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10/10 vs. Unknown Player 10/10 vs. Unknown Player

06-02-2018 , 10:15 PM
NWI N/L 1/2
Hero has 1010 in Big Blind. There are 4 limpers and SB folds. Hero makes it 20. Only villain calls. Villain is a 60 yo WG who is definitely not a nit. Hero does not know him well but has seen him very aggressively bet 1 pair hands to the river, and stack off with KQ preflop.
Flop $47
789
Hero leads for 25 and Villain just calls.
Turn 2
Pot 97 Hero???? Should I assume I am ahead here and keep betting? What amount? 50? Is there any merit to check/calling turn?
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06-02-2018 , 11:07 PM
Could go either way, imo. A free card is not the end of the world with a SD and overpair. OTOH, V could pay a bet OTT with hands that won't pay OTR.

I'd usually bet $50, as I tend to default to the aggressive action if it is close.
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06-02-2018 , 11:41 PM
I would still be assuming you're ahead. He could have JT, but you block that. On an ultra-wet flop like this he would have raised with a set or two pair.

My instinct was to bet, which would be fine as well, but I think best is to check call. I'm operating under the assumption that villain has some one pair hand. Betting again represents an overpair, which is what we actually have. It's difficult to bluff into a board like this, so it's difficult to balance value bets. That's why when the board is more favorable for your opponent's range than for yours, you should lean towards structuring your ranges passively. We need to allow the opponent to bluff here.

Imagine he has something like Q9. If you bet again, he might give you credit for an overpair and fold. If you check, he probably bets, because that's what players like this do when you check to them, they want to take the pot down. Now after you call, he probably thinks you have an overpair, or maybe a draw. Imagine that the river is something like a 6 or J and you check to him again. He's probably going to turn his hand into a bluff, right? If you have QQ+ there, that's a tough call. So I think you should check call twice, regardless of river card. Obviously there will be some rivers that are good for him, but there are way more scare cards that do nothing for him than that help him.
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06-02-2018 , 11:48 PM
Just keep betting against this type without making too big of a bet. You are unlucky to encounter any multi street bluffs/semi bluffs so leave room to call a steeet and re-eval your equity on the river. Check call and showdown is ok too but really you’re doing better in this game against a likely straightforward player just going for multi street value even this far down in your range.
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06-03-2018 , 02:20 AM
it depend s on your stack size of course. if its small i would try to be pushing hard on the flop. it its huge you are in trouble.
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06-03-2018 , 02:36 AM
I bet a little more like 35 OTF. As played 65 OTT and call a shove if we have a stack size of 100BB or less. We still have decent equity against an overpair, a flopped set or two pair and I think those hands all raise us OTF anyway.
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06-03-2018 , 05:38 AM
If he reraises large river it's a fold though correct assuming a non-straight card or even a Q or Ace though?
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06-03-2018 , 05:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
If he reraises large river it's a fold though correct assuming a non-straight card or even a Q or Ace though?
You need to clarify the effective stack sizes. It is very hard to give advice without knowing how much you and villian have behind. If you are playing NL like I play with 100BB it is very difficult for him to get to the river with AQ.
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06-03-2018 , 06:00 AM
In this situation the guy ended up having J10 for a made straight and it seemed like, to me, my turn bet was just spewage. Then again, if I had a made straight on a two to the flush board I would c/r or raise all day on the flop/turn. However, he is trappy and I guess and did not think his hand could lose so he just called twice. I just fed a pot that had me smoked on flop/turn.
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