Hero ($360, BU): Young Indian, has been playing the tightest at the table, but I doubt anyone has noticed that much. In fact, I'm probably viewed as loose simply because I've been in for a raise in most pots I enter, whilst the rest of the table has been very limp happy. Built my stack with a set against TP+NFD earlier on, but have been having to c/f a decent amount of flops recently due to sticky opponents on wet boards which I whiffed.

V (Covers, CO): Young Asian. Has been very loose passive, been limp-calling pretty much every time I raised, and plays loose-passive post-flop. He built his stack after limp-calling QQ pre, then c/cing 1/2 PSB every street on an A-hi flop against a spewy player who is not in this hand. The only time he showed aggression was when he donked pot in a 3-way pot with a flopped two pair after he limp-called pre with Q4o. He seems to fold weak draws or pairs to a second barrel though, with the exception of the QQ hand, which I suspect was a case of 'ZOMG I HAZ QQ'. Won't ever fold TP+ obviously. In the QQ hand he gave off a bit of a tell before limping though.


Action:

1/3NL

Folded to V in CO who limps, hero raises to $15 w/KdTd, blinds fold, V calls. He did not give off the tell he had when he limped with QQ.

Flop ($34): A 8 2

V checks, Hero bets $22. V calls after thinking briefly.

I felt this flop action was fairly standard since it's hard for V to connect with this board, and since he donked with 2P earlier, his range was capped to one pair here.

Turn ($78): Q

V Checks, hero?


On the one hand, unless V has TP, he's probably folding to another barrel here. On the other hand, V is never folding an A, and his flop calling range is largely weighted to pairs since it's so dry.

Double barrel here, or check behind and try to bink one of 12 (possibly 18) outs?

Definitely check.

Most important, he's super duper loose/passive. He's not folding enough.

Also, I'm sure he likes playing Ax pre, and he's definitely not folding Ax on the turn.

Don't try to make this guy fold. Just bink and value bet.

Only saw the title. Yes.

A bet on the turn will fold out better since he will be hard-pressed to continue with 8x, though he is calling with Ax for sure. I think since this V is very passive he will rarely raise this turn; so I don't mind a double barrel here since it will build a pot and it will fold out better such as 89,K8, etc... Since we won't be raised off our draw very often, we will only bet river if we hit a or an off-suit ten since his hand will be face up as Ax and will be unlikely to fold the river if we bet.

Bet turn, as it often folds out hands that beat you (though not TP) and sets up playing for stacks if he calls and you bink river.

Done with hand if he calls and you don't bink river.

+1.

We're 12/44 to hit our straight or flush. If V holds one of our outs we're 11/44 but will be in an even better situation when we do bink because V will then have 2 pair and may bet/call for stacks rather than x/c a bet from us. The strong implied odds alone give us a pretty good reason to bet here, and the opportunity to fold out some hands (98, 55, 44, etc) makes this a pretty ideal spot to turn barrel IMHO.

Seems like the consensus is to bet the turn here. Here's the results (I don't think there is anything up for debate after this decision):

Hero bets $60, V check-raises to $125.

I called since my fold equity is pretty much zero, and I have direct odds to hit my 11 clean outs, as well as a tonne of implied odds.

River ($328): J

V bets $125, hero shoves, V tank calls and doesn't show.

this, get him to fold an 8. and draw is quite disguised if we catch and get called by an ace on the river.
you also said you have check given up quite often, so double barreling should look strong, i say should as he may not of even paid enough attention to notice

Nice hit. WP, imo. I would have bet turn a tidge smaller, but that's picking nits.

Preflop looks standard.

I would probably bet less on the flop, maybe even a lol "same bet" of $15. The bet size, so long as it is reasonable, will make no difference as to whether this guy folds or calls, so let's do it as cheap as possible.

Villain is unlikely to fold an A, but he'll probably fold most other pairs thanks to a second overcard now coming. I would probably bet on the smallish side, something like $25. Again, he's probably folding or he's not to any reasonable bet, and even though the bet is small he also has to be scared that we are milking him and setting him up for a big river bet. A small 1/3 PSB also gives us correct immediate odds to chase, so add in our FE and this should be profitable.

My plan would be to give up on the river if I whiff.

The most debatable river card would be a K (perhaps even a T) and whether or not we have an extremely thin value bet.

ETA: I really dislike the turn bet sizing. Against this Villain, we don't have to worry about a weak bet sizing inducing a bluff/raise, so let's bet it weak. Also, thanks to most villain's terrible raise sizing, he'll often give us tremendous correct odds to continue (lol, very good chance a check/raise vs a 1/3 PSB is <<< potsize) with lots of stacks left. Also, the larger the turn bet, the way more often he has to fold for this to be profitable; and, really, is there any real difference to what he folds vs a $25 bet vs a $60?

GpickingnitsG