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1/3NL Turned Set 1/3NL Turned Set

10-26-2017 , 09:48 AM
Hero ($450) -- Showing a TAG/LAG image. RFI pretty high. Showing mostly winners or taking down with no showdown but just lost a big hand a few hands earlier where a player 4b jammed me with TT vs my QQ, ran the board twice and he hit a T on both boards (FML). Lost about $190 there.

V1 ($350) -- Taking a beating with lots of re-ups. Looks to be mostly a passive fish with minimal aggression. I have position on him and have thoroughly outplayed him postflop.

V2 ($600) -- Looks to be competent, might be a local small stakes grinder. Haven't seen him make many mistakes. Takes advantage of position, and I've seen him make a few bets in last position against passive player checks to take down smaller pots. Seems to recognize weakness pretty well.

V1 limps in MP. Hero raises to $14 with 99 in the CO. V2 flats on BTN. Folds around and V1 calls.

Flop: $46
J62

V1 checks. Hero bets $22. V2 calls, V1 calls.

Turn: $112
9

V1 checks. Hero bets $80. V2 calls, V1 calls.

River: $342
4

V1 checks. Hero checks. V2 bets $100. V1 considers and calls.

Can Hero ever call here, especially after V1 calls? V2 has been betting over weakness IP on previous hands but has to expect a call from V1 or myself when he bets $100 into $342. I'm getting 5.42:1 on my money but I don't think I'm seeing a flush here less than 30-40% of the time.
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10-26-2017 , 12:20 PM
Not sure this is a good seat with this guy sitting to our immediate left?

I'm cool with the raise preflop, attempting to isolate the fish with a decent hand.

I'm cool with our cbet. Our hand might be good and it's vulnerable, and it could get paid off by worse. I'd love to get this HU against the fish; the Button calling really throws a wrench in things. I wouldn't absolutely hate a check/call due to Button being in the mix (who would likely have a wide betting range when checked to).

I probably bet more on the turn, really targetting the fish. Kinda surprised Button is still coming along, maybe turned a flush + straight draw?

With the fish in the hand and this being 3ways, I'm not sure Button is going to make a bluff this small. Really looks like a bet for value to me. I'm guessing fish would have simply led his flush, so I'm not too worried about the fact we'd be overcalling. You'd think we'd have heard from sets earlier that he could be betting for value? The river shouldn't have completed any two pairs that could be making an extremely thin value bet.

Gross spot. Great odds. But I probably lean towards a sigh fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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10-26-2017 , 01:07 PM
AP I think this is a tough spot. Against V2 it is tough to put a lot 2p hands into V2 range. You beat - AhJx for 3 combos that might go for thin value. Maybe KhJx. Could he play that? And lower sets. You lose to a good number of HH hands. AXhh, a few Kxhh, and some SC HH. Against that range you probably have oods to call but its not a slam dunk if V2 doesnt value bet AhJx here. I assume JJ+ and some bigger hands never got to this river obv. Maybe AKhh or or more likely AQhh.

But V1 definitely throws a wrench into this. It is hard to put anything but a flush into his range. It hard to put anything into his range you beat other than a very weird bluff catcher type of call with a weakish J. I just dont see it.

Tough to fold a set though. I think against V2 its probably ok to call, against V2+V1 call, its a fold. Ugh i dont think this outcome though.
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10-26-2017 , 02:58 PM
Very tough fold, but I think it's the right play. You might be able to beat one of them, but I doubt you can beat two. Will be sick to see them show up with worse, though!
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10-26-2017 , 03:30 PM
Picking up..

Hero goes in the tank for a moment. I'm closing the action so I let out an audible chuckle at my misfortune. I look at V2 and he's quiet. I know he's a good player which makes this more difficult.

"I can't believe I'm going to fold this," as I look at V2. Doesn't even blink. I don't know what I was looking for anyway, since I'm sure he has a flush. Whatever tell I got was probably just going to be tailored to the decision I was already going to make anyway.

"OK, I know this is the wrong play, hopefully you'll give these back to me later," and I drop a black chip in and V2 predictably tables Q8hh. I knew before he turned his cards over that I made a mistake, and I don't know why I called. I want to admit this is a leak to be fixed but I think I would usually find a fold here.

I never got to see V1's hand but I can't take flushes out of his range. Sure, maybe he should donk bet the river to ensure some value (at least considering a B/F if he gets raised by V2 if his flush is small), but being passive and with 2 Vs behind him he's probably happier with a check/call. I think he played it right based on his image because nobody on that table would have called his river donk bet for any sizing.
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10-27-2017 , 10:16 PM
I would bet bigger on turn. River is a fold with the over call.
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