gto is really good to study but I don't think you need to defend with 4 people in the hand. Heads up, you might be able to justify it.

Other than complete air you're not really beating anything imo. Flush was bd, so maybe that helps your case, but I think you're about to lose to a weak Ace.

No point to post this in the other forum. Easy fold

Rather raise than call

this is incorrect. defense doesn't get distributed equally among the players involved. the easiest example to illustrate this is BTN vs SB vs BB.

when BTN opens, it seems intuitive the the defense of the SB and BB is shared, because it is, but what is less intuitive is that BB has to bear the brunt of the overall defense burden, not because he has more money in the pot initially, but by his overall position as last to act. SB can't defend as wide as the BB because SB still has to worry about the BB. BB does not have these concerns and can call wider closing the action.

this idea is also seen in many situations throughout poker when a V bets and some # of Vs fold and the last player to act calls and has something that is weak. Or when you hear a guy say, "if he didn't call the river bet, i was going to", they don't know mathematically why they are doing what they are doing, or that it is generally the correct strategy, but it's one of those instances where many people just landed on the correct strat through shear luck.

Apologies for my oversimplication but this is correct.

IOW we have to defend even less than my naive assumption that each player has an equal defense frequency. Meaning we really don’t have to call that often at all.


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2 players behind us are irrelevant. we should have them beat by virtue of them checking the A either OTT (if acting after us) or OTR (if acting before us). the only problem is the LJ might have checked an A or better OTT because:
1) if they have an A, they may just check/call
2) if they have better than an A, they would check to the raiser, since it hits our range better than theirs.

once you don't bet the A, it's a pretty good indication you do not have an A, and since you checked the flop, you don't have KK, so you are really capped at KQ, which is the hand you actually have. if you think V value cuts/bluffs 36% of the time here, it's a call.

a perceptive V should be doing this with any A though to merge which makes it all that more complicated. in game i probably fold because it doesn't sound like you have a ton of info on V

^ 2 outta 9 ain't bad

yep, pretty much covers the thinking behind my intended 'fold' post, and fwiw i play 5/10/20 and this table sounds like a dream w/ limpers etc

Locking this because the OP hasn't provided the information asked for, let alone that this 10/20.