Player Descriptions:

V (Covers): 20s Asian woman, has been playing from what I've seen so far a fairly text-book TAG style of play, with her pretty much always coming in for a raise, having 3-bet 3 times so far during the 4 hour session, and definitely playing more pots in position. Sizes her bets well based upon pot size. Has only shown down one hand which was KK after a short-stack 3b shoved about $80 over her open to $15. Given that she has not limped at all during the session, I would expect her to have an online background. However, she has not played any hands for the past hour or so, and may be getting bored/tilty as we'll see in the hand.

Hero ($300-ish): 20s Indian, has been playing probably fewest hands at the table, largely due to being card-dead. V has seen me open A7o and A9o from late position before, so she likely knows that I'm card-dead as well. I've 3-bet twice so far in this session, both times against a loose opener, neither time went to showdown.

Table Dynamics:

Two players at the table (including UTG+1) have been opening a tonne of pots from all positions, and generally not folding to 3-bets. The rec players at the table have adjusted to them by calling more opens, whilst myself, V, and another TAG have been adjusting by tightening up and 3-betting more often.



Pre-Hand:

V is UTG and places out $6 before any cards are dealt. This is the first time she's done this all night, and as such I suspect she is getting bored/tilted. I then talk UTG+1 into putting out $15 as well. There has been no blind raising at the table before this at all infact.


Hand (8 handed):

Hero has TT

V blind raises $6 UTG, UTG+1 blind raises $15, hero raises to $40, folded to V who raises to $100, UTG+1 folds...

Hero?




My thoughts:

If V is tilted, then it's an easy GII I'd imagine. How much can we read into a single blind raise here?

If V is not tilted, would she be realising we're only 20BB effective, and as such 3B with a wider range? She's most likely capable of adjusting her 3B range based upon opponents and situations from what I've seen so far. If she realises we're 20BB eff, she'd probably make this move with 88+, AQ+, which TT fares OK against (47.5%).

However there's a good chance that V might still view this as $300, rather than 20BB, and as such her 3B range here would revert to the standard LLSNL QQ+, AK, which crushes TT.

Put simply, I'm asking two questions here:

1) Is V tilted here?

2) If V is not tilted here, what is her 3B range?

1) Like any of us would possibly know if villain is tilted.

2) Who knows man. I think you're playing, "She knows, I know that she knows, and she knows that I know" game without any prior evidence.

She hasn't played a hand in an hour and I'm sure there have been spots for her to "make a move" in that hour, but she didn't. Not sure why you think she's all of a sudden making a move this hand but not the previous 30 hands.

Unless she didn't look at her hand when she raised to 100, this is an easy fold.

Such a tricky spot, imo.

Yeah, thanks to the straddles we're just playing 20bbs deep. However, lots of players don't see it this way, and still just simply see it as playing $300 deep (so when they put in 1/3rd of their stack preflop, they've got nuttish hands). Kinda like when it is folded to a person in LP; when some players raise in this spot, we can still put them on a tight range of TT+/AK, cuz that's simply all they raise (and it doesn't matter whether it's been folded to them in LP or not).

So the question is whether she is aware of this or not, and whether she is really aware of our image (noting our light iso attempts in LP), or whether she is otherwise just getting smacked in the face preflop with big hands (3 3bets in 4 hours isn't exactly a lot of 3betting, it's very possible she just had the ~nuts in these cases).

This might be a totally sexist comment to make, but for the most part I just read tight women players as straightforward ABC players until I have some real proof otherwise. The only hand she's shown in a big pot is KK.

I fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is messy to begin with. After you talk UTG+1 into blind reraising, who knows? V may think your trying to play some game and be playing back at you with ATC or she could be in a tight range in what is still a 4 bet pot. At that point this situation is so meta-game and your hand so smack in the middle of the grey area that this could be a shove or a fold. The 5 bet makes this one or the other, you can't flat here. I would lean fold simply because V probably would have shoved herself if she really wanted you out.

This is a fist pump. You raised a double straddled pot that you instigated. Please don't fold.

X2. All in button please.

If she's bored enough to be UTG straddling then likely she's bored enough to 3bet AQs, AKs, AJo, JJ+ here. If she folds out all 4 combos of AQs, 1 combo of JJ, and 3 combos of AKo then she's folding 8/44 combos.
We are 32% vs the range she calls with.

So:
( 8/44 * + $161 ) + ( 36/44 * .32 * + $361 ) + ( 36/44 * .68 * -$260 ) = -$21.73

Seems like a fold maybe?

Your math is correct but your range is too tight in a double straddled pot that we instigated and villain distinctly straddled UTG which is a sign of brewing entitlement tilt.

Also I believe you mean AKo* not AJo. Just calling it out in case anyone gets confused.

Now that the process has been clearly worked out OP can work backwards with different assumptions for villain's 1) 3bet range and 2) call it off range.

A fist pump was an exaggeration on my part but I'm just never folding here.

ya it's not a fist pump but I couldn't fold this and calling is probably dumb.....

Saying that you "can't fold this" could be a leak of getting married to the absolute strength of your hands.
Saying that we "shouldn't fold this" is a bit different, and would imply that we've done a range analysis and we thnk that we are ahead or getting the right price when behind.

Just good for thought.

If it's a blind 5 bet then shove. If she looked its a fold. Easily.

Results, although I'm not sure if they actually mean much about her range:

Hero shoves, v calls w/qq and holds.


Oh, and irtm, I'm fairly sure that our FE here is zero, given that she will be getting 2:1 on a call.

If this is the case vs the range you provided then this IS a fist pump shove.

OP I think the answer lies in your villain description, which I read as solid. Think of her bet size against your $40 raise. It is not indicative of a size generated to make you fold. She put 33% of her stack in and you have never seen her spew.