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10,000th post - Learn from my mistakes 10,000th post - Learn from my mistakes

05-07-2015 , 02:54 AM
I want to reply to some of this because A) it might help you, Chip, and B) I assume a lot of people will read this since you're pretty well known via the chat thread and your PGC, and I want to comment for their benefit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
And you HAVE to stay for 8 hours, because that's what a JOB is.
I disagree with this vehemently. You should play whenever you feel like you're on your A game, or at least B game, and your hourly in the game is at/above your normal rate. If you're in a bad game, have no transfer options and you've only played four hours, quitting probably beats playing. Likewise if you're tired, sick, angry, poker tilted, life tilted, etc, you've gotta be able to make the right call and quit.

On the other hand, if you're eight hours in and the lineup is great and you're playing well, you should keep playing.

You have to be disciplined enough to log good volume, but it doesn't have to be exactly eight hours five days a week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
2) Absolutely, positively manage your bankroll like your life depends on it.

Because it does. Nothing is more important than maintaining a comfortable amount of money in both your bankroll and your life roll.
I agree with this and I think most poker pros, at least at the 1/2 and 2/5 levels do a terrible job of it. In tough online games I think people need 100 buyins to be safe. In live games, it may not be that high, but it's AT LEAST 20 buyins, and that's if you crush for 10+bb/hr, and that's a poker roll, not a life roll (so add at least 6 months expenses). You can get away with less at lower stakes, but it's also really tough to grow a roll while living off of poker if you're playing 1/2 and 1/3. Lots of people struggle to make more than their monthly nut, then a life expense wipes them out before they can get to 2/5.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
3) If you have an opportunity to get something for free, do it.

Mostly, this means if your casino has any offer for you, take it. If they are giving you slot dollars as a reward, take them, use them and cash out the profit.
Beyond this, compare offers at different places and play accordingly. If there's a great high hand promo at Casino A on Mondays and Wednesdays, and it impacts your hourly enough, you should play there. Always look at those promos in terms of your expected hourly and decide accordingly.

As for free food, yeah, take it, but also you don't want to be eating total crap every day. Your points about not spending as much each day on the way home are great, I think a ton of people do this, in all walks of life, and it adds up so much. Planning ahead and packing a snack can save a ton of money and help you eat healthier, which I think a lot of poker players struggle with - and I think there is more at play than they realize. In addition to the unhealthy free food and sitting for long periods of time, there's decision fatigue and mental stress that can cause cravings for unhealthy food after a session.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
4) Choose your friends carefully.
This is huge in poker, and not just the way you were referring to with regard to lending money. There is like one person in poker I'd lend money to, and even that is in part because I know exactly how much he's good for and vice versa, and we trust each other, so we can safely lend. The only real scenario this comes up is when someone loses a few buyins in a good game and doesn't want to run out to the car, the room, the safe, etc.

But in addition, the influence your friends can have on you is big when you're running bad. Their support, and the way they impact your confidence, is huge. Also, if your friends have you out partying too much, taking too much time off, etc, that can be a negative. If you never do that stuff, though, that's bad too. Your social circle in poker is huge for balance.

Last but probably most important, surrounding yourself with players who think about the game well and hopefully in some different ways that you is HUGE for any poker player's development.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
5) Move around.

The best games probably aren't going to be at the nearest casino to you. That was very hard for me to comprehend at first. I have played at Harrah's Chester since it opened almost five years ago. I played at Delaware Park. I played at Parx. But, Harrah's is 4.5 miles from my apartment.

And it's not just proximity.

Don't be afraid to simply move around the country.
This applies more as you move up in stakes, but in the Mid-Atlantic it applies too since most people are within 1.5 hours of another good option... For Maryland folks, the Philly casinos, for Philly, Maryland and AC, etc. Moving around for tournament series (and the cash action that follows), promos, action, etc, is worth considering.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
I also know that I am a winning poker player. I have proven that to myself. However, I have also proven that I am not a big enough winner - yet - to make it.

But rest assured - I will make it.
That's big of you to be able to say that, but make sure you take the right actions to fulfill your commitment to making it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
$1/$2 NL ... 423 hours ... $5,796 profit ... $13.69/hr

$1/$3 NL ... 492 hours ... $6,614 profit ... $13.43/hr

$2/$5 NL ... 17 hours ... $1,605 loss ... -$92.86/hr

Those are stats since Sept. 1 when I started using a new program.
That's 5.8bb/hr. I've mentioned this to you before, but you really should get coaching. Not even to sell you my own services, but there are plenty of good coaches on 2p2 and/or good players who would probably do coaching if asked. You could easily add 3-5bb/hr with coaching, which is worthwhile even at 10 hours of play per week. I don't have a ton of hours in the 1/3 at SugarHouse, but from what I know it's probably beatable for a minimum 12bb/hr for the best players. I'm guessing the top player in that game probably makes 12-15bb/hr, and the really good players make 10-12bb/hr, and the next tier of winners makes 6-10bb/hr.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
I thought I had found a good schedule of play 4 days, take 2 days off and have 1 day to 'study.'
This is fine once you're established, but I still don't know if it's optimal. Sitting and studying anything for 6-10 hours straight is super boring. Studying an hour or so before playing each day and reviewing hands after you play is probably best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
I defined studying as anything I did to look at poker from a different angle, whether it was watching televised poker, watching Live at the Bike, reading and responding to strat threads on 2plus2, reading articles and watching videos on Crushlivepoker; watching free Cardrunners videos I could find, and, then, toward the end, watching players on Twitch.
I would consider very little of the above to be "studying." The videos count, the articles count assuming they're good - and I've heard good things about CLP. Strat threads you have to be careful that you're weighting advice from different users differently. Plenty of strategy advice on 2p2 threads is awful.

You didn't mention books, study groups or hand review and number crunching on your own, which are all top forms of study IMO.
10,000th post - Learn from my mistakes Quote
05-07-2015 , 10:15 PM
Very solid and insightful advice Chip. +1 to what others said about putting yourself out there honestly. Keep moving forward and we all hope to see you succeed.
10,000th post - Learn from my mistakes Quote
04-28-2016 , 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Chip, I have a lot of respect for your honesty with 2+2 about what is going on with your life. The vast majority of "pros" on 2+2 slink off when they run into trouble. Wish nothing but the best for you going forward.

My only question is: What do you think about Kelly packaging Bradford, Murray and their first round pick to the Titans for Mariota? Whitehurst has to be happier with a conventional QB and picking up the NFL's leading rusher. The draft is deep in WR and RB, the Eagles can pick up good ones in the later rounds.
Hindsight
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